4th Bar Lost, Warranty Denied!

[TimLee]

More succinctly, Nissan's letter about the capacity warranty was a colossal lie.
(At least in most ethical individuals and corporations definition of the word lie.)

 

[electricfuture]

A very large percentage of people with a LEAF will not lose four capacity bars (<66.25%) before five years or 60,000 miles.
My guess is it may be 95%.

I disagree Tim - just had my 2011 battery replaced at 43k. I depends on your location temperature variations, average speed and elevation changes. Here in San Diego weather is not a factor, but having to take the highway every where and the constant elevation changes do impact the battery's range. I started out with 80% charging but after 2 years had to go to 100% due to loss of range. I re-charged only when the battery bars were in the red - the dealership complimented me for doing so.

So in the end it was the number of deep charge re-cycles that put the battery into an early grave. If you drive flat land as a commuter in a moderate climate I agree with you but I am really sure this will not be the case for 95% of the drivers. Here I see young mothers chauffeuring their kids and shopping all the time - not just commuting. The vehicle's utility is leading to more and more general use.

I believe based on my experience that more than half of the 2011 battery packs are not going to make 60,000 miles. We are at the beginning of an exponential replacement curve! It will be interesting to see just how many 2011 Leafs actually make it to 60,000 miles.

 

[Stoaty]

I disagree Tim - just had my 2011 battery replaced at 43k. I depends on your location temperature variations, average speed and elevation changes. Here in San Diego weather is not a factor...

I believe based on my experience that more than half of the 2011 battery packs are not going to make 60,000 miles.

Weather is definitely a factor, as San Diego has a temperature aging factor very close to Los Angeles Civic Center (per Battery Aging Model). If you lived in Seattle or the Northeast, I would say weather was not a factor. The percent of 2011 battery packs that don't make 60,000 miles will depend on location, and secondarily on the amount of deep cycling. In cool climates like Seattle or the Northeast the percentage of replacements will be low, perhaps 5%. In Phoenix it will probably be 95%. In San Diego I would guess perhaps 25%, but a lot of the remaining 75% will become 4 bar losers during year 6.

 

[TimLee]

Does anyone have a tabulation of the 2011 and 2012 sales by location so we can use Stoaty's excellent model to calculate a bit more definitive calculation of what % will not qualify for the 66.25% capacity degradation warranty?

A factor in my 95% guess is the data from the thread on auction sale prices.
It also gives mileage and they are lower than what some people are expecting.
Of course a large % of them are lease returns, so isn't too surprising they are relatively low miles.

 

[leafkabob]

Does anyone have a tabulation of the 2011 and 2012 sales by location so we can use Stoaty's excellent model to calculate a bit more definitive calculation of what % will not qualify for the 66.25% capacity degradation warranty?

A factor in my 95% guess is the data from the thread on auction sale prices.
It also gives mileage and they are lower than what some people are expecting.
Of course a large % of them are lease returns, so isn't too surprising they are relatively low miles.

If you go to this link, http://classaction.kccllc.net/content.aspx?c=5619&sh=1 you will links to lots of interesting documents that were filed in the class action lawsuit. One of them, http://classaction.kccllc.net/Docum...otion for Attorneys Fees Final) conformed.pdf is the Declaration of Colin Johns, an accountant hired by Plaintiffs to put a value on the settlement.
Exhibit 1 to his declaration is an accounting of how he arrived at the $38,394,900 value of the settlement.
Exhibit 3 to his declaration is a breakdown by state of the number of vehicles in each state and whether each state is a "hot weather state" or a "not hot weather state."

In Exh. 1 he states that there are 12,648 vehicles in HW states and 5,940 in NHW states, for a total of 18,588 total vehicles in the "class."

He reckons that 25% of vehicles in HW states will drop to 8 bars and that 5% of vehicles in NHW states will drop to 8 bars. That translates to 3,162 cars in HW states and 297 in NHW states, for a total of 3,459 total cars that will need new batteries under the warranty.

Because he values the batteries at $9,600 each, and estimates that it will cost the dealers $1,500 to install each one, he arrived at a total cost to replace a battery at $11,100 each.

3,459 X 11,100 = 38,394,900

 

[Stoaty]

He reckons that 25% of vehicles in HW states will drop to 8 bars and that 5% of vehicles in NHW states will drop to 8 bars.

I agree with those numbers.

PS I didn't read that information before making my guess.

 

[TimLee]

Thanks Kelly.

3,459÷18,588
=18.6%
Projected by accountant hired by the class action attorney to qualify for capacity warranty replacement.

About in line with how the badly broken class action process works.
Get some compensation for less than one in five in the class, and nothing for the rest of the class who were also harmed.

 

[edatoakrun]

...He reckons that 25% of vehicles in HW states will drop to 8 bars and that 5% of vehicles in NHW states will drop to 8 bars...

The document indicates he did not reckon the percentages of vehicles requiring replacement.

As clearly stated, the writer assumed those rates of replacement, and plugged in costs for both the battery and replacement that, IMO, seem to be unrealistically high.

This statement was from a witness paid by the class action lawyers, to make their large fees appear to be a reasonable percentage of the total class benefit, and the lawyers, IMO, got what they paid for.

 

[leafkabob]

...He reckons that 25% of vehicles in HW states will drop to 8 bars and that 5% of vehicles in NHW states will drop to 8 bars...

The document indicates he did not reckon the percentages of vehicles requiring replacement.

As clearly stated, the writer assumed those rates of replacement, and plugged in costs for both the battery and replacement that, IMO, seem to be unrealistically high.

This statement was from a witness paid by the class action lawyers, to make their large fees appear to be a reasonable percentage of the total class benefit, and the lawyers, IMO, got what they paid for.

I agree with your last two sentences Ed. In fact, I would say that you reckon his conclusion was based on his assumptions.