General EV sales topic

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Both IEVS:
Record Market Share For EVs In The USA And Europe

In the US, share was 5.1 percent between January and October 2022. In Europe, more than 1 vehicle out of 10 is electric.

https://insideevs.com/news/623664/record-market-share-evs-us-europe/


There are very positive sales results for electric cars in the United States and Europe. Interestingly, the latest data released by JATO Dynamics indicates the growth in demand for EVs goes beyond China, the largest market in the world for this type of vehicle.

The market share of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in the US was 5.1 percent between January and October 2022 [GRA note: I believe this is actually PEVs, not just BEVs. The European totals include both, but the chart is mislabeled]. While still small compared to the strong presence of combustion engine vehicles, it is remarkable to see the growth compared to previous years. For example, in the first ten months of 2021, BEVs accounted for 2.9 percent of the total market.

Two years earlier, from January-October 2020, EVs were just 1.7 percent of all new vehicle sales. In 2019, BEVs accounted for 1.3 percent of the total market. The popularity of the Tesla Model Y and the good start of electric trucks, such as the GMC Hummer EV and Ford F-150 Lightning, explains part of the rapid growth.

The trend is expected to continue in 2023 with the arrival of more affordable electric SUVs and trucks. Importantly, US consumers mostly buy these vehicles.

More Than 1 In 10 Cars In Europe Are Electric

Despite the progress, the US electric car market lags behind Europe. JATO data covering 23 European markets shows that these vehicles accounted for 12 percent of new car registrations through October 2022. That equates to 1.09 million units out of 9.09 million for the entire market. The total rises to 1.86 million when plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are added.

The European boom can be explained by better infrastructure, more choices for consumers, and good offers. Indeed, it is sometimes easier to buy a new electric car than a petrol one. This is due to the shift in priority that OEMs are giving to their products.

Since the problem of semiconductors is likely to remain a supply issue, the few available are used in the most popular models (especially SUVs) or in those that are easier to sell, such as EVs thanks to public incentives.accounted for 12 percent of new car registrations through October 2022. That equates to 1.09 million units out of 9.09 million for the entire market. The total rises to 1.86 million when plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are added.

Thus, the European total was 1.9 times higher than the American one. The gap has narrowed significantly since 2020. In that year, there were 2.5 EVs registered in Europe for every EV sold in the US. The ratio dropped to 2.4 between January and October 2021.

What Will Happen In The Future?
These two markets are expected to see higher numbers for electric vehicles next year. Rapid adoption in some markets is driven by more competitive offerings. More accessible and interesting products will arrive next year.

The introduction of these vehicles includes large trucks and SUVs in the US and small and compact SUVs in Europe. As consumer awareness increases and their willingness to drive electric is bolstered by better cars, it wouldn't be strange to see double-digit market share for BEVs in the US and over 20 percent in Europe for 2023.




Canada EV Sales Up By A Third In 2022, Still Behind The Rest Of The World

One in eight new passenger vehicles bought in Canada in H1 2022 was a plug-in.

https://insideevs.com/news/623692/canada-ev-sales-lagging-golbally/


The switch to electric vehicles seems to be more difficult in Canada than in other developed countries, even though more and more people are choosing to go electric than ever before. EV sales in the country went up by 30 percent in the first half of 2022, but according to one report, that is not enough for Canada to keep pace with other areas of the world where the shift is happening quicker.

According to findings published by BloombergNEF, quoted by Automotive News Canda, one in eight new vehicles bought globally between January and June was either a full electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid, which is up on the same period last year when one out of every eleven vehicles could be plugged in.

For Canada, the proportion is roughly one EV for every fourteen new vehicles bought in the first half of 2022, which is an improvement over a year prior when it was one EV for 20 vehicles. In fact, EV sales have reached a six-month record, with 55,600 EVs sold in the first half of the year, marking a 35 percent increase over the same period in 2021.

The Canadian Automobile Association says there are 80 battery-electric vehicles currently on sale in the country and that their average price is $82,000 CAD. EV buyers do benefit from a $5,000 state rebate, although in order to qualify, a vehicle needs to have a base price no higher than $55,000.

There are also state rebates in Quebec and British Columbia and it shows in better-than-average EV sales here. In fact, in British Columbia one in six new vehicles bought in H1 2022 was electric, noticeably higher than the national average - that’s 13 percent of new cars that are fully-electric. Quebec follows with 11.4 percent, with Ontario coming in a distant third position with 5.5 percent (the state had an EV incentive program, but it was stopped in 2018).

Canada wants 60 percent of all passenger vehicles sold in the country in 2030 to be fully-electric, or around 480,000 units, before only allowing the sale of EVs after 2035. For reference, in the first half of 2022, just under 56,000 of all new vehicles sold in Canada were electric, which marked a 35 percent year-over-year increase.
 
IEVS:
California Announces Almost 18 Percent Of Cars Bought In 2022 Were Electric

That’s around three times more than the national average, which is currently around the 6 percent mark.

https://insideevs.com/news/619370/california-18-percent-new-cars-electric/


California leads the way in electrification in the United States with a much greater proportion of new cars bought that are fully-electric. According to the Office of the Governor of California, 17.7 percent of new cars sold through the month of were electric vehicles, marking a 126.9 percent increase over 2020.

The state expects that EV sales will continue going up at an increased rate as it intends to ban the sale of pure gas-burning vehicle after the year 2035. According to a graph shown by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the projection is that half of all cars sold in the state will be plug-ins (EVs and PHEVs) by 2028, reaching nearly 70 percent in 2030. . . .

According to CARB Chair Liane Randolph,

Rapidly accelerating the number of ZEVs on our roads and highways will deliver substantial emission and pollution reductions to all Californians, especially for those who live near roadways and suffer from persistent air pollution.

The regulation includes ground-breaking strategies to bring ZEVs to more communities and is supported by the Governor’s ZEV budget which provides incentives to make ZEVs available to the widest number of economic groups in California, including low- and moderate-income consumers.


California may be a leader in the US when it comes to the number of electrified vehicles being purchased, but it can’t compare to the world leader, Norway. The northern European nation has unmatched EV adoption statistics, with as many as 80 percent of new car purchases being for fully-electric vehicles during certain months - it is expected to completely shift its new car market to EVs even before the European Union-imposed deadline of 2035, even if EV sales growth in the country is not the most consistent; a decline has been observed over the past few months.

But for the US, 18 percent of new cars being EVs is still an impressive achievement, although it’s worth noting that most of these vehicles are Teslas, which is not the case in Europe where the choice of EVs among buyers is much more varied. Europeans still buy Teslas, but not overwhelmingly so like American buyers do, and the American EV manufacturer won’t have as easy a time becoming a leader on the Old Continent as it did in America.
 
Both EVAdoption:
Q3 Sales Up 11.6% for EVs With OEM Reported Sales Numbers

https://evadoption.com/q3-sales-up-11-6-percent-for-evs-with-oem-reported-sales-numbers/


Sales of the EV models with automaker reported sales were up 11.6% in Q3 versus Q2 2022, according to new analysis from EVAdoption’s EV Sales Scoreboard. While solid overall growth, this was a decline of roughly 34 percentage points from the second quarter increase of 45.3 percent over Q1.

Average US sales of the 32 EV models for which OEMs reported sales and that were available in the period July-September, were up an average 10.5%. On a median basis, however, sales declined 23.5% in Q3 over Q2.

Nine BEVs and PHEVs had positive growth in Q3, while 19 models saw declines in Q3, although two of those models (Honda Clarity and Mazda MX-30) have been discontinued, sales of the Toyota bZ4X were halted while they fixed a mechanical issue; and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is in transition to the new 2023 model. Five other models were new to the market in Q3 and did not have sales in Q2.

EVs With the Biggest Q3 vs. Q2 Sales Increase and Decrease
F
ive EVs had a greater than 100% Q3 sales increase:

Volkswagen ID.4: 301%
BMW i4: 206.6%
Ford F-150 Lightning: 181.5%
Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV: 111.8%
Lucid Air: 105.9%

10 EVs had a decline of greater than 40%:

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV: -98.5% (Transitioning to an upgraded version for 2023)
Honda Clarity: -98.1% (Discontinued but Honda is still reporting sales)
Mazda MX-30: -94.1% (Production for the US discontinued)
Volvo C40: -62.4%
Nissan LEAF: -60.8%
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid: -49.0%
Audi e-tron Sportback: -48.9%
Porsche Taycan: -47.5%
Audi e-tron: -40.2%
Ford E-Transit: -40.2% - - - -

PHEV Sales Trends

Overall PHEV model sales were down 6.2 percent for Q3 versus Q2, and individual model sales were down an average 38.4% and on a median basis, declined 23.5%. With a sales increase of 24.1%, the Jeep Wrangler 4xe was the only PHEV with positive QoQ growth. The strong sales of the Wrangler 4xe continue in 2022, with solid increases in each quarter. The Wrangler 4xe is on pace to finish 2022 as the highest selling PHEV for the second consecutive year and also as the highest-selling EV in the US after the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 BEVs.

The Toyota RAV4 Prime PHEV had a very disappointing Q3 with a 19.3% decline over Q2 and continuing QoQ declines in 2002. The Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid (PHEV) had a sales decline of 49%, perhaps due to strong sales of the Toyota Sienna minivan, which is now available only as a regular hybrid.

BEV Sales Trends

Overall BEV sales of OEM reported models increased 18.8% in Q3 versus Q2. The average sales change for individual models was up 27.6%, but the median sales change was a decrease of 22.3%. Twelve BEVs saw sales declines in Q3, while 8 had sales increases. Seven BEV models we considered not applicable as the models either began selling in Q3, were discontinued in earlier quarters, or in the case of the Toyota bZ4X sales were halted due to recall.

Despite a 4.9% decline in Q3 sales, the Ford Mustang Mach-E is on track to end 2023 as the top-selling non-Tesla BEV. The two Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV models would have to outsell the Mach-E by more than 6,000 units in Q4 to surpass the Ford BEV. The 301% increase for the VW ID.4 was impressive and the model could continue to see strong growth as production volume scales as it is now being produced in Volkswagen’s Chattanooga, TN factory.

The Ford F-150 Lightning also had strong growth of 181.5%, but was still only on a monthly pace of around 2,150 units. At this pace, the Lightning would only reach annual sales of roughly 26,000. I expect Ford to continue to scale up production in Q4 and in 2023, and potentially reaching sales of 50,000 units next year. . . .


Related to the above, and to the likelihood of PEVs reaching the mass market:
82% of BEVs & PHEVs Available in the US in 2022 Have a Base MSRP of $40,000+

https://evadoption.com/82-of-bevs-phevs-available-in-the-us-in-2022-have-a-base-msrp-of-40000/


Out of 82 BEVs and PHEVs that are either currently available for sale in the US, or expected to be so by the end of 2022, 67 of them, or 81.7%, have a base manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) higher than $39,999, according to new analysis from EVAdoption. Fifteen or 18.3% have a base MSRP below $40,000 and 31 or 37.8% are at $70,000 or higher. (See notes and methodology at the end of this article.)

Average Transaction Prices

The actual transaction price that consumers are paying for electric vehicles is of course much higher when delivery charges, sales tax, fees, options, and upgrades including everything from paint color and wheel options to driver assist systems are added to the base MSRP. Then throw in the current trend of dealer markups known as “dealer market adjustments” or DMAs. Not all dealers add these markups, but many do and they can range from just a few hundred dollars up to $50,000 or more (which I personally saw on a Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV recently). DMAs of $5,000 to $7,500 are relatively common among luxury EVs. Add all of these additional costs up and buyers can easily pay $10,000-$15,000 more for an EV than the base MSRP. According to Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price for an EV in the US in September 2022 was $65,291, which is $17,197 more than the $48,094 average transaction price of all vehicles.

On the positive side, 55% or 45 of the EVs that are or will be available in 2022 have a base MSRP below $60,000. And while there are no EVs available today below $20,000, there are five that have a base MSRP below $30,000 including the popular selling Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV. Eighteen or 22% of EVs have a base MSRP of $80,000 or higher including 14 that are priced above $100,000.

Mean and Median EV MSRPs

The mean MSRP across both BEVs and PHEVs is $75,637 while the mean for BEVs is $66,520 and $87,879 for PHEVs, however that includes two Ferrari PHEVs that cost $625,000 and $322,986. When not including the two Ferraris, the mean MSRP of the PHEVs drops to $64,479, about $2,000 less than the mean BEV MSRP. The median MSRP of all the EVs is $56,900, a significant $18,737 less than the mean MSRP. . . .

Lack of Affordable EVs Remains a Key Hurdle to Mass Adoption

By the end of 2022 there will be at least 80 EVs available in the US, a growing spectrum of model types including pickups, growing awareness of EV models and their advantages, and with most BEVs having near or at least 250 miles of range (many with near or more than 300). As a result, perhaps the two biggest hurdles to mass adoption in the US are now a poor public charging experience and the lack of many EVs available at around or under $30,000. Most automakers have been focused on bringing higher-end EVs to market that is within reach of higher-income early adopters. And in fact, there are very few low-priced EVs on the way, with GM’s Chevrolet Equinox being the most promising high-volume BEV with a target MSRP of around $30,000 and expected to arrive at dealers in the fall of 2023. . . .
 
IEVS:
Italy's EV Slump Is Far From Over: Plug-Ins at 8.3% In October 2022

Plug-in hybrids performed rather well for the month, which is unusual.

https://insideevs.com/news/625073/italy-ev-slump-plugins-8-percent-october-2022/


October 2022 was another month of misery for Italy’s once-promising EV market. In stark contrast with the rest of Europe’s main arenas, which keep making strides in electric mobility adoption, the Mediterranean country is still in the midst of an identity crisis.

Official statistics from Unrae for the month of October dim the picture even further than previous recent months. While the overall car market continued its rebound, the same was not for plug-in cars.

Over 117,000 cars were registered this month, an increase of 14% Year-On-Year (YoY) from less than 103,000 in October 2021. In a surprising twist, petrol and diesel powertrains both increased their market share YoY, reaching 27.4% and 18.7%, respectively, up from 25.8% and 18.1% a year ago, although their combined share is now steadily below 50% of the market. Plugless hybrids maintained their dominance, reaching a near peak of 36.3% of the market and consolidating their lead in 2022.

Fully electric cars were instead subject to the most severe crash to date in absolute and relative terms. Only 3,695 units were registered in October, for a negligible 3.1% share in a rebounding market. This meant a gigantic 48.1% YoY decline (!) from 7,123 registrations just twelve months ago, when BEVs had reached a near 7% share
. What could explain this catastrophic decline?

With new incentives in place now for a few months, only upcoming economic turmoil and the shift to a new political government might be considered to have contributed internally, although other broader, more logistical factors could be the outside cause of this new minimum. With the start of the fourth quarter, BEV deliveries may have fallen short of usual numbers in Italy, due to ongoing supply shortages and the prioritization of other European markets by car makers. It is surely hoped this is the rock bottom from which BEVs should look back up going forward, but one cannot be too sure, as winter is coming, literally and figuratively.

Plug-in hybrids, on the other hand, performed rather well for the month. With 6,116 registrations, PHEVs reached a 5.2% market share, growing a substantial 17.4% YoY from 5,209 units twelve months prior (when they took 5.1% share). This is an unusual increase for plug-in hybrids, which are otherwise seeing flat sales elsewhere in the continent, as consumers mostly turn to favor BEVs as new models enter the scene.

Thanks to the bumper performance of PHEVs, overall plug-in sales reached 8.3% market share, above recent lows experienced over the summer period but far from the exceptional 12% share of October 2021. Also, this level was reached through a low BEVs to PHEVs ratio that goes against the natural trends found in all other major automotive markets. . . .

The poor performance of popular mini BEVs, due at least in part to the reduced incentives that disproportionately affect low-margin models, is in turn highlighting the performance of higher price tag new BEVs from medium segments, particularly in a month devoid of Tesla deliveries.

It will be interesting to see how the balance of supply and demand will stabilize BEV figures towards the end of the year, which may or may not be salvaged by individual models’ peak deliveries. For now, one thing is for sure: Italy’s 2022 will close with negative growth for electric mobility and a tricky path forward into 2023.
 
Debated whether to put this in its own topic but decided here would work, although it's more about recent past and near-future global effects rather than current sales.

BNEF via ABG:
Rising battery prices threaten to derail the arrival of affordable EVs
Falling prices halted largely due to the increase in mineral prices

https://www.autoblog.com/2022/12/06/electric-car-rising-battery-prices/


Falling battery prices have been one of the most consistent trends in the electric vehicle industry for the last decade. Prices dropped from well over $1,000 per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to $141 per kWh last year. This jump-started one of the biggest shifts in the auto industry in the last century, spurring automakers to plow billions of dollars into EVs.

The trend has ground to a halt this year, with BloombergNEF’s annual lithium-ion battery price survey showing a 7% increase in average pack prices in 2022 in real terms. This is the first increase in the history of the survey.

There are several factors driving the uptick, but the single most important one is rising costs for materials including cobalt, nickel and lithium. While prices for nickel and cobalt have come down in recent months, and lithium may be about to turn, each of these are still higher than they have been in previous years. This is driven by surging battery demand and a lag in how fast new supply can be brought online.

The average battery price would have been even higher if not for the shift to lower-cost lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which contain no nickel or cobalt. LFP batteries have gained significant market share in the last three years, with BloombergNEF expecting them to account for around 40% of global EV sales this year. . . .

To arrive at the average price, BNEF gathered almost 200 survey data points from buyers and sellers of lithium-ion batteries going into passenger EVs, commercial vehicles, buses and stationary storage applications. The headline figure is a volume-weighted average, so it hides a lot of variation by region and application. The lowest prices recorded were for electric buses and commercial vehicles in China at $131 per kWh. Average pack prices for fully electric passenger vehicles were $138 per kWh.

On a regional basis, pack prices were cheapest in China, at $127 per kWh. Packs in the U.S. and Europe were 24% and 33% higher, respectively.

The big question is what happens next. BloombergNEF’s energy storage team expects prices to remain elevated next year, rising slightly in real terms over 2022 levels. Beyond that, the team is expecting prices to begin falling again in 2024 as more raw material supply comes online, supply chain pressures ease, and next-generation battery technologies and pack designs start to make their way into the vehicle mix.

An oft cited benchmark for when EVs hit price parity with conventional vehicles is $100 per kWh. Based on the updated estimates for the learning rate for batteries from this year’s survey, BNEF predicts that average pack prices should fall below that threshold by 2026. This is two years later than previously expected.

It’s worth noting, though, that $100 per kWh is a nominal figure that’s been around for over a decade and doesn’t fully take into account how the cost of almost everything has increased due to inflation, particularly in the last 18 months. . . .

EV price parity is better thought of as a range than a fixed threshold. At today’s battery prices, some vehicle segments can already go fully electric cost-effectively without subsidies. Premium electric vehicles, for example, arguably are at price parity with internal combustion models already, as are mini city cars in China, where EV options start at just $5,000. For commercial vehicles like buses and delivery vans, where total cost of ownership matters most, parity is also already here or very close depending on the region and usage pattern.

Battery prices do still need to fall further for more of the middle market to go electric this decade. That's definitely still achievable, but will require much more investment in all areas of the battery supply chain, as well as in R&D and manufacturing process improvements.
 
GRA said:
https://www.autoblog.com/2022/12/06/electric-car-rising-battery-prices/
EV price parity is better thought of as a range than a fixed threshold. At today’s battery prices, some vehicle segments can already go fully electric cost-effectively without subsidies. Premium electric vehicles, for example, arguably are at price parity with internal combustion models already, as are mini city cars in China, where EV options start at just $5,000. For commercial vehicles like buses and delivery vans, where total cost of ownership matters most, parity is also already here or very close depending on the region and usage pattern.

Battery prices do still need to fall further for more of the middle market to go electric this decade. That's definitely still achievable, but will require much more investment in all areas of the battery supply chain, as well as in R&D and manufacturing process improvements.
[/quote]

Oddly, that is something I've been saying.

No subsidies, some segments BEVs are the winners now. And for a few years. Wide acceptance needs battery costs and prices to fall, which is likely mid-decade.

PHEVs don't make sense in most segments for most people. Unless subsidized.

For example, mini city cars are likely never driven far enough to need a charge away from home/work. Adding an ICE would add expense, size and reduce payload and space.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
https://www.autoblog.com/2022/12/06/electric-car-rising-battery-prices/
EV price parity is better thought of as a range than a fixed threshold. At today’s battery prices, some vehicle segments can already go fully electric cost-effectively without subsidies. Premium electric vehicles, for example, arguably are at price parity with internal combustion models already, as are mini city cars in China, where EV options start at just $5,000. For commercial vehicles like buses and delivery vans, where total cost of ownership matters most, parity is also already here or very close depending on the region and usage pattern.

Battery prices do still need to fall further for more of the middle market to go electric this decade. That's definitely still achievable, but will require much more investment in all areas of the battery supply chain, as well as in R&D and manufacturing process improvements.


Oddly, that is something I've been saying.

No subsidies, some segments BEVs are the winners now. And for a few years. Wide acceptance needs battery costs and prices to fall, which is likely mid-decade.

PHEVs don't make sense in most segments for most people. Unless subsidized.

Except that PHEVs are cheaper than comparable BEVs and you don't need to subsidize them as much or at all, so the middle market can afford them years sooner, especially as they can easily get by with only L1 charging. That BNEF report says the average pack price/kWh in the US in 2022 is about $157. The 65kWh (never been sure if that was total or usable, but assuming the former) in the Bolt would then cost $157 x 65 = $10,205. To calculate what a PHEV version of the 3,779 lb. Bolt EUV might come to, let's start with a 2,857 lb. 2020 Sonic as it already includes the ICE, with a $16,720 base MSRP in 2020; let's crank that up to $20k now for inflation and a cushion. The Sonic's 4.4" longer than the EUV, but 1.4" narrower and 3.9" lower than the EUV. With enough battery to meet California's 30 mile (45 mile UDDS) AER it would need say 10kWh total, for an additional $1,570 on top of the Sonic's estimated $20k base MSRP (if it were still being sold); let's call it $23k with the additional electric equipment (motor, OBC, wiring etc.). The 2023 Bolt EUV base MSRP is $27,200, so AOTBE $4,200 less for the PHEV.

A few years back I posted data about the Bolt pack's specific energy; can't remember if it was for the 60 or 66 (now 65) kWh pack, but IIRR it was 140Wh/kg. vs. the Model 3's 150Wh/kg. Using 140 Wh/kg. the Sonic PHEV would add about 160 lb. for the pack plus some extra weight for the other equipment and knock-on effects (bigger tires & shocks etc.). Let's be conservative and call it 500 lb. total, so a curb weight of 3,357 lb., 422 lb. lighter than the EUV.


WetEV said:
For example, mini city cars are likely never driven far enough to need a charge away from home/work. Adding an ICE would add expense, size and reduce payload and space.

I must have missed where we've got safety-reg compliant City cars selling for $5k in the U.S., although if we had any they might sell in decent numbers. In the case of city cars, absolutely you don't need an ICE, but city cars are far more popular outside of the U.S. than here. To date, American consumers simply won't buy them. Now, get them down to $10-$15k and maybe they might - I told the guy who rented the Think City to me back in the '90s that they needed to get the price down to $10-12k from the $13-15k they were projecting then. Back in 2012 Smart's had a base MSRP of around $13k, and they weren't selling then. To be sure, the BEV version drove better, but people were buying the far more expensive (but subsidized) ED in even smaller numbers when it appeared.

In the meantime, PHEVs make sense for far more people here than limited range and capability city cars. And in Italy at the moment as noted a couple of posts up, PHEVs are selling better than BEVs, even though they actually buy tiny cars like the 500 in large numbers. IDK the full explanation, but as the article noted the decrease in subsidies undoubtedly plays a big part.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
https://www.autoblog.com/2022/12/06/electric-car-rising-battery-prices/
EV price parity is better thought of as a range than a fixed threshold. At today’s battery prices, some vehicle segments can already go fully electric cost-effectively without subsidies. Premium electric vehicles, for example, arguably are at price parity with internal combustion models already, as are mini city cars in China, where EV options start at just $5,000. For commercial vehicles like buses and delivery vans, where total cost of ownership matters most, parity is also already here or very close depending on the region and usage pattern.

Battery prices do still need to fall further for more of the middle market to go electric this decade. That's definitely still achievable, but will require much more investment in all areas of the battery supply chain, as well as in R&D and manufacturing process improvements.


Oddly, that is something I've been saying.

No subsidies, some segments BEVs are the winners now. And for a few years. Wide acceptance needs battery costs and prices to fall, which is likely mid-decade.

PHEVs don't make sense in most segments for most people. Unless subsidized.

Except that PHEVs are cheaper than comparable BEVs and you don't need to subsidize them as much or at all, so the middle market can afford them years sooner, especially as they can easily get by with only L1 charging.

PHEVs are more expensive than comparable HEVs. HEVs are not subsidized directly, don't get freeway lane access, and better gas mileage than the comparable PHEV and ICE. Don't need no charging. So why not taking over the market? Why not?


GRA said:
That BNEF report says the average pack price/kWh in the US in 2022 is about $157. The 65kWh (never been sure if that was total or usable, but assuming the former) in the Bolt would then cost $157 x 65 = $10,205. To calculate what a PHEV version of the 3,779 lb. Bolt EUV might come to, let's start with a 2,857 lb. 2020 Sonic as it already includes the ICE, with a $16,720 base MSRP in 2020; let's crank that up to $20k now for inflation and a cushion. The Sonic's 4.4" longer than the EUV, but 1.4" narrower and 3.9" lower than the EUV. With enough battery to meet California's 30 mile (45 mile UDDS) AER it would need say 10kWh total, for an additional $1,570 on top of the Sonic's estimated $20k base MSRP (if it were still being sold); let's call it $23k with the additional electric equipment (motor, OBC, wiring etc.). The 2023 Bolt EUV base MSRP is $27,200, so AOTBE $4,200 less for the PHEV.

A few years back I posted data about the Bolt pack's specific energy; can't remember if it was for the 60 or 66 (now 65) kWh pack, but IIRR it was 140Wh/kg. vs. the Model 3's 150Wh/kg. Using 140 Wh/kg. the Sonic PHEV would add about 160 lb. for the pack plus some extra weight for the other equipment and knock-on effects (bigger tires & shocks etc.). Let's be conservative and call it 500 lb. total, so a curb weight of 3,357 lb., 422 lb. lighter than the EUV.

The design and production cycle takes about 5 years from start to volume production, and is in production for another 5 years.

An oft cited benchmark for when EVs hit price parity with conventional vehicles is $100 per kWh. Based on the updated estimates for the learning rate for batteries from this year’s survey, BNEF predicts that average pack prices should fall below that threshold by 2026.

So if designed a vehicle today, That BNEF report says the average pack price/kWh in the US in 2026 is about $100, would be less in 2027 when production begins, and still less each year of production. Say an average cost over production life of $80 per kWh. The 65kWh (never been sure if that was total or usable, but assuming the former) in the Bolt would then cost $80 x 65 = $5,200, a savings of $77 x 65 = $5,005 from today's Bolt.. To calculate what a PHEV version of the 3,779 lb. Bolt EUV might come to, let's start with a 2,857 lb. 2020 Sonic as it already includes the ICE, with a $16,720 base MSRP in 2020; let's crank that up to $20k now for inflation and a cushion. The Sonic's 4.4" longer than the EUV, but 1.4" narrower and 3.9" lower than the EUV. With enough battery to meet California's 30 mile (45 mile UDDS) AER it would need say 10kWh total, for an additional $1,000 (high specific power batteries) on top of the Sonic's estimated $20k base MSRP (if it were still being sold); let's call it $22.5k with the additional electric equipment (motor, OBC, wiring etc.). The 2026 Bolt EUV base MSRP would be $27,200 less $5,005 = $22,195, so basically the same price. A little cheaper for the BEV.

Unless you have a time machine, you need to start this design today.

Drive a Sonic and a Bolt, and ask which one you would rather drive. These are NOT comparable cars. Sure, some would prefer the Sonic, in Montana, with limited public charging. That is where PHEVs, HEVs and ICEs will sell in 10 years. Maybe not in 20 years.
 
Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots
https://www.axios.com/2023/07/10/unsold-electric-cars-are-piling-up-on-dealer-lots

Ford Dealers Can’t Move All The Mustang Mach-Es They Have For Sale
Thousands of Mach-Es are sitting on dealer lots across the country, waiting for buyers.
https://jalopnik.com/ford-mustang-mach-e-dealers-ev-too-much-inventory-1850632717
 
Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots

Food, housing and inflation have maxed people out.

Most EVs are too big and too expensive. I suspect that many potential buyers think of an EV as an urban car, a second car to be used for commuting and local chores. I don't think this will change until governments stop subsidizing carbon and tax it heavily. In places where fueling a car costs two or three times what we pay in North America you don't find many V8 engines.
 
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