2016 Nissan LEAF Information - 30 kWh SV/SL, 24 kWh S

[GetOffYourGas]

On one hand, it's nice to see that Nissan isn't just resting and that innovations are still happening. On the other, it's very frustrating to see that when my lease is up in another two years, my only viable option for a replacement that will allow me to finally get rid of the ICE is probably still going to be a Tesla.

What makes you come to that conclusion ? Gen 2 will come out next year (MY17) - I expect Ghosn "Yes" to doubling the range to stand.

Speaking for myself, to finally get ride of an ICE, I need both range and infrastructure. On average, once a month I exceed the single-charge range of even a Tesla Model S 85. What makes all the difference is the proliferation of superchargers. I just don't see that happening with CHAdeMO or CCS in 2 years in the areas I would need them.

 

[evnow]

Speaking for myself, to finally get ride of an ICE, I need both range and infrastructure. On average, once a month I exceed the single-charge range of even a Tesla Model S 85. What makes all the difference is the proliferation of superchargers. I just don't see that happening with CHAdeMO or CCS in 2 years in the areas I would need them.

Well, obviously then, this change is irrelevant to you.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Speaking for myself, to finally get ride of an ICE, I need both range and infrastructure. On average, once a month I exceed the single-charge range of even a Tesla Model S 85. What makes all the difference is the proliferation of superchargers. I just don't see that happening with CHAdeMO or CCS in 2 years in the areas I would need them.

Well, obviously then, this change is irrelevant to you.

Well, yes and no. I was really just giving one possible answer to your question.

These changes are "irrelevant" to me only in that I am not in the market for a new car right now. It would, however, make a difference in the usability of the car for me. Even though it would not replace ICE completely, even 30kWh would offset more ICE miles. It's not often, but I do occasionally drive ~100 miles to the Fingerlakes and back, without convenient charging along the way. Also, my sister lives about 90 miles away, with hills between - too far with 24kWh, but doable with 30kWh. Currently I take the ICE for those handful of trips.

Doubling the range would offset yet more mile for me. But it still will not be enough for me to visit my family 250 miles away at Christmas or Thanksgiving time, both of which trips are invariably through a snow storm. A Tesla would work because of the supercharger network.

 

[GRA]

I doubt that they're in a foul mood, as Soul EV owners know they have an extra 5 years/40k miles of 70% battery capacity warranty compared to the LEAF. The LEAF's range increase is useful, but certainly doesn't put to rest doubts about the long-term viability of the battery absent adequate real-world experience. Now, if Nissan were to improve the warranty as well as increase the battery size, that would be a different matter.

Anyone buying EVs not named Tesla at this stage are in a weird minority. Almost everyone leases.

Soul EV (atleast here, it looks like) is going to be significantly higher street priced - given low availability. Combined with smaller trunk - and tiny user base, the choice looks clear to me.

Yes, most people lease, which is why I've said that the LEAF is a 'three years and throw it away car'. With the Soul's warranty, assuming the 70% range in your conditions (65 miles minus whatever allowances you make for heat, wet roads reserve etc.) is adequate, buying it can be a reasonable choice. You know you've got at least a decade (or 100k miles) of use, or it's on Kia. With only a 5 yr./60k warranty and cars routinely lasting only about three years for what they were bought for, leasing is the only reasonable option for most LEAF owners.

 

[asimba2]

I am hoping Nissan offers even further incentives to buy our cars out of lease once the 2017 cars come out. I am already considering buying my 2013 with the $5,000 rebate ($9,200 purchase price). Let's say I could buy my car for $7,200. The way I see it, I choose between an 80 mile car for $7,200 vs a 150 mile gen2 car for 4X more money.

 

[Bazooka]

...

Gen 1 EVs are essentially obsolete when Gen 2 comes out. Used prices will be like what happens to 3 year old laptops - even if they work perfectly fine.

...

Bingo. This is why I've been referring to the coming arrival of G2 EVs as the EV Singularity. This is very different from the usual situation we see in the car business, when there are typically no more than incremental changes from one generation to the next of any given model. We're seeing a major step-change in functionality, one that will greatly increase the perceived desirability of EVs. I think it will be amusing in a couple of years when the newcomers to the rEVolution start telling us old timers about how great EVs are, how much they save on fuel and maintenance costs, etc.

 

[BernieTx]

I am hoping Nissan offers even further incentives to buy our cars out of lease once the 2017 cars come out. I am already considering buying my 2013 with the $5,000 rebate ($9,200 purchase price). Let's say I could buy my car for $7,200. The way I see it, I choose between an 80 mile car for $7,200 vs a 150 mile gen2 car for 4X more money.

Is $29,000 for a 150mile range EV realistic? How much profit does Nissan make an the entry model S EV today, with half that range, and is the cost of batteries really coming down that fast?

 

[desiv]

Is $29,000 for a 150mile range EV realistic? How much profit does Nissan make an the entry model S EV today, with half that range, and is the cost of batteries really coming down that fast?

Well, that's still $29k with a tax rebate, so retail would be more like $35k.
I think that's reachable.. (or will be)
It's possible that Nissan could choose to lose some money for a while on this, until the sales ramp up..
I do think the used market will affect sales of new, even 150 mile+, Leafs.
Right now, plenty of people "could" use an EV with a 60 mile range, but concerns about range anxiety and other issues make it not worth the $20k-$30k or so for a new vehicle.
But $10k used? I think, especially people looking for a 2nd car, kids car, etc.. That might be worth it to more people.

I think that will slow the purchase of the 2nd gen Leafs a bit.
I don't think it will last too long, as once people get more comfortable with a range that works for most people (assuming the 2nd gen meets that) word of mouth will spread that it's a fine commuter car..

I'm still not convinced that 150 or even 200 will make it a viable (in the publics group mind) "only" car for most situations. My gut tells me that number is closer to 300 miles. So I still don't see more full adoption until possibly Gen3. Which is why I think Nissan might have to take some more financial hits growing the market for a bit longer.
Every battery jump is going to cost, and it will take time to get to the economy of scale needed to recoup..

desiv

 

[Bazooka]

The topic of how/when an EV has enough range to be seen as a viable "only car" is a real can of worms. The answer depends a lot on each driver's/household's circumstances, of course, but it also is heavily influenced by market psychology. In my situation, my wife and I get along just fine with a 2013 S for maybe 95% or more of trips, but we can't rely on it for our only car because of occasional long trips to and through areas with almost no QC support. So my wife's Civic is with us for the foreseeable future. But wait, I can hear people saying, wouldn't it be more economical to have just one car and rent when we need a long-distance vehicle? Yes, it would, and I have raised that very point and lost the ensuing discussion enough times that it's now a verboten topic in our house.

I expect that we won't reach the point of EVs being perceived by mainstream consumers as viable only cars until there's a nearly ubiquitous QC infrastructure, and one that's quick enough to be usable. E.g. very few drivers will want to wait an hour or longer to recharge in the middle of nowhere while as part of a long drive. This is why I think we need to look at three distinct travel modes:

1. Complete round trip without public charging. (Essentially how I use my Leaf now.)
2. Long trip with en-route charging at a used-to-be-gas station.
3. Long trip with enough destination charging to make the return trip.

The last one above can often be accommodated by chargers at a place of employment, hotel, airport, etc. when the vehicle will have to sit for hours or even days even if not charging. The second is the challenge, as it requires really quick charging, with the attendant issue of shortening battery pack life.

 

[Stanton]

This is why I think we need to look at three distinct travel modes:

1. Complete round trip without public charging. (Essentially how I use my Leaf now.)
2. Long trip with en-route charging at a used-to-be-gas station.
3. Long trip with enough destination charging to make the return trip.

I have (and continue) to operate in modes #1 & #3. In fact, I continue to tell folks looking @EV's that it can't be your only vehicle. Basically, the target market is 2+ car families with an attached garage (for over night charging).
I also think the "Nissan bashing" is over done considering the capacity warranty/battery replacement program (with what appears to be a "better" battery) is in full swing (forced or not).

 

[GRA]

...
Gen 1 EVs are essentially obsolete when Gen 2 comes out. Used prices will be like what happens to 3 year old laptops - even if they work perfectly fine.
...

Bingo. This is why I've been referring to the coming arrival of G2 EVs as the EV Singularity. This is very different from the usual situation we see in the car business, when there are typically no more than incremental changes from one generation to the next of any given model. We're seeing a major step-change in functionality, one that will greatly increase the perceived desirability of EVs. I think it will be amusing in a couple of years when the newcomers to the rEVolution start telling us old timers about how great EVs are, how much they save on fuel and maintenance costs, etc.

I couldn't agree more. In fact, I've been saying for several years now that it wouldn't be until we saw BEVs with 150 miles EPA range @ $30k that mainstream users would really start to consider these cars. Which doesn't change the fact that outside of benign climates, _current_ LEAFs are three year cars for most people, and certainly not five, which is why they're worth so little used.

After all, the typical bought LDV is kept by the original owner for 6 years now, while the average age of all U.S. LDVs is around 11 years. Is anyone confident that large numbers of Gen 1 LEAFs will still be viable transportation (outside of use as a NEV) for that long? A car that won't even last the average length of time a typical original owner keeps it (for the trips they bought it for), let alone into a reasonable used life, is inherently a vehicle with little used value. By comparison, my current 12+ year old ICE can still be used for every trip I bought it for, and will be able to be so used for the remainder of its life. Used LEAFs with degraded batteries are a tiny niche of what was already a tiny niche product. Gen 2 will retain usefulness as a commute car for many people for much longer, as long as they have a chemistry that improves calendar life - cycling life will improve because of the longer range and resulting shallower cycling on a regular basis.

 

[DaveEV]

MODERATORS NOTE:

Please continue discussion regarding backwards compatibility of the 30 kWh pack, warranties, etc, in the dedicated thread:

'16 30 kWh pack - backwards compatibility and warranty?

 

[DaveInAvl]

Yes, the limiting happens as in they only let you use roughly 22kwh of your 24kwh pack, but they still advertise it as a 24kwh pack.

This reminds me of when automakers used to advertise gross HP for their engines rather than net HP. IMO it'd take regulatory action to force EV makers to specify net (available for use) battery kwh rather than gross.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Yes, the limiting happens as in they only let you use roughly 22kwh of your 24kwh pack, but they still advertise it as a 24kwh pack.

This reminds me of when automakers used to advertise gross HP for their engines rather than net HP. IMO it'd take regulatory action to force EV makers to specify net (available for use) battery kwh rather than gross.

I agree. Who would choose to advertise net capacity when their competitors are all using gross? That said, I wish they would regulate that as net capacity is far more important to the consumer. Technically knowing both tells you something about how well they are babying their battery. By that measure, GM would look darn good...

 

[dhanson865]

Yes, the limiting happens as in they only let you use roughly 22kwh of your 24kwh pack, but they still advertise it as a 24kwh pack.

This reminds me of when automakers used to advertise gross HP for their engines rather than net HP. IMO it'd take regulatory action to force EV makers to specify net (available for use) battery kwh rather than gross.

I agree. Who would choose to advertise net capacity when their competitors are all using gross? That said, I wish they would regulate that as net capacity is far more important to the consumer. Technically knowing both tells you something about how well they are babying their battery. By that measure, GM would look darn good...

I'd rather they be required to specify net and gross.

In the PC world with SSDs we know the usable capacity vs gross and the difference is considered "over-provisioning". The higher the % of over-provisioning the better from a performance, reliability, degradation standpoint.

So if EV 1 has a 21kWh usable with 24kWh gross that would probably be better than EV 2 that has 21kWh usable but only 22kWh gross.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

30kWh pack would translate to roughly 105 mile range.
84 miles / 24 kWh = x / 30 kWh

Any thoughts when 2016 will be available?

On a 65 degree day without any climate control. In particularly bad winter conditions it will still be under 50.

I cannot buy another Leaf until they get the pack up to 36 kWh minimum, which would be 50% more range than the current models.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think you need a reality check, Dave...

From KBB: "The estimated average transaction price of a new car or truck sold in the U.S. in April, 2015 was $33,560."

Tesla is targeting a $35,000 EV like everyone will flock to it and I think they are CRAZY. last I checked, no one wants to pay that much for any kind of car...

nothing wrong with my reality.

 

[minispeed]

30kWh pack would translate to roughly 105 mile range.
84 miles / 24 kWh = x / 30 kWh

Any thoughts when 2016 will be available?

On a 65 degree day without any climate control. In particularly bad winter conditions it will still be under 50.

I cannot buy another Leaf until they get the pack up to 36 kWh minimum, which would be 50% more range than the current models.

I drive 45 miles on the highway mostly at 60 mph (50-55 sometimes when it was really cold) and never once did I not make it to work all winter. It got as low as -30C this year. I think the lowest I got in with would have been in the high teens for the % (now that's to the QC which is about 3-4 miles from my work) I never once hit VLBW on the way to work and only hit LBW a few times. A preheated cabin, 12v electric blanket and heat on low settings for almost all of the winter. The only time I regularly turned off heat was on my way home (preheating on 120v at work could take 7% off vs 2-3 on the home 240v) when I didn't want to risk having to stop and charge or when I didn't want to go slower. All the 30kWh cars will have a heat pump like mine too.

An extra 6 kWh would mean I could skip the 20 min daily winter QC below freezing and just do 10hrs at 120v and come start my leg home with about 20kWh in the battery or keep the QC and run a lot more heat all the time.

disclaimer, I have no idea how much my light 15 winter wheels helped as I haven't done a winter without them but my cousin rolling on my stock 16 rims with the same nokian tires as me was getting about the same 0.5-1 km/kWh less than me which was the same in the summer with him on stock 17s and me on stock 16s. Maybe you should try out some Nokian Hakka R2s next winter, 205 60 16 will roll better than 205 55 16.

 

[DeeAgeaux]

I think you need a reality check, Dave...

From KBB: "The estimated average transaction price of a new car or truck sold in the U.S. in April, 2015 was $33,560."

Tesla is targeting a $35,000 EV like everyone will flock to it and I think they are CRAZY. last I checked, no one wants to pay that much for any kind of car...

nothing wrong with my reality.

Except that is not real.

Globally, there are over 7M people that spend over US $35k on a new vehicle every year.

Model 3 ,Bolt, Top battery spec LEAF have massive addressable market.

 

[evnow]

Except that is not real.

Globally, there are over 7M people that spend over US $35k on a new vehicle every year.

Model 3 ,Bolt, Top battery spec LEAF have massive addressable market.

Hhmmm ... what is the global sales of compact cars over $35k ? I don't think that is 7M.