GRA
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:18 am
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm
WetEV wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 6:29 pm

So then you agree that FCEVs are dead?

Of course not, for all the reasons I've stated numerous times. For passenger FCEVs the jury's still out; for heavy transport FCEVs (and related H2 fuels) are a go, as perusal of the numerous articles I've posted excerpts from in the "H2 & FCEV" and "AFV truck and commercial vehicle" topics clearly shows.
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:18 am Then you don't have a problem ending subsidies for passenger FCEVs. Which sell below MSRP in the tightest car market in memory.

Posting numerous press releases only proves that hype exists.

Of course I don't have a problem with ending subsidies for them. I've been advocating that, along with the end of subsidies for BEVs and PHEVs, for years. Failing that, I've advocated for subsidies with low max. price and income caps. The current house version of "BBB" allows max. price of $80k and single incomes up to $250k to qualify for subsidies (double that for married), which I consider not just outrageous, but obscene.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:27 am
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm
WetEV wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 6:29 pm

More convenient, cleaner, and soon to be cheaper BEVs will make PHEVs just as obsolete as ICEs.

Fossil-fueled ICE PHEVs, sure, if for no other reason than they'll eventually be banned. In the meantime they can eliminate 50% or so of emissions, in the areas where pollution is worst, and do it a price the average new car buyer can afford. The jury's still out on passenger PHFCEVs, for much the same reasons as FCEVs.
And the additional reason that PHFCEVs don't really exist, in any commercial sense of the word.

Consider PHEVs might exist long term, with relatively expensive synthetic liquid fuels produced by solar, or with more expensive biofuels.

Uh huh, or PHFCEVs. Commercial PHFCEVs already exist. IIRR the first were the French Renault Kangoo Z.E. mail trucks. We're seeing buses and other trucks starting to enter service now, where the FC acts as a range extender. For general LDV use you'd want a bit more power from the stack to provide highway cruising speed, with the battery for local use and on trips handling surface streets and providing extra power for passing and climbing.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:56 am
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm
WetEV wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 6:29 pm

Point no point. Send/receive any emails from GEnie over the Internet? Was NSFnet by then, still government paid to move the data. Overlap between GEnie email gateway and NSFnet was only 2 years, so perhaps you never had government funded packet transport.

My first email was about 1982. The Internet was very government then.

In well less than a decade, I expect BEV subsidies mostly to go away. So like Internet late comers, BEV late comers will not get the subsidy discussion. Because they didn't get one.

Good, then we agree that BEVs still aren't ready to compete on their own without subsidies, for at least 3-5 years and maybe longer.
Nice you putting words in my mouth. BEV subsidies still have an impact, the optimum course is likely still subsiding BEVs for a few years. Phaseout of BEV subsidies would delay replacement by perhaps a year or two.

Phaseout of NSFnet was necessary, at some point. When to phase it out was debatable.

Many BEVs sell today without any subsidies. So BEVs are competing now without subsidies

Only at the high end, and we need to move the price downwards towards mainstream affordability, which is why I want much lower price and income caps for subsidies, if we can't eliminate them altogether.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:19 am
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm
WetEV wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 6:29 pm

Follow the trend lines.

Price is going down, range is going up. Yes, charging needs to be built, but there is little point spending money on Hydrogen fueling. Hydrogen is mostly dead.
You're once again Ignoring what's actually going on.
The politics can be nothing but a distraction from the economics. As the cost (and eventually the price) is falling, subsidies have a time limit.

Politics determines where government and often private money is spent and affects the economics, whether we're talking about batteries, charging stations, fuel cells, H2 stations and production facilities, or syn-biofuels likewise.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pm
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:11 am Hydrogen has sold a few thousand cars with massive subsidies. If the same subsidies had been allocated to charging, far more DCQC stations would be available.

Sure, and if all the money allocated to DCFCs had been allocated elsewhere, one of the other techs would have profited. So what?
A more efficient use of resources, that's what. FCEVs don't get very good reviews, you should know. Hydrogen stations being down often make FCEVs being called driveway ornaments.

GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pm FCEVs are only starting to slide down the economy of scale curve that BEVs did several years ago. Toyota's increase of stack production capacity by 10x, from 3 to 30k annually, allowed them to drop the price of the Mirai Gen 2 by $9k despite its being a much nicer car than Gen 1. Another order of magnitude increase will allow further reduction. Hyundai's in the process of boosting their stack capacity to 100k annually.
Ah yes, getting better. So are BEVs. Cells in prototype production show twice the energy density of today's cells, at half or less cost, wider operational temperature range and more. FCEVs will have to run hard just to stay behind.


GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pm
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:11 am Spreading bets on technologies works when you don't know what will win. We know that hydrogen loses for at least decades into the future. So why bet on hydrogen?

You think you know that.
The most optimistic plans for green hydrogen show that hydrogen loses for personal transportation for at least decades into the future.. Almost all hydrogen today is produced from natural gas. Sure, today is some "green hydrogen" from landfill natural gas, or similar, and some "green hydrogen" from electrolysis at high cost.

GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pm Countries and companies developing BEVs, PH(FC)EVs, FCHEVs, and net-zero carbon syn-biofuels for ICEs have yet to reach that conclusion, which is why they continue to spread their bets and invest in all of the above techs.
Actually, the hydrogen bandwagon has seen a few drop-offs.


GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pmBEVs have one niche we know they're excellently suited for now: routine local use inside their range, in moderate conditions where they return to the same guaranteed charging station every day. They are less suited for other uses that fossil-fueled ICEs currently provide, where flexibility, range, payload and extreme climates are issues, which is why the other techs are being developed. Maybe someday BEVs can do all the ICE jobs as well as ICEs can (with no resource constraints), but they obviously can't now, and we can't afford to wait for that uncertain future day when they might; we've got to de-carbonize all transport soonest.
Ah yes, the plea for a silver bullet.

More than half of driving matches the BEV niche right now. BEVs will have half the market before hydrogen gets started, if it ever does.

Image

Note that the Mars rovers (extreme climate!) are BEVs, not FCEVs.

Extreme range trucking, aircraft and similar expensive and demanding niches are niches that hydrogen might fill. Let's limit this topic's discussion to personal transport.
WetEV
#49
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WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:58 pm
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:18 am Then you don't have a problem ending subsidies for passenger FCEVs. Which sell below MSRP in the tightest car market in memory.

Posting numerous press releases only proves that hype exists.

Of course I don't have a problem with ending subsidies for them. I've been advocating that, along with the end of subsidies for BEVs and PHEVs, for years. Failing that, I've advocated for subsidies with low max. price and income caps. The current house version of "BBB" allows max. price of $80k and single incomes up to $250k to qualify for subsidies (double that for married), which I consider not just outrageous, but obscene.
Quoting was all messed up. Hope I got it correct.

Again, trying to kill BEVs by pushing them into the wrong end of the market first. Sad, isn't it?

BEVs have advantages that are important at the high end of the market. As battery price declines, that's the end of the market that will work first, subsidies or no subsidies.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:59 pm
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:27 am
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm


Fossil-fueled ICE PHEVs, sure, if for no other reason than they'll eventually be banned. In the meantime they can eliminate 50% or so of emissions, in the areas where pollution is worst, and do it a price the average new car buyer can afford. The jury's still out on passenger PHFCEVs, for much the same reasons as FCEVs.
And the additional reason that PHFCEVs don't really exist, in any commercial sense of the word.

Consider PHEVs might exist long term, with relatively expensive synthetic liquid fuels produced by solar, or with more expensive biofuels.

Uh huh, or PHFCEVs. Commercial PHFCEVs already exist. IIRR the first were the French Renault Kangoo Z.E. mail trucks. We're seeing buses and other trucks starting to enter service now, where the FC acts as a range extender. For general LDV use you'd want a bit more power from the stack to provide highway cruising speed, with the battery for local use and on trips handling surface streets and providing extra power for passing and climbing.
...in any commercial sense of the word.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:01 pm
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:56 am
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm


Good, then we agree that BEVs still aren't ready to compete on their own without subsidies, for at least 3-5 years and maybe longer.
Nice you putting words in my mouth. BEV subsidies still have an impact, the optimum course is likely still subsiding BEVs for a few years. Phaseout of BEV subsidies would delay replacement by perhaps a year or two.

Phaseout of NSFnet was necessary, at some point. When to phase it out was debatable.

Many BEVs sell today without any subsidies. So BEVs are competing now without subsidies

Only at the high end, and we need to move the price downwards towards mainstream affordability, which is why I want much lower price and income caps for subsidies, if we can't eliminate them altogether.
At the high end first, as BEVs have advantages at the high end. Less subsidies needed to get the process started, and/or moving faster.

BEV subsidies are no longer necessary, but are still helpful. As the cost and eventually the price falls, eventually subsidies will no longer be helpful. That day is coming soon for BEVs, but is decades in the future for hydrogen. If ever.
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:02 pm
WetEV wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:19 am
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:05 pm

You're once again Ignoring what's actually going on.
The politics can be nothing but a distraction from the economics. As the cost (and eventually the price) is falling, subsidies have a time limit.

Politics determines where government and often private money is spent and affects the economics, whether we're talking about batteries, charging stations, fuel cells, H2 stations and production facilities, or syn-biofuels likewise.
Economics often has the last word. See, for example, the UK coal mining business. Politics kept the government subsidizing mines long after the economics of mining for coal in the UK made little sense.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pm
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:11 am Hydrogen has sold a few thousand cars with massive subsidies. If the same subsidies had been allocated to charging, far more DCQC stations would be available.

Sure, and if all the money allocated to DCFCs had been allocated elsewhere, one of the other techs would have profited. So what?
A more efficient use of resources, that's what. FCEVs don't get very good reviews, you should know. Hydrogen stations being down often make FCEVs being called driveway ornaments.

Depends on the FCEV, now doesn't it? The Mirai 2 got good reviews, as did the Nexo IIRR. the Clarity and Mirai 1, eh. What's needed is a compact AWD FC CUV. Station reliability (or often in California, station supply reliability) is still a problem, but that can and is being fixed.


WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pm FCEVs are only starting to slide down the economy of scale curve that BEVs did several years ago. Toyota's increase of stack production capacity by 10x, from 3 to 30k annually, allowed them to drop the price of the Mirai Gen 2 by $9k despite its being a much nicer car than Gen 1. Another order of magnitude increase will allow further reduction. Hyundai's in the process of boosting their stack capacity to 100k annually.
Ah yes, getting better. So are BEVs. Cells in prototype production show twice the energy density of today's cells, at half or less cost, wider operational temperature range and more. FCEVs will have to run hard just to stay behind.

Behind? What's the cheapest 400 mile BEV priced at, because the Mirai 2's $50, 525 MSRP + dest. I see the cheapest Model S is now $94,990 MSRP. The 380 mile Nexo's $60,120 MSRP + dest., and it's last gen tech.

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pm
WetEV wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:11 am Spreading bets on technologies works when you don't know what will win. We know that hydrogen loses for at least decades into the future. So why bet on hydrogen?

You think you know that.
The most optimistic plans for green hydrogen show that hydrogen loses for personal transportation for at least decades into the future.. Almost all hydrogen today is produced from natural gas. Sure, today is some "green hydrogen" from landfill natural gas, or similar, and some "green hydrogen" from electrolysis at high cost.

Green H2 is predicted to be cost-competitive with gasoline by 2030, by DoE IIRR. Which is why increasing green H2 production and reducing cost is underway, as noted in articles I've posted in the H2 and FCEV topic.

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pm Countries and companies developing BEVs, PH(FC)EVs, FCHEVs, and net-zero carbon syn-biofuels for ICEs have yet to reach that conclusion, which is why they continue to spread their bets and invest in all of the above techs.
Actually, the hydrogen bandwagon has seen a few drop-offs.

Uh huh, and more additions. Like batteries at a similar stage of development.

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am
GRA wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:55 pmBEVs have one niche we know they're excellently suited for now: routine local use inside their range, in moderate conditions where they return to the same guaranteed charging station every day. They are less suited for other uses that fossil-fueled ICEs currently provide, where flexibility, range, payload and extreme climates are issues, which is why the other techs are being developed. Maybe someday BEVs can do all the ICE jobs as well as ICEs can (with no resource constraints), but they obviously can't now, and we can't afford to wait for that uncertain future day when they might; we've got to de-carbonize all transport soonest.
Ah yes, the plea for a silver bullet.

More than half of driving matches the BEV niche right now. BEVs will have half the market before hydrogen gets started, if it ever does.
Image[/quote]


Yet BEVs don't make up half the market, because customers demand that cars can also do the other half. Until that changes we need ZEV options that can do all the tasks customers require.

WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am Note that the Mars rovers (extreme climate!) are BEVs, not FCEVs.

Gee, using special, non-commercial batteries charged by solar panels and moving at a speed measured in a few inches per second. Yeah, that really matches customer car requirements here on earth. :roll:


WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:55 am Extreme range trucking, aircraft and similar expensive and demanding niches are niches that hydrogen might fill. Let's limit this topic's discussion to personal transport.

As long as customers demand the ability to drive long-distances, no matter how rarely, and do so with flexibility and convenience that fast refueling provides, H2 in some form or other is one ZEV way to do that. BEVs can't yet, and may never.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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