Let's walk though this slowly. Average age of a vehicle on the road is about 12 years.GRA wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:43 pmWetEV wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:45 amGRA has car sales and cars on the road confused. Among other things.
No, I don't. Last year in the U.S. we were at 1.8% of sales, and for the first half of this year, 2.5%, both years with total car sales constrained by outside factors which drove up the median price of cars, causing sales at the lower end of he the market to drop off, thus skewing the results.
https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age ... ted-states
So if every vehicle sold today was a BEV, half of the vehicles in 12 years would still be ICE.
Or look at it this way.
The US makes, sells and also scraps about 14 million cars, trucks and SUVs per year. There are 280 million cars, trucks and SUVs. To replace them all would take at least 20 years. Longer because some newer cars get scrapped due to accidents, floods, forest fires, etc.
So if ICEs are banned in 2030, the earliest that almost all vehicles would be BEVs would be after 2050.
Unless we start making a lot more cars. Or make a large reduction of cars on the road. Or something else drastic.