Any speculations on what will 3 year old Leafs sell for?

[Stunt822]

Maybe some one gave it some thought, or has some arguments/analogies - what could possibly used , let's say off lease Leaf drll for?

 

[derkraut]

Maybe some one gave it some thought, or has some arguments/analogies - what could possibly used , let's say off lease Leaf drll for?

Impossible to provide a meaningful $ figure, imho. We have no basis of fact.

 

[cdub]

2k less than the lease residual.

I have no idea. I'm sure dealers would love to take it because they can probably swap in a new battery for much cheaper than we can and then viola - new car!

 

[charlie1300]

Wouldn't we all love to have the answer to that question - amongst other things, it would greatly help with making a choice between lease and purchase. But at this point, any number you pick is as good as any other.

 

[mitch672]

it really depnds on 4 factors:

listed most important to least important:

#1 replacement cost for the battery back in 3 years. Certainly the original pack will have some diminished capacity, how much will a replacement cost?

#2 Is there still a $7500 federal rebate? Not likely, so this is bound to push the price up

#3 What is the new model (2014) Leaf selling for? Are there any major pack improvements, such as increased battery life or charge cycles or capacity? These will tend to lower the price of a used Gen 1 Leaf. Of course along with this the new model pricing will also come into play.

#4 What is the demand? who would buy a 3 year old EV? they would have to accept a reduced capacity battery, so around town use would be fine, local cab company's etc might be in the market, etc.

I think those are most of the factors, time will tell the rest of the story.

 

[Boomer23]

it really depnds on 4 factors:

listed most important to least important:

#1 replacement cost for the battery back in 3 years. Certainly the original pack will have some diminished capacity, how much will a replacement cost?

#2 Is there still a $7500 federal rebate? Not likely, so this is bound to push the price up

#3 What is the new model (2014) Leaf selling for? Are there any major pack improvements, such as increased battery life or charge cycles or capacity? These will tend to lower the price of a used Gen 1 Leaf. Of course along with this the new model pricing will also come into play.

#4 What is the demand? who would buy a 3 year old EV? they would have to accept a reduced capacity battery, so around town use would be fine, local cab company's etc might be in the market, etc.

I think those are most of the factors, time will tell the rest of the story.

And #5: What is the public opinion of EVs in general and LEAF in particular in 3 years? Remember the high regard in which Toyota products were held for many years until this year's spate of poor publicity. Now Toyota is having a hard time with sales. They're giving away free maintenance plans and spending millions on advertising to recoup some of their previous image. Nobody has any way of knowing what the used car buying public will think of a used LEAF in 3 years. [A big reason why I'm leasing.]

And #6: What is the cost of gasoline and have we had a fuel crisis by then?

 

[Coffee_Slurry]

Here's another factor: If the Leaf underwhelms, a 3yr old leaf being sold by a private seller will be competing with all the off-lease ones.

The potential end (or increase) of subsidies is a big factor. I can't see how CA is going to continue to fund subsidies if EVs are still selling well in three years.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

$20-24,000. mostly because the new 2014 does now have a 150 mile range but cost $34,000 and the runaway popularity which has caused waiting lists over a year in some areas has allowed incentives for purchase to be removed with the money now used to beef up the charging infrastructure to meet the demand which is still growing at better than 20% per year.

the used sale price was bolstered after several fleet owners reported hitting 100,000 miles with only a 10% degradation of the range.

average cost to purchase a double digit number for the wait in So cal; $3000 on e-bay. for a single digit number; $10,000.

when asked if it was too much to pay; the last e-bay winner who expects delivery of his Leaf in under 2 weeks with his winning $9300 bid to be #12 on the waiting list responded: not really. it will still be cheaper than my RAV 4 EV i bought in 2004 for $50,000

 

[smkettner]

MSRP

 

[TRONZ]

Like any car... as much as you can get!

 

[LEAFfan]

it really depnds on 4 factors:

listed most important to least important:

#1 replacement cost for the battery back in 3 years. Certainly the original pack will have some diminished capacity, how much will a replacement cost?

#2 Is there still a $7500 federal rebate? Not likely, so this is bound to push the price up

#3 What is the new model (2014) Leaf selling for? Are there any major pack improvements, such as increased battery life or charge cycles or capacity? These will tend to lower the price of a used Gen 1 Leaf. Of course along with this the new model pricing will also come into play.

#4 What is the demand? who would buy a 3 year old EV? they would have to accept a reduced capacity battery, so around town use would be fine, local cab company's etc might be in the market, etc.

I think those are most of the factors, time will tell the rest of the story.

And #5: What is the public opinion of EVs in general and LEAF in particular in 3 years? Remember the high regard in which Toyota products were held for many years until this year's spate of poor publicity. Now Toyota is having a hard time with sales. They're giving away free maintenance plans and spending millions on advertising to recoup some of their previous image. Nobody has any way of knowing what the used car buying public will think of a used LEAF in 3 years. [A big reason why I'm leasing.]

And #6: What is the cost of gasoline and have we had a fuel crisis by then?

I would put #6 number 1. If gasoline is above $3, the value will go WAY up.

 

[xRB]

The hard part is guessing who will be the potential buyers. Most potential buyers will not have chargers, so how many will be willing to put up $2000+ to buy a charger for a used car? My guess is that the people driven by eco-motives will buy a new Leaf, rather than used, though maybe there are a few who will look at a used version. The other big uncertainty is how much battery capacity and thus range will be left. Will it be 5 years at 80 miles range, or will range already be 40-50 miles with anticipated further decline, thereby making the used Leaf not good for much more than short commutes to and from work. Putting these factors together, my guess is that the price of a 3-year-old Leaf will be the price of a 3-year-old Honda Civic, less $2000 for the charger, less 50% of the remainder for the limited range. I don't consider this estimate pessimistic, just the price of buying a new car of a kind where there are lots of installation issues and newer versions with greater capacity will be rapidly coming on the market. That is, more sellers than buyers.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

ok, most of you probably think my first post was done in jest. i personally feel that it portrays an accurate picture of 2014. but for all you fence-sitters, i can also push a version of hopefuls, what ifs, etc...

#1) chargers will not be $2000.

2)the value of Priuses went up over $5,000 when gas hit $4 a gallon. expect Leafs to go up at least that much

3) in most areas, one can typically save more than 7 cents per mile on EV. (that is just about 6 cents per mile in gas (considering electrical rates at 15 cents/kwh for a car getting 30 mpg plus oil) which equates to just under a grand a year CASH BACK (and this is the best kind of cash back since it never leaves your wallet). for the ones who have solar, you are simply very stupid if you are not already on the list.

4) Nissan to provide a 100,000 warranty means that; 1) their tests probably show that on average, they are getting double that which means that *most* battery packs wont even come close to failing under the warranty specs or 2) they are very stupid, lied about the batteries and are only putting out the warranty info to applease customers. something they will regret later

*A* is my prediction and in 3 years, that will be common knowledge.

5) in 2014 since we will be stupid enough to give control back to republicans, we will be buyin Alberta tar sands oil, gas will be $5 a gallon and 10 year old Priuses with 250,000 on their OEM battery packs will be selling for 10% over MSRP

 

[mwalsh]

I'm with Dave....if the stars align - gas prices go sky high; our LEAF battery packs are holding up well; there are still limited new offerings from other manufacturers (or even Nissan themselves); prices of new vehicles haven't come down to the point where many can afford them, particularly if incentives have all but disappeared..... Well under those circumstances we could well see prices holding at or very close to what we had to outlay. Maybe even more for a well looked after example with low usage.

 

[garygid]

The factors above are all very important. But, chances are most of them will not change a LOT in 3 years (but certainly COULD).

The BIGGEST issue in my mind is the remaining battery capacity, and how a buyer might have that tested or verified. The other performance factors, car falling apart, motor or inverter failing, etc. are not likely.

The second most important issue is the perception of the LEAF presented by "the press". If a few issues are sensationalized by pro-oil forces, the EV reputation, like that of the Stanley Steamer, could be ... poor.

I am guessing about $15,500 plus fees, tax, and license.

The residual on the lease returns might tend to stabilize any smaller upward price trend, but enduring performance levels could make the LEAF a STAR. Substantially decreased performance is likely to make the "used" EV a hard sell, unless it is retrofitted with an "improved" battery pack.

As battery packs hold 50% more kWh, 3.3 kW charging times will grow from 8 to 12 hours, and the (approx.) 7 kW chargers (and 32-amp EVSEs) will be necessaey, but plug-in EVSEs (and installing a socket for them) will be much less expensive.

So, the 3-year used market price is basically unpredictable with the information we have available here.

 

[Stunt822]

Thanks for all the thoughts, some food for brain.
Let me pick on word "charger" used for EVSE. It is just a plug adapter, and should be available off ebay for $200 in it's primitive form. Charger is inside the car.

My main worry is acceptance of EVs by general public. Except OEVA members, I don't know anyone who said they would buy one. Most people want unlimited range, high power or just don't bother switching.

While gas is below $4 - payback period is too long for average person. And people who would want to save money - would rather byuy used civic for $10k, so they can sell in 2 years later for $8k

 

[gudy]

In california, carpool stickers are also going to play a role.

I personally know a guy who bought a brand new prius about 2 years ago, to the exact specs of what an existing prius owner wanted, simply to exchange the two cars because the "old" prius had the carpool sticker on it.
I don't know how many of the new stickers are going to be allocated for pure electric vehicles, but when they run out, cars with the sticker might be worth (to some) as much as a brand new model.
There's a lot of money in the bay area (and LA), but there aren't that many ways that this money can help you save 1 hour of commute everyday... that is worth a lot to people with no time and lots of money.

 

[Ready2plugin]

In california, carpool stickers are also going to play a role.

I personally know a guy who bought a brand new prius about 2 years ago, to the exact specs of what an existing prius owner wanted, simply to exchange the two cars because the "old" prius had the carpool sticker on it.
I don't know how many of the new stickers are going to be allocated for pure electric vehicles, but when they run out, cars with the sticker might be worth (to some) as much as a brand new model.
There's a lot of money in the bay area (and LA), but there aren't that many ways that this money can help you save 1 hour of commute everyday... that is worth a lot to people with no time and lots of money.

I have to admit that is one of the major reasons I'm purchasing an EV. I have a sticker now with my Civic Hybrid and the extra hour I get to spend with my 4 year old and 4 month old each day is priceless. I believe there is no limit on the pure EV and CNG stickers (the white ones via bill AB 1500), but there is a 40k sticker limit on the Plug-in Hybrids via bill SB 535.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

just filled up with gas on my Pri. figuring that will be cut to less than a 1/3rd here when the Leaf shows up. as soon as i get in the car on the radio they are announcing gas price increase for 3rd month in a row. wonder how long that will go on? doesnt gas usually go DOWN in winter?

 

[Nubo]

Most potential buyers will not have chargers, so how many will be willing to put up $2000+ to buy a charger for a used car?

Yes, Nissan really need to work on getting that aspect cleaned up. The hoops that early adopters are jumping through, and the cost, are daunting. Cost needs to be cut by at least half, and the hassle by at least 3/4, imho.