2013 Mar Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2,236 ! ; Volt 1,478

[edatoakrun]

For example, if it costs $3,000 to replace a battery in a 10 year old Leaf, that Leaf will still be worth more money because people will know they can replace the battery at a reasonable cost and keep driving it for many years.

A 10 year old Leaf is still going to be a 10 year old car, with all the dents, dings, stains, worn upholstery, and cracked dashboard of any other car. Some things on it will stop working that aren't worth fixing. It will look sad sitting next to a new one. As long as it runs there will still be a buyer for it, but it won't be a person with a lot of money to spend, people with money will be the ones buying the new ones. Assuming the new ones have greater range and other new features, I'm betting a EVs will decline in desirability even more than gas cars. Time will tell.

It's important to consider the price of gas when making these projections. A ten year old LEAF needing a new battery might be highly desireable if gas is $6/gallon. We're finally starting to put a price on carbon, and ten years is a long time. I am of the opinion a used EV will look pretty good in ten years.

The " 10 year old car, with all the dents, dings, stains, worn upholstery, and cracked dashboard" in a multi-car household is often used to drive far fewer miles, and taken on far fewer long trips than the "new" car.

If you wanted a vehicle for a short commute, for a non-commuting household member to use for errands, or one for your kid to drive to school (and NOT take on road trips) would you want a 10 year old ICEV, with its huge fuel and maintenance costs per mile, or a 10 year old BEV that only retains ~70% of the "new" Battery range?

I think Nissan is correct that the majority of LEAFs will never have their batteries replaced, at least not in their first decade of use.

Even those LEAFs with a significant percentage of battery capacity loss, will still have close to 100% utility for those drivers who only want to make short trips between recharges. And used BEV buyers will probably be willing to pay for that utility, given the relatively tiny market supply of used BEVs, relative to ICEVs.

And so, I think it very likely BEV residual values will track much higher than comparably priced ICEVs, over the long haul.

For ~$15k to ~$30k (new net price) BEVs, anyway.

But for ~$100 k BEVs?

Far less certain, IMO

 

[smkettner]

The big difference I see is that a battery is easy to swap. Put in a new gasoline or diesel motor and very often it never runs the same due to the complexity of all systems. A 10yo EV in good shape and a new battery will have more value in comparison. EV on average may have lower milage than many long commuting ICE vehicles.
JMHO

 

[Valdemar]

Should be ~1900 for this month.

Autoblog article:
http://green.autoblog.com/2013/03/27/nissan-leaf-sales-new-record-month-march-1900-units/

During a side session at the New York Auto Show today, José Muñoz, the senior vice president for sales and marketing, US and Canada, for Nissan, revealed that the Nissan Leaf electric vehicle is having a tremendous sales month. The company doesn't yet know the specific number – there are a few selling days left, after all – but it appears that over 1,900 Leafs will be sold this month.

We're selling a lot here in Downtown LA. We sold ten just over the weekend. We're getting great inventory, too. We have 25 in stock with more on the way. This car is a great value that people are just now waking up to.

Hopefully the feds will not eliminate the tax credit, w/o it the car just doesn't make sense financially, at least not yet.

 

[adric22]

A 10 year old Leaf is still going to be a 10 year old car, with all the dents, dings, stains, worn upholstery, and cracked dashboard of any other car. Some things on it will stop working that aren't worth fixing. It will look sad sitting next to a new one. As long as it runs there will still be a buyer for it, but it won't be a person with a lot of money to spend, people with money will be the ones buying the new ones. Assuming the new ones have greater range and other new features, I'm betting a EVs will decline in desirability even more than gas cars. Time will tell.

That really greatly depends on who owned it and how it was taken care of. I've owned 10-year old cars before that were in great condition and I kept them that way. I have already had my Leaf taken to the body shop twice for paint repairs, and I keep it washed, waxed, and plastics armour-all'd, and garaged. I don't smoke. I also don't eat or drink in my car, nor to I attempt to carry objects that will damage the seats or carpet. So if I still have my Leaf 8 years from now it will be 10 years old and I assure you it will look almost as good as it did new.

But yes - I know people who do not take care of their cars. They are just a tool to them. They never wash them, or fix anything that breaks unless it is something important. They drink, smoke, eat, and carry large objects in the car. And within a year or two, they are just trashed.

 

[Reddy]

Well, lots of sites picking up on Nissan's 1900+ prediction for March, most notably Detroit & WSJ.
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130327/AUTO0104/303270426
http://blogs.wsj.com/drivers-seat/2013/03/27/carlos-ghosn-stands-by-the-leaf/
http://www.passfail.com/news/auto-n...-monthly-us-sales-record-in-march-8156519.htm
http://www.dailybulletin.com/auto/news/ci_22883029?source=rss

 

[JPVLeaf]

Another reference to March 2013 Leaf sales predictions for:

Nissan officials said the company expects March sales of the Leaf in the U.S. to be the best ever at close to 2,000 cars for the month. Nissan recently began building the Leaf in the U.S.

Anecdotally speaking ...
For the past two years, three co-workers that have been driving 2011 and 2012 LEAFs. In just the past month or so that the 2013 LEAFs have been available, three more have been added. And at least 3-4 more are actively looking. Almost all were motivated by the lower cost S trim.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

A 10 year old Leaf is still going to be a 10 year old car, with all the dents, dings, stains, worn upholstery, and cracked dashboard of any other car. Some things on it will stop working that aren't worth fixing. It will look sad sitting next to a new one. As long as it runs there will still be a buyer for it, but it won't be a person with a lot of money to spend, people with money will be the ones buying the new ones. Assuming the new ones have greater range and other new features, I'm betting a EVs will decline in desirability even more than gas cars. Time will tell.

That really greatly depends on who owned it and how it was taken care of. I've owned 10-year old cars before that were in great condition and I kept them that way. I have already had my Leaf taken to the body shop twice for paint repairs, and I keep it washed, waxed, and plastics armour-all'd, and garaged. I don't smoke. I also don't eat or drink in my car, nor to I attempt to carry objects that will damage the seats or carpet. So if I still have my Leaf 8 years from now it will be 10 years old and I assure you it will look almost as good as it did new.

But yes - I know people who do not take care of their cars. They are just a tool to them. They never wash them, or fix anything that breaks unless it is something important. They drink, smoke, eat, and carry large objects in the car. And within a year or two, they are just trashed.

that describes me to a "T" kids, dogs, etc. too much work to try to keep it too clean. my Son kicks the back of the front passenger seat with his muddy shoes, etc.

i find that $200 to the detailer when I am ready to sell is well worth the money

 

[edatoakrun]

Sales near 2,000 in March would be pretty good for the LEAF, considering supply restraints.

But I think US monthly LEAF sales could hit 3,000 very soon, and, as I posted back in January:

...I'm also guessing ... that the total USA 2013 MY LEAF sales will be ~48,000, ending in ~October, when the nearly-identical 2014 MY will hit the dealerships...

I think Nissan will make a relatively modest profit on the 2013 LEAF if it doesn't have to offer further incentives to bring US sales to over 5,000 a month, as I'm guessing they will at by the end of the 2013 model year.

GM, like all the compliance BEV sellers, will now have to cut prices of the Spark EV further in order to remain competitive, and will lose even more on each sale of these low-volume compliance cars.

And I expect GM will continue to lose money on each Volt it sells, indefinitely.

I'll add my 2013 MY guess for GM sales to the sales number guess I posted for the LEAF last week.

Volt: 34,000.

Spark EV: (MY 2014, sales by year end 2013) 3,100.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=261504" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[scottf200]

Very good news for *EVs in general.

I think the last 2-3 months of gas prices are helping as well.

 

[SanDust]

Very welcome news and shows that, as most thought, price is big deal. Get the price low enough and the buyers show up! Should also open the door for some better marketing since the value proposition has become much better. I was able to get a couple of people to look at the Leaf because of the low lease price. Neither has bought but the interest definitely went up. Maybe next month. (I'm suggesting it's a great car for kids in high school). I figured sales would be good but not this good.

I think there is zero chance the EV credits are going away. The bigger worry would be that you run out of credits before you can get the price down. Because of this I don't see any huge advantage pushing numbers this early in the game. The longer you wait the less the battery will cost, and that's important because you need to take $7500 out of the cost of the battery.

Overall sales of plug-ins has been pretty good. Way ahead of where the parallel hybrids were in year three.

 

[MrIanB]

I am stunned at the 1,900 number but very glad for Nissan's hard work paying off. Thought sales would be the same as February due to 2012 supply and switch to Smyrna 2013 models. They must be running 24/7 cranking those 2013 models out.

Awesome news,

Ian B

 

[smkettner]

This is the very first month where dealers are actually getting reasonably stocked with LEAFs to sell.
Of course the price helps also.
I would not be at all surprized if sales grow by at least 100/200 per month for the next two years.

 

[mkjayakumar]

3 of my friends all leased their Leafs this month. Prior to that I didn't know of anyone personally who bought a Leaf in 2012.

It is no coincidence that Leaf is having a record month.

 

[KJD]

It just goes to show that price really does matter. The 100+ improvements they made over the 2012 helped some too, I am sure.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i am not stunned. i expected a significant jump to at least 1500 and considering that dealerships wont be fully stocked until April, things are looking very good.

word of mouth is working. we see it here every day

 

[Valdemar]

Will be interesting to see if the increasing number of EVs on the road will drive the development of the public charging infrastructure, so far the growth rate has been less than satisfactory. There are places to charge, but almost never where I need them.

 

[adric22]

I know dealers in our area just got Leafs a week or so ago. And most of the dealers have a grand total of 1 on the lot. So I would definitely add that sales are impressive for March considering lack of vehicles on dealer lots. Which means April may have even more impressive numbers.

Somebody mentioned about the charging infrastructure. This has been on my mind a lot too. For example, in my area we have EvGo which caters almost exclusively to the Leaf. The reason I say this is because most of their business concentrates on DC quick charging stations, which are useless to most any other car except for the i-Miev which hasn't sold in numbers large enough to care.

There's another significant factor to take into account. Should the Leaf ever get to the point where it is selling 5,000 units a month or more, it will raise serious concern for people backing the "frankenplug" chargers.

 

[RegGuheert]

I would not be at all surprized if sales grow by at least 100/200 per month for the next two years.

I think there has been some pent-up demand for the 2013s, so I expect to see a couple of high months followed by some level of retrenching, then I wouldn't be too surprised to see some steady growth in sales beyond that point, as you predict.

 

[Zythryn]

I would not be at all surprized if sales grow by at least 100/200 per month for the next two years.

I think there has been some pent-up demand for the 2013s, so I expect to see a couple of high months followed by some level of retrenching, then I wouldn't be too surprised to see some steady growth in sales beyond that point, as you predict.

That 1900 number is fantastic!
If much of it was due to pent up demand for the 2013s I don't think that will continue to grow sales, but just give a bump over 2-3 months.
However, I think much of it is the new lower price for the base model. It will be interesting to see the breakdown by trim package.

 

[scottf200]

There's another significant factor to take into account. Should the Leaf ever get to the point where it is selling 5,000 units a month or more, it will raise serious concern for people backing the "frankenplug" chargers.

Only true of people doing something other than charging at home. And if they get a LEAF S that has the $1,300 DC charger option (or SV $1,630) or SL.