2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

[DaveinOlyWA]

In order for the "bad batch" hypothesis to be true, the 2017 and late 2016 packs would have to be much better. Do we have any evidence of that...?

We really don't have consistent data on anything. Its all over the map. Nothing is matching up. Any hypothesis fails at one point or another

the only one that might hold water is that there is significant degradation at full charge with temps in the 70's. That pretty much covers everyone

 

[SageBrush]

I'll say that an uncomfortably large fraction of 30 kWh packs are garbage, but due to self-selection in deciding to post here I cannot tell if it 1% or 30%+ of packs.

 

[arnis]

Nonsense.
The battery checks (at the owner expense, naturally) are part of the car warranty. Nissan does not warrant the human.

No it is not. Not in EU and AFAIK, those who skip checks can have battery replaced anyway.
It's stealership lie.
BTW, AFAIK, it costs me nothing. EU though.

 

[smnewport]

Need some advice. I am getting a great quote on a 2017 S. Very tempted to pull the trigger, but with all unfavorable reviews of the 30kw battery in this thread, I am very concerned about the longevity of it.

Not sure what the exact month the build date is, but the car is in NJ so not likely baked like the AZ Leafs.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Oils4AsphaultOnly]

Need some advice. I am getting a great quote on a 2017 S. Very tempted to pull the trigger, but with all unfavorable reviews of the 30kw battery in this thread, I am very concerned about the longevity of it.

Not sure what the exact month the build date is, but the car is in NJ so not likely baked like the AZ Leafs.

Thanks in advance.

Do you think you can get the VIN and post it? I think someone has a link that can help determine the details based off of the VIN.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Need some advice. I am getting a great quote on a 2017 S. Very tempted to pull the trigger, but with all unfavorable reviews of the 30kw battery in this thread, I am very concerned about the longevity of it.

Not sure what the exact month the build date is, but the car is in NJ so not likely baked like the AZ Leafs.

Thanks in advance.

New Jersey gets hot enough. What is build date? How long on the lot? These are the questions you need to know.

 

[joeriv]

IMHO you need to consider how you will use the Leaf. If the most you plan to use it is 50-60 miles/day, then getting to eight bars within eight years is no big deal - you get a new battery if it happens in 4 years, and it will probably be a better battery considering technological advances.

I sold my perfectly fine 2013 S for a great deal on a 2017 S with a major consideration being the eight year warranty - I fully expect to get a new battery within the warranty period and eight bars will do me fine considering how I use my Leaf.

 

[jbuntz]

Build date is on a sticker on the drivers door jam.

 

[smnewport]

I am waiting to get that info from the dealer now.

 

[smnewport]

This would be used primarily as a daily commuter, no more than 20 miles on average. The ICE would be used mostly as a winter/ long distance car.

 

[joeriv]

Looks like you and I are on the same page! For distance driving I have a Lexus ES350. Considering your needs seems like the 2017S fits the bill. I did not even consider a new Leaf until I found out how much I could get in subsidies - for me $20,500 off a low negotiated price.

 

[smnewport]

Sounds like you got an awesome deal. The car will be about $13 and change after all the incentives and tax credit.

 

[smnewport]

Build date was 6/17

 

[joeriv]

So to recap:

$13,000 for a Leaf that you need to go 20 miles/day on average with an eight year battery warranty. Depending on how you drive, eight bars could give you 70-80 miles so even if you got to 8 bars before 8 years, it's well within your needs and you get a new (maybe better) battery.

As disconcerting as it may be to see the battery possibly degrade to 8 bars in a relatively short time, seems to me your downside is limited. However, you have to be comfortable with this scenario.

 

[smnewport]

It’s really the consequence of the degradation that I need to contend with. Not sure if Nissan would even offer a replacement pack 10 years from now when the range is no longer viable, in which case the car would become an overly-priced paperwork that the only option I have left is to part it out.

 

[Oils4AsphaultOnly]

It’s really the consequence of the degradation that I need to contend with. Not sure if Nissan would even offer a replacement pack 10 years from now when the range is no longer viable, in which case the car would become an overly-priced paperwork that the only option I have left is to part it out.

Since it's a 2017, and your commute range is 20 miles, the scenario that you're afraid of will NOT happen.

Either you'll lose 4 bars (and thus only have ~50-70 miles of range per full charge) within 8 years, or you'll lose only 3 bars or less by year 8 (and not qualify for a warranty replacement). In the former, you'll get a replacement battery per warranty. In the latter, you'll be averaging 4% (or less) battery capacity loss per year. So by year 10, you should still have AT LEAST ~60% battery capacity remaining, which is ~50-70 miles of range (depending on your driving style) . Assuming degradation accelerates after year 8, let's say down to 40% capacity, that's still 35-45 miles of range. Now beyond year 10, we're kinda of learning as we go along as the 2011 leaf batteries continue to age.

Now if you're concerned about long-term depreciation. With your commute distance, a used leaf would work just as well.

Factoring all the money you'd save on gas, maintenance, and smog checks, the out-of-pocket cost of a replacement battery (or even a 2027 leaf) would be chump change.

 

[joeriv]

As to battery availability 10 years from now, federal law requires manufacturers to have parts for discontinued cars for 10 years - I don’t think parts availability will be an issue for the Leaf.

 

[SageBrush]

It’s really the consequence of the degradation that I need to contend with. Not sure if Nissan would even offer a replacement pack 10 years from now when the range is no longer viable, in which case the car would become an overly-priced paperwork that the only option I have left is to part it out.

I think Joeriv is pointing out another way to look at this: worse case, the car services your needs for about 100 months and cost 13k, for a monthly cost of $130. That is a low capitalization cost, and then you also enjoy EV driving and perhaps low fuel costs*. And lower insurance costs as well since the car starts out cheap and depreciates quickly.

This all makes fine sense when the LEAF is a second, local commuter car in the household. Like Joeriv, this was my situation and the LEAF is working out really well for us, crappy battery and all.

*A cheap EV + PV is one heck of a deal. I paid ~ $7000 net for a 3 year old LEAF with about 90% battery remaining. I figure that it will service our needs for at least 5 years, so 7000/60 = $116 a month. My liability only insurance is about $20 a month, and my home PV fueling is about half a penny per mile, so under $3 a month. All told, my TCO is ~ $140 a month to drive a pretty nice EV. My only hedge on this deal is to baby the car, meaning I don't cook the battery in heat at 100% charge.

 

[smnewport]

Thanks to everyone for all the useful info.

Will most likely lock in the deal tomorrow. Will keep you updated!

 

[Leafchacho]

Combing through this thread, from actual reports, it appears that the 30kwh battery loses bars at Leafspy SOH:

Bar 1 - SOH = 80% - reported
Bar 2 - SOH = 73% - reported
Bar 3 - SOH = 66% - estimated ( One user reported that he had 3 bars gone at 63% but didn't say when it dropped)
Bar 4 - SOH = 60% - reported

Probably +- 1% on any of those numbers.

I should be able to confirm the 2, 3 and 4 numbers over the next 10 months or so.