Zythryn said:
Tesla is building about 600/week and is ramping up to about 1000/week by the end of the year.
There are about 1000 cars "in the pipe" that are being delivered overseas.
The estimates, as I recall, are about half of production for the US and half for the rest of the world.
As for running out of buyers,the luxury market in just the US is 1,000,000/year. I don't expect them to run out anytime soon. The wait list is currently backed up to September.
It's rather naive to assume that Tesla's total available market (TAM) for luxury vehicles is the same TAM
as for Lexus, M/B. BMW, & Porsche. Those potential other luxury vehicle buyers basically all have the
same basic homogeneous needs & values when buying. Most couldn't care less about; climate change/global
warming, dependence on foreign oil, or fuel costs, which are key factors for many Tesla & BEV buyers.
Many luxury vehicle buyers don't even consider a Tesla nor desire a BEV. That's not to say, though,
that there isn't an overlap between Tesla's actual TAM and the luxury TAM. Just because a vehicle
is called a luxury vehicle doesn't necessarily mean it's in the exact same market as other luxury
vehicles and that it fulfills the typical buyers' needs of that market.
The same market analysis of the Leaf's TAM versus the economy vehicles, e.g. Altima, Accord, etc.,
TAM exists. The Leaf's TAM overlaps the other low end economy vehicles but it does not include
that overall TAM. One can just review the surveys posted on this website about what motivates a Leaf
purchase. Many of factors mentioned, as for Tesla buyers, aren't even considered by Altima nor
Accord buyers.
At the present Tesla sales run-rate (less than 2013), they have a big 'nut' in the next seven months.
Tesla may be in the long run just a niche 'player' once the early-adopter market saturates or when
the novelty ends. The 'jury-will-be-out' for a few more years, at minimum, as to whether the Tesla
is truly a "disrupter". If anyone can be considered a "disrupter", then maybe Nissan with the Leaf
should have the moniker given the total BEV units produced.