GRA
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:29 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:27 am

And the additional reason that PHFCEVs don't really exist, in any commercial sense of the word.

Consider PHEVs might exist long term, with relatively expensive synthetic liquid fuels produced by solar, or with more expensive biofuels.

Uh huh, or PHFCEVs. Commercial PHFCEVs already exist. IIRR the first were the French Renault Kangoo Z.E. mail trucks. We're seeing buses and other trucks starting to enter service now, where the FC acts as a range extender. For general LDV use you'd want a bit more power from the stack to provide highway cruising speed, with the battery for local use and on trips handling surface streets and providing extra power for passing and climbing.
...in any commercial sense of the word.

Which is now changing. Whether or not PHFCEVs or FCHEVs FTM will ultimately make it in the private consumer market remains to be seen, but commercial use appears guaranteed.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:46 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am A more efficient use of resources, that's what. FCEVs don't get very good reviews, you should know. Hydrogen stations being down often make FCEVs being called driveway ornaments.

Depends on the FCEV, now doesn't it? The Mirai 2 got good reviews, as did the Nexo IIRR. the Clarity and Mirai 1, eh. What's needed is a compact AWD FC CUV. Station reliability (or often in California, station supply reliability) is still a problem, but that can and is being fixed.
Hydrogen stations are complex, expensive, unreliable and scarce. How is that like gas stations, again?

As for the cars, the owners seem to be divided between loving them and counting the days until the lease is over and they can get rid of the damn thing. Many owners seem in both camps, often at the same time.

Used FCEVs are dirt cheap.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:38 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:02 pm
WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:19 am

The politics can be nothing but a distraction from the economics. As the cost (and eventually the price) is falling, subsidies have a time limit.

Politics determines where government and often private money is spent and affects the economics, whether we're talking about batteries, charging stations, fuel cells, H2 stations and production facilities, or syn-biofuels likewise.
Economics often has the last word. See, for example, the UK coal mining business. Politics kept the government subsidizing mines long after the economics of mining for coal in the UK made little sense.

Uh huh, and all of the current AFV techs still require subsidies. My view is that we should remove the direct to consumer ones, and see which win out based on economics.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:38 pm
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:46 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am A more efficient use of resources, that's what. FCEVs don't get very good reviews, you should know. Hydrogen stations being down often make FCEVs being called driveway ornaments.

Depends on the FCEV, now doesn't it? The Mirai 2 got good reviews, as did the Nexo IIRR. the Clarity and Mirai 1, eh. What's needed is a compact AWD FC CUV. Station reliability (or often in California, station supply reliability) is still a problem, but that can and is being fixed.
Hydrogen stations are complex, expensive, unreliable and scarce. How is that like gas stations, again?

It's not, now. OTOH, it's exactly like public charging stations. On my Bolt trip last year I went a combined 3 for 11 in successful charges: 1 for 8 at EA stations (0 for 4 using my phone, 1 for 4 using the credit card I'd pre-registered with them exactly for this possibility) and 2 for 3 at Chargepoint stations using their membership card (Got it around 2013, but had never used it until last year). The failure at one EA station imposed an 8.5 hour delay on my trip, as I had to sit at an L2 overnight in the next town south.

Compare that to my 100% success rate getting gas over 40+ years paying cash at gas stations. Oh, and except for the free L2 I paid a higher price per mile than I would buying gas for my not all that fuel-efficient (27 mpg EPA HWY, 28-30 typical real-world) ICE. Compared to a ca. 50 mpg. HEV I paid a much higher price per mile. Even now, when we have the highest gas prices in the country (my closest station, neither the most or least expensive in town, is $4.70/gallon), a 50 mpg HEV would cost less to fuel.

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:38 pm As for the cars, the owners seem to be divided between loving them and counting the days until the lease is over and they can get rid of the damn thing. Many owners seem in both camps, often at the same time.

Used FCEVs are dirt cheap.

You can see the same split among BEV owners. I've occasionally talked to FCEV owners at the H2 station I sometimes pass by. Being at the bleeding edge of any new tech has costs, and you need to be willing to accept those or you're going to be very unhappy.

I see at least one Gen 1 Mirai on pretty much a daily basis; I've ID'd a grand total of two each Nexos and Mirai 2s, and I still occasionally see a Clarity FCEV, a car whose trunk space was laughable owing to 2/3rd or more of it being occupied by the H2 tank they just slung in there. Once the Clarity PHEV was available it was game over for both the FCEV and BEV versions.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:07 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:38 pm
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:46 pm Depends on the FCEV, now doesn't it? The Mirai 2 got good reviews, as did the Nexo IIRR. the Clarity and Mirai 1, eh. What's needed is a compact AWD FC CUV. Station reliability (or often in California, station supply reliability) is still a problem, but that can and is being fixed.
Hydrogen stations are complex, expensive, unreliable and scarce. How is that like gas stations, again?
It's not, now. OTOH, it's exactly like public charging stations. On my Bolt trip last year I went a combined 3 for 11 in successful charges: 1 for 8 at EA stations (0 for 4 using my phone, 1 for 4 using the credit card I'd pre-registered with them exactly for this possibility) and 2 for 3 at Chargepoint stations using their membership card (Got it around 2013, but had never used it until last year). The failure at one EA station imposed an 8.5 hour delay on my trip, as I had to sit at an L2 overnight in the next town south.
Nice subject change. You got great propaganda skills.

I've had far more public charges, and fewer failures. So why was your trip so bad? Did you plan it to be bad?? Reliability varies, of course, and EVgo has been very good for me (no failures, zero failures, 0 failures) and 136 charges. A few I didn't have on my EVgo account, so actual total would be higher. A few times I had to wait. 6 times had to try twice to start the charger, 0kWh session followed by a successful session. Once had to try three times before getting a successful session.

AeroVironment was also very good. Did have to call the phone number a few times as the fob failed to work. Way less than half of the times.

Blink less so. Several failures, only a few dozen charges.

Chargepoint has been very good, but mostly L2 stations.

EA wouldn't be good if they didn't have so many chargers at each location. I've tried two chargers several times before getting one that worked. But only had to move a few feet to try again. When you have 19 plugs/10 chargers to try...


I know, L1 charging doesn't work at all. Didn't work for you with a Comutacar back in 1981(?), so is doomed for ever and ever, amen.

Funny how your experience and other people's experiences can be so different. And how you talk up your electric car failures.
WetEV
#49
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WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:07 pm Oh, and except for the free L2 I paid a higher price per mile than I would buying gas for my not all that fuel-efficient (27 mpg EPA HWY, 28-30 typical real-world) ICE. Compared to a ca. 50 mpg. HEV I paid a much higher price per mile. Even now, when we have the highest gas prices in the country (my closest station, neither the most or least expensive in town, is $4.70/gallon), a 50 mpg HEV would cost less to fuel.
Notice that less than 10% of charging is public, and most home charging is far cheaper. The total public plus home plus work charging bill is usually far less than gasoline.

Not to mention the air pollution. Not to mention the greenhouse gases. These are externality costs which fair accounting would include.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:07 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:38 pm As for the cars, the owners seem to be divided between loving them and counting the days until the lease is over and they can get rid of the damn thing. Many owners seem in both camps, often at the same time.

Used FCEVs are dirt cheap.

You can see the same split among BEV owners. I've occasionally talked to FCEV owners at the H2 station I sometimes pass by. Being at the bleeding edge of any new tech has costs, and you need to be willing to accept those or you're going to be very unhappy.
Unlike a FCEV, an electric car can be sold as used at a reasonable price. With the current market, you can even make a profit on one. So you don't need to wait for the end of the lease.

Notice again how GRA tries to cast shade on electric cars at every turn. A skilled propagandist.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:36 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:29 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm


Uh huh, or PHFCEVs. Commercial PHFCEVs already exist. IIRR the first were the French Renault Kangoo Z.E. mail trucks. We're seeing buses and other trucks starting to enter service now, where the FC acts as a range extender. For general LDV use you'd want a bit more power from the stack to provide highway cruising speed, with the battery for local use and on trips handling surface streets and providing extra power for passing and climbing.
...in any commercial sense of the word.

Which is now changing. Whether or not PHFCEVs or FCHEVs FTM will ultimately make it in the private consumer market remains to be seen, but commercial use appears guaranteed.
Your opinion.

Consider that inductive charging while under way might allow for long distance commercial travel with no extra charging time, and roughly a quarter of the energy cost of hydrogen. This is as speculative as green hydrogen production plans, of course.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:07 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:38 pm As for the cars, the owners seem to be divided between loving them and counting the days until the lease is over and they can get rid of the damn thing. Many owners seem in both camps, often at the same time.

Used FCEVs are dirt cheap.
You can see the same split among BEV owners.

To a much lesser extent, of course. BEVs are no longer bleeding edge most places, and haven't been for a while. Of course, you will not notice.


And unlike FCEVs, used prices are favorable.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:45 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:38 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:02 pm


Politics determines where government and often private money is spent and affects the economics, whether we're talking about batteries, charging stations, fuel cells, H2 stations and production facilities, or syn-biofuels likewise.
Economics often has the last word. See, for example, the UK coal mining business. Politics kept the government subsidizing mines long after the economics of mining for coal in the UK made little sense.

Uh huh, and all of the current AFV techs still require subsidies. My view is that we should remove the direct to consumer ones, and see which win out based on economics.
EVs sell in some parts of the world with no subsidies. There is no market for hydrogen cars without substantial subsidies. Like $15,000 in free fuel.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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