johnlocke wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:10 pm
GRA wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 2:42 pm
I'm not aware that he's asking for a permanent federal ban on FSD, he wants a ban on FSD as long as its nothing of the sort, with which I'm in total agreement. That's not saying personal interest may not be a factor.
Stupid driver reactions? That's exactly the problem that has to be solved - autonomous vehicles need to be better than average drivers, not below or on par with the stupid ones.
I agree with you on the likely timeline, at least for ADS that can safely replace humans in some limited situations. We do have some dem/val around the country of such systems now, albeit not for cars owned by the general public (who should be the very last to get them, once the tech has been proved). For example, Cruise has had permission to operate in San Francisco with no driver on-board for a while now (and one of their cars got pulled over by a cop recently - see https://electrek.co/2022/04/10/gm-cruis ... -responds/
). Waymo has also been operating in Phoenix and I think a couple of other cities.
When I said "stupid driver reactions" I meant the on screen reactions of the drivers in the clips. For someone who is supposed to be monitoring the car's path, they seemed awfully surprised. In terms of reliability, the baseline goal ought to be safer operation than 90% of the drivers on the road. Not that you never have an accident but that you have far fewer than the average driver. 30% of all accidents are rear end collisions. Active cruise control and automatic braking could reduce that to nearly zero. Driver inattention is another large factor. 90% of all accidents are caused by human error. Removing the driver from the equation seems like a good idea.
I agree that driver inattention is a huge problem - after all, I avoid being injured or killed about every ten days on my bike now instead of once a month or so, which was the case when I began riding in heavy street traffic more than a half century ago (sheesh, it's really been that long?). The increase is almost entirely due to the proliferation of cell and even more so smart phones, along with there now being an entire generation of drivers who've grown up believing that interacting with said phones takes priority over every other activity, including watching the road and controlling the car. AFAIC, autonomous vehicles that are safer than most drivers can't get here soon enough.
The problem is that current Driver Assistance Systems (DAS) are nowhere near good enough to meet the threshold you suggest, while at the same time they enable if not actively encourage driver inattention (Tesla finally caved and removed the video game while moving feature from their display, after it was clear the NHTSA was actually going to start doing some of their job again). It goes against more than 80 years of human factors research to believe that if you tell drivers that the car can control itself most of the time, but they need to monitor it and be ready to resume control immediately at any time, that they won't let their attention wander and mentally disengage. A few may be able to do so for short periods of time, but most can't/won't. Pretending otherwise, as Tesla does, is to me criminally irresponsible.
We need Automatic Driving Systems (ADS) that meet something like the standard you describe above, not DAS; we can't call a DAS by a name that implies it's an ADS and then turn it loose on the public. IMO DAS that can steer the car should be banned. I'm also not a fan of ACC, as it's another means of encouraging/enabling driver disengagement. With conventional CC I know if I don't watch what's going on I will
hit any car I overtake if I don't take action - ACC will prevent that much of the time, but not in critical situations that are most likely to cause a serious or fatal accident, and which require a driver response that is both instantaneous and correct.