WetEV
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:43 pm
WetEV wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:45 am
GRA wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:31 pm Assuming BEV sales actually do double every 2.5 years, and they aren't doing that here yet. Sure, time needs to be considered. Sometime around 2050 will probably be far too late, which is why more and more states are panning to ban sales of them by 2030 or 2035.
GRA has car sales and cars on the road confused. Among other things.

No, I don't. Last year in the U.S. we were at 1.8% of sales, and for the first half of this year, 2.5%, both years with total car sales constrained by outside factors which drove up the median price of cars, causing sales at the lower end of he the market to drop off, thus skewing the results.
Let's walk though this slowly. Average age of a vehicle on the road is about 12 years.

https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age ... ted-states

So if every vehicle sold today was a BEV, half of the vehicles in 12 years would still be ICE.

Or look at it this way.

The US makes, sells and also scraps about 14 million cars, trucks and SUVs per year. There are 280 million cars, trucks and SUVs. To replace them all would take at least 20 years. Longer because some newer cars get scrapped due to accidents, floods, forest fires, etc.

So if ICEs are banned in 2030, the earliest that almost all vehicles would be BEVs would be after 2050.

Unless we start making a lot more cars. Or make a large reduction of cars on the road. Or something else drastic.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red (Sold)
2019 eTron Blue
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:53 am
GRA wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:43 pm
WetEV wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:45 am

GRA has car sales and cars on the road confused. Among other things.

No, I don't. Last year in the U.S. we were at 1.8% of sales, and for the first half of this year, 2.5%, both years with total car sales constrained by outside factors which drove up the median price of cars, causing sales at the lower end of he the market to drop off, thus skewing the results.
Let's walk though this slowly. Average age of a vehicle on the road is about 12 years.

https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age ... ted-states

So if every vehicle sold today was a BEV, half of the vehicles in 12 years would still be ICE.

Let me repeat your quote which the above was in reply to:
If BEV sales continue to double roughly ever 2.5 years, then sometime around 2030 BEV sales will be the majority of new cars. If the lifetime of cars on the road continues at 20+ years and that's true for both BEVs and ICEs, then sometime around 2050 BEVs will the majority of cars on the road.
Now, if BEVs make up the majority of sales by 2030 (with a total ban in say 2035) and the average age (not lifetime) of all vehicles is 12 years, then it won't take another 20 years for them to make up a majority of all cars.

WetEV wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:53 am Or look at it this way.

The US makes, sells and also scraps about 14 million cars, trucks and SUVs per year. There are 280 million cars, trucks and SUVs. To replace them all would take at least 20 years. Longer because some newer cars get scrapped due to accidents, floods, forest fires, etc.

So if ICEs are banned in 2030, the earliest that almost all vehicles would be BEVs would be after 2050.

Unless we start making a lot more cars. Or make a large reduction of cars on the road. Or something else drastic.

Actually, we'd been selling about 17 million or so for a few years pre-pandemic although that dropped the average, and the chip shortage and higher prices plus still high unemployment will likely keep them down for a while. But as the generations who grew up thinking that driving a car themselves was something you did passes and there's a shift to AVs and MaaS, I suspect the total fleet will begin to decrease. Just how quickly I'm not going to guess.
Last edited by GRA on Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
WetEV
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Your quotes are busted.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red (Sold)
2019 eTron Blue
User avatar
knightmb
Forum Supporter
Posts: 1555
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:41 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2021
Leaf Number: 306291
Location: Franklin, TN

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

I think banning *new sales* of ICE would make more sense. 9 Years from now, the battery tech will certainly be better, motor designs and power controllers designs will get better, maybe even to the point that a chip shortage would be moot with more integrated, less chip like designs.
The logistics of BEV are tough and unless something amazing happens with the car industry, making them as fast possible still doesn't mean that all ICE are removed from the road immediately. I can agree with that. The car industry is not the only one that causes global pollution though, other industries will have a take a inward look at how they can improve things too. Solar furnace is such an idea of using the sun to power metal smelting verse the old way of burning gas for example. I wouldn't depend on the car industry alone to save the world. :?
WetEV wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:53 am Let's walk though this slowly. Average age of a vehicle on the road is about 12 years.

https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age ... ted-states

So if every vehicle sold today was a BEV, half of the vehicles in 12 years would still be ICE.

Or look at it this way.

The US makes, sells and also scraps about 14 million cars, trucks and SUVs per year. There are 280 million cars, trucks and SUVs. To replace them all would take at least 20 years. Longer because some newer cars get scrapped due to accidents, floods, forest fires, etc.

So if ICEs are banned in 2030, the earliest that almost all vehicles would be BEVs would be after 2050.

Unless we start making a lot more cars. Or make a large reduction of cars on the road. Or something else drastic.
2020 Leaf SL Plus - (Manufacture Date March 2020)
2018 Leaf SL - (Manufacture Date February 2018)
2013 Leaf SV - (8 faithful years of service before trade in at 75,679 miles LeafSpy-Data)
Timekoin - The World's Most Energy Efficient Encrypted Digital Currency
User avatar
Marktm
Gold Member
Posts: 804
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:49 am
Delivery Date: 14 May 2021
Leaf Number: 022737
Location: Houston, TX

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

If promises are met, we will see many truly "adoptable" offerings for first time EV'ers. In Texas the Ford Lightning, Rivian pickup, Hummer EVs (and likely many others) will be a new group of buyers. The focus on the SUV EV will have an impact on many families with kids (soccer Moms :D ). Although the current Leaf seems to be a great crossover. Give this 3-5 years and projections might become much clearer.

The use of idle battery capacity for home backup (V2H) and some serious monetary payback with energy arbitrage ( V2G - in Texas at least) might start another class of "adopters" that want a home "nano-grid" that dual functions their EV with solar.

I do hope that new entries are fully vetted - that could be a disaster if they cannot meet the standards established by the Leaf and Teslas - both of which have taken a couple of generations to work out the kinks.

Exciting times!
2012 Leaf SL
2021 Leaf SV Plus
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:42 am Your quotes are busted.

Fixed.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

knightmb wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:25 pm I think banning *new sales* of ICE would make more sense.

If the above was in reply to me rather than WetEV I should have been clearer. I meant a ban on new ICE sales* as you said, which California and several other states are planning for 2035 (WA state says they intend 2030, but we'll see). Sorry for the confusion. From the context of his post I believe WetEV was also referring to a new sales ban in 2030, not an outright one, and that was what I was replying to.


* Note, at least CA's draft plan allows for PHEVs, albeit crippled like the i3 REx so that the AER has to be used first. AFAIK the final rules have yet to be issued.

knightmb wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:25 pm 9 Years from now, the battery tech will certainly be better, motor designs and power controllers designs will get better, maybe even to the point that a chip shortage would be moot with more integrated, less chip like designs.

The logistics of BEV are tough and unless something amazing happens with the car industry, making them as fast possible still doesn't mean that all ICE are removed from the road immediately. I can agree with that. The car industry is not the only one that causes global pollution though, other industries will have a take a inward look at how they can improve things too. Solar furnace is such an idea of using the sun to power metal smelting verse the old way of burning gas for example. I wouldn't depend on the car industry alone to save the world. :?
WetEV wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:53 am Let's walk though this slowly. Average age of a vehicle on the road is about 12 years.

https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age ... ted-states

So if every vehicle sold today was a BEV, half of the vehicles in 12 years would still be ICE.

Or look at it this way.

The US makes, sells and also scraps about 14 million cars, trucks and SUVs per year. There are 280 million cars, trucks and SUVs. To replace them all would take at least 20 years. Longer because some newer cars get scrapped due to accidents, floods, forest fires, etc.

So if ICEs are banned in 2030, the earliest that almost all vehicles would be BEVs would be after 2050.

Unless we start making a lot more cars. Or make a large reduction of cars on the road. Or something else drastic.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
WetEV
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 4:57 pm
If BEV sales continue to double roughly ever 2.5 years, then sometime around 2030 BEV sales will be the majority of new cars. If the lifetime of cars on the road continues at 20+ years and that's true for both BEVs and ICEs, then sometime around 2050 BEVs will the majority of cars on the road.
Now, if BEVs make up the majority of sales by 2030 (with a total ban in say 2035) and the average age (not lifetime) of all vehicles is 12 years, then it won't take another 20 years for them to make up a majority of all cars.
Majority is 50% + 1.

Assume that BEV sales hit 50% + 1 and hang.

Average age on the road is one point on a distribution, and doesn't define the rest of the points. Consider that a few cars have much longer lifetimes, I've seen multiple Model T's on the road.

Assume that BEVs and ICEs have the same exact life distribution, but that thousands of ICEs are 'classics', like the Model T, and will be on the road for hundreds of years. And BEVs are never considered classics.


The answer never. Of course, this is an extreme example, and doesn't include the total ban in 2035. But even then, realistic life distributions could prevent BEVs from being the majority of cars on to road until well after 2050. Consider Cuban cars.

Average lifetime would be about twice average age, but of course not exactly.

And average lifetime of a BEV produced in 2030 compared with an ICE produced in 2030 is speculative at best.

I used non-precise language for a reason. The answer isn't known to any exactness.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red (Sold)
2019 eTron Blue
WetEV
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:36 pm From the context of his post I believe WetEV was also referring to a new sales ban in 2030, not an outright one, and that was what I was replying to.
If I implied that, sorry.

ICE sales ban isn't a good idea. Better to let ICE die than murder it.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red (Sold)
2019 eTron Blue
User avatar
Stanton
Posts: 2630
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:56 am
Delivery Date: 01 Sep 2011
Leaf Number: 7458
Location: Plano, TX
Contact: Website Twitter

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

I get asked this very question almost every time I give an EV talk (like last week).
There is obviously a lot of demand/desire out there for EVs, but people are still concerned about range...until they realize there are a lot of 200 mile range EVs out there (that seems to be the magic number...and 300 miles is just a bonus). I think the only wild card here is there does seem to be a trend toward ride-sharing/public transit (especially where folks are moving from the suburbs back to the city) that will most likely lower the long-term private vehicle count.
2011 Blue Ocean SV w/OVMS
12v LiFePO4 battery
FIAMM 74100 horns/Wet Okole seat covers/Tor's heater mod/Dala's CAN-bridge
Lizard Pack (Rev E) installed @51 months/41k miles
40 kWh Pack (Gen2) installed @115 months/84k miles

Return to “Environmental Issues”