2014 Feb Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 1425, Volt 1210

[scottf200]

When the sales numbers are so small it exaggerates percentages. Doing same math on a larger selling vehicle shows how percentages look radially different.

Example using 2013 Feb numbers for the Cruze and Versa (just for large seller comparisons only not products). You can see the percentages are -2% vs -26% and +6% vs +118%. So dramatically different.

        Feb’13	Feb’14	%Chg	Up/Down
Volt	  1,626	 1,210	-26%	-416
LEAF	    653	 1,425	118%	 772
Cruze	17,947	17,531	 -2%	-416 (use above number for Volt)
Versa	13,100	13,872	  6%	 772 (use above number for LEAF)

 

[edatoakrun]

The real news in the Feb results is the ongoing collapse in hybrid and diesel sales in the USA.

The link below charts all BEV/phev/hybrid/diesel sales, as summarized:

Gas prices are up. There are more hybrid and plug-in vehicle models available to the public than ever. Nissan's doing great with its Leaf and Tesla continues to exceed sales expectations with its Model S. And yet advanced-powertrain and alt-fuel vehicle sales continue to crater compared to the numbers from a year ago. What's going on here?

Americans bought just under 40,400 green vehicles in February, down 23 percent from the almost 52,500 they purchased a year earlier. And, no, there's no leap year to blame here...

We might have to blame Prius fatigue, much to the chagrin of Toyota. The four variants of the world's most popular hybrid model combined to sell 12,861 units last month, down 28 percent from February 2013. Toyota's other hybrid models did even worse, with sales of the Camry, Avalon and Highlander Hybrids plunging 39 percent, 55 percent and 76 percent from a year earlier, respectively. Overall, Toyota's green-car sales dropped 29 percent from a year earlier to 19,027 units.

And General Motors wasn't immune either, despite the recent introduction of models such as the Chevrolet Spark EV, Chevrolet Cruze Diesel and Cadillac ELR extended-range plug-in. Sales of mild-hybrids such as Buick's LaCrosse and Regal and the Chevrolet Malibu eAssist continued to substantially lag last year's figures. The Chevrolet Volt extended-range plug-in moved 1,210 units, down 26 percent from a year earlier. In all, GM saw sales fall 35 percent from a year earlier to just 2,658 vehicles. Ford fared slightly better, as Fusion Energi Plug-in Hybrid and Lincoln MKZ Hybrid sales jumped from a year earlier. But that was more than offset by declines in sales of models such as the Fusion and C-Max Hybrids, bringing Ford's overall sales down nine percent from a year earlier to 6,776 units...

And despite gas prices being up about seven percent since the beginning of the year, according to AAA, Americans aren't gravitating en masse to clean diesel models the German automakers are selling. Volkswagen's green-car sales dropped 32 percent from a year earlier to 4,787 units, as low-volume sales of its new Jetta Hybrid was more than offset by falling diesel demand. And Audi's diesel sales dropped 65 percent from a year earlier to 1,048 units...

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/03/04/february-2014-green-car-sales/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[JeremyW]

I blame the weather (outside of CA) for a lot of this slow down. It seems cold enough for people to barely function!! :shock:

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

predicted this shift a long time ago. its subtle and should remain so for at least 2 years but I know someone who asked my advice; i recommended leasing the LEAF (his RT commute was 30 miles) he somehow talked himself into BUYING a Volt and now he regrets it. BIGTIME

but he was dealing with it pretty well until...

I leased my 2nd LEAF with zero down (actually they PAID me $35.75 to take it off their hands, check blog for details) and $245.75 a month payments

now he is vigorously investigating avenues to dump the Volt and get the LEAF. using the Volt for longer trips has simply not materialized. with 3 kids its simply too tight a squeeze so the mini van still does that job.

he is just one story. I am sure that there are many more.
On Friday I was working in Seattle and hopefully I headed off another disaster. the owner of the business we were auditing has an S85 and was considering a LEAF or Volt for his wife's 46 mile commute. hopefully I convinced him to go LEAF

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10203527514096386&set=a.1640356936709.2085226.1470388190&type=1&stream_ref=10" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

Incase anyone was wondering, I was traveling last week. I'll post updated charts when I get some breathing time - or may be next month.

 

[TomT]

I am not so convinced that there is any really big shift going on... I know of two people that went the other way and got a Volt to replace their Leafs, and they are both very happy with the change... Both serve a different purpose... And in warmer climates, the Leaf is simply not currently a viable product unless you are only going to lease, and for just two years...

predicted this shift a long time ago. its subtle and should remain so for at least 2 years but I know someone who asked my advice; i recommended leasing the LEAF (his RT commute was 30 miles) he somehow talked himself into BUYING a Volt and now he regrets it. BIGTIME

 

[evnow]

I am not so convinced that there is any really big shift going on...

I think the shift is from Volt to other plugins. There is no reason otherwise the leading plugin would have stagnant sales in an industry seeing explosive growth.

 

[CayenneSJLEAFy]

@ evnow--I agree.

At least in the SF Bay Area, I am seeing other plug-ins that are competing against the Volt. The Volt is smaller than the LEAF and seats only 4, but I ended up buying the Volt, because I wanted the plug-in that has the closest experience to a BEV, with the largest battery size at that price point. Aside from PIP, the other plug-ins didn't have a sufficient reliability record yet, and the Chevy has been on the road for 3 years so far. So I went with the Chevy. If I leased, I would easily surpass the mileage limitation.

The scary thing is that at the rate of battery degradation on our previous '11 LEAF, the max mileage I can get on our LEAF (prior to trading in) was 54 (and that is from 100% to VLBW). I've mentioned before that my favorite places to charge are now filling up quickly with brand-new EVs, so finding a charger is no longer guaranteed (even after checking Recargo, PlugShare, or ChargePoint apps). Workplace gets filled too quickly to charge at work (they generally get filled up by 6:30am). Gets old to check throughout the day for charger availability, rush out and move just as someone else dives in to take those coveted spots.

The other day, my most favorite haunt of all, Target Fremont (with 12 chargers) all went offline except for 2 chargers. The only cryptic note on all ChargePoints was "disabled by property owner." No other explanation was provided. Had I still owned the '11 LEAF I would be in pure panic, as I know the ChaDeMo at the local Fremont dealer (Premier) was offline again, and the other (Ohlone College) is several miles away but uphill. But with the Volt--no sweat, I'll just run on ICE for the rest of the ride home. I saw a few panicked LEAF drivers freaking, because that location was almost always guaranteed for charging (even if all occupied, the chances are good that someone will leave soon so you can charge up).

The other factor for buying versus leasing (at least in CA) is that the green HOV stickers are likely to run out by this year. The green stickers have been extended to 2019. Leasing would mean going with the white sticker on the next go-around, as green stickers would run out by then, and the only choices for the white sticker would be BEVs, Hydrogen, and Natural Gas. But if all the stars align, Model E is also available by then!

 

[scottf200]

I am not so convinced that there is any really big shift going on...

I think the shift is from Volt to other plugins. There is no reason otherwise the leading plugin would have stagnant sales in an industry seeing explosive growth.

Your "explosive growth" is a weee bit of a hyperbole. However, I agree that Ford Energi Plug-ins would certain take sales away from the Volt. The Energi's did have over 1,300 (779+552) in sales last month.

 

[GRA]

I am not so convinced that there is any really big shift going on...

I think the shift is from Volt to other plugins. There is no reason otherwise the leading plugin would have stagnant sales in an industry seeing explosive growth.

Your "explosive growth" is a weee bit of a hyperbole. However, I agree that Ford Energi Plug-ins would certain take sales away from the Volt. The Energi's did have over 1,300 (779+552) in sales last month.

Indeed. The The Volt has competition in its price range, the LEAF doesn't outside of California/Oregon and a few other CARB states, although the drop in price of the Focus EV and the coming 2014 MiEV may change that. Especially as I expect the deluge of degraded-battery LEAFs will be upon us this summer.

 

[lorenfb]

"But if all the stars align, Model E is also available by then!"

Dream on! They haven't even fully designed nor scheduled a Model X production date yet.

 

[evnow]

Your "explosive growth" is a weee bit of a hyperbole.

Not really. 82% growth even with stagnant models like Volt & Prius.

 

[TRONZ]

Well here in always fashionable ( :roll: ) South Orange County CA, most people just buy whatever they want. This usually means if it's not the latest and greatest anything then its on the "outs". While my area is certainly not typical for income, people are brutally honest about what they like and don't like in products. Folks around here look at hybrid anything as "old". Some can even spit out the word "hybrid" as if they accidentally bit into an excrement sandwich. They can also do math so 20% more $ for diesel that gives 20% better mileage gets a blank stare. But while suspicious of EV's, love em or hate em, everyone around here agrees they are the next "new" thing. EV's are "in".

 

[greenleaf]

http://insideevs.com/the-nissan-leaf-jumps-over-a-low-sales-bar-for-the-last-time-in-february-up-118/
"[Nissan] easily trumped the 653 sold in February 2013 by a fair margin with 1,425 sold this year – up 118.2%. "

http://insideevs.com/winter-blues-chevrolet-sells-1210-volts-in-february-off-26/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"After posting a fairly disappointing 918 Volt sales in January – the first time sales were under 4 digits in 2 years (603 in January of 2012), the extended range Chevy bounced back a little in February notching 1,210 deliveries. Year-over-year, this February’s result was up against some fairly stiff competition as 1,626 were sold this month a year ago, meaning sales were off 25.6%."

I contributed to two of the Volts.