oxothuk
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 3:42 pm
lorenfb wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 1:22 pm
Time = 12.96 sec (as per my 5/14 post)
Yes, and as noted before, that's the daily time. So 4745 seconds total for the year.

Battery storage purpose is NOT to be a primary source of electricity, but an enabler for bringing more solar/wind energy into the grid.
I think the point is that we only have enough battery storage to buffer the grid for 13 seconds. After that the batteries must be recharged (not clear how long that might take) before we can buffer the grid for another 13 seconds.

We need a buffer of maybe 12-18 hours in order to balance diurnal variations in RE supply. To balance seasonal variations and prolonged doldrums we would need MUCH more, so much that batteries will never be practical; chemical storage is probably the only option. Chemical storage would waste around half of the energy round-trip, and would require us to design conversion processes that can work economically with intermittent energy input.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

oxothuk wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 4:02 pm
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 3:42 pm
lorenfb wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 1:22 pm
Time = 12.96 sec (as per my 5/14 post)
Yes, and as noted before, that's the daily time. So 4745 seconds total for the year.

Battery storage purpose is NOT to be a primary source of electricity, but an enabler for bringing more solar/wind energy into the grid.
I think the point is that we only have enough battery storage to buffer the grid for 13 seconds. After that the batteries must be recharged (not clear how long that might take) before we can buffer the grid for another 13 seconds.

We need a buffer of maybe 12-18 hours in order to balance diurnal variations in RE supply. To balance seasonal variations and prolonged doldrums we would need MUCH more, so much that batteries will never be practical; chemical storage is probably the only option.
No. That's the point of the overbuild solution. You build enough solar/wind/geothermal/pumped-hydro to supply the grid during the low seasons, so that you won't need more than 4 hrs of battery storage the rest of the time, because there's an excess amount of solar + wind. Focusing on trying to solve the seasonal variations has been a distraction away from simply building out solar + wind as quickly as possible. Overbuilding optimizes the available battery production capacity to minimize the time it takes to electrify transportation AND the grid.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Oh shoot. I just had an epiphany! You're all saying that it'll be a LONG TIME before we get enough batteries for 4hrs of storage. With 1.6GWh being only enough for 13 seconds, and thus 10x that would only be enough for 130 seconds, and to get to 4hrs, we'd need 14,400 seconds of battery storage (which would be ~1772 GWh of batteries)!

Was that everyone's point? Welps, gotta start somewhere. Much like with solar and wind, it's all additive. Secondly, summer months uses more electricity than winter months, since winter heating is usually best solved by burning something (wood pellets being the least CO2 impact of all the fuels), so we don't actually need that much battery storage to get to 4hrs worth of battery storage for all year round needs.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

And 100 million EVs (of all types) with and average of 100 kWh batteries yields 10,000 giga-watthours of energy storage. Can that many batteries be produced and when?
May want to check my math also :mrgreen:
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oxothuk
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 4:13 pm
oxothuk wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 4:02 pm
I think the point is that we only have enough battery storage to buffer the grid for 13 seconds. After that the batteries must be recharged (not clear how long that might take) before we can buffer the grid for another 13 seconds.

We need a buffer of maybe 12-18 hours in order to balance diurnal variations in RE supply. To balance seasonal variations and prolonged doldrums we would need MUCH more, so much that batteries will never be practical; chemical storage is probably the only option.
No. That's the point of the overbuild solution. You build enough solar/wind/geothermal/pumped-hydro to supply the grid during the low seasons, so that you won't need more than 4 hrs of battery storage the rest of the time, because there's an excess amount of solar + wind. Focusing on trying to solve the seasonal variations has been a distraction away from simply building out solar + wind as quickly as possible. Overbuilding optimizes the available battery production capacity to minimize the time it takes to electrify transportation AND the grid.
So do you think there are enough suitable sites for pumped hydro to power the whole US grid through windless nights? I'm skeptical of that.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

oxothuk wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 5:12 pm
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 4:13 pm
oxothuk wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 4:02 pm
I think the point is that we only have enough battery storage to buffer the grid for 13 seconds. After that the batteries must be recharged (not clear how long that might take) before we can buffer the grid for another 13 seconds.

We need a buffer of maybe 12-18 hours in order to balance diurnal variations in RE supply. To balance seasonal variations and prolonged doldrums we would need MUCH more, so much that batteries will never be practical; chemical storage is probably the only option.
No. That's the point of the overbuild solution. You build enough solar/wind/geothermal/pumped-hydro to supply the grid during the low seasons, so that you won't need more than 4 hrs of battery storage the rest of the time, because there's an excess amount of solar + wind. Focusing on trying to solve the seasonal variations has been a distraction away from simply building out solar + wind as quickly as possible. Overbuilding optimizes the available battery production capacity to minimize the time it takes to electrify transportation AND the grid.
So do you think there are enough suitable sites for pumped hydro to power the whole US grid through windless nights? I'm skeptical of that.
Weather isn't so homogenous that a windless night in Idaho is also windless in Texas and Arizona. Likewise with cloudy days.

Besides, once we're approaching the overbuilt solar/wind scenario, we will have enough free energy to consider synthesizing methane as feedstock for any remaining natural gas peaker plants. That would change those peaker plants into being carbon-neutral and not need to be shut down.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Marktm wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 4:58 pm And 100 million EVs (of all types) with and average of 100 kWh batteries yields 10,000 giga-watthours of energy storage. Can that many batteries be produced and when?
May want to check my math also :mrgreen:
Ford's F-150 lightning is a great step in the right direction, as the batteries there can also double as grid-storage batteries (requires the installation of an EVSE that's capable of V2G). Ford isn't alone in this thinking.

And yes, that many batteries can be produced, the when is ~2030 (if all goes according to plan). Tesla had already set a goal of producing 3 TWh of batteries annually by 2030 (most of it for use in grid storage though). If they succeed, others will follow.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:41 pm
oxothuk wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 5:12 pm

So do you think there are enough suitable sites for pumped hydro to power the whole US grid through windless nights? I'm skeptical of that.
Weather isn't so homogenous that a windless night in Idaho is also windless in Texas and Arizona. Likewise with cloudy days.
It's more homogeneous than you think, at least some of the time.
Besides, once we're approaching the overbuilt solar/wind scenario, we will have enough free energy to consider synthesizing methane as feedstock for any remaining natural gas peaker plants. That would change those peaker plants into being carbon-neutral and not need to be shut down.
Synthesizing methane is a form of chemical storage. Nothing wrong with that, except for the round-trip conversion losses, and that we would need to design synthesizing plans that can work intermittently.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:48 pm
Ford's F-150 lightning is a great step in the right direction, as the batteries there can also double as grid-storage batteries (requires the installation of an EVSE that's capable of V2G). Ford isn't alone in this thinking.

And yes, that many batteries can be produced, the when is ~2030 (if all goes according to plan). Tesla had already set a goal of producing 3 TWh of batteries annually by 2030 (most of it for use in grid storage though). If they succeed, others will follow.
Agreed - Ford/Sunrun will hopefully lead the way - that Nissan has seemingly missed out on (with its bidirectional CHAdeMO connection). Anxious to hear about actual installations and their success. The AC route is likely a better way for most home owners anyway.

"Energy transitioning" vehicle fuels away from diesel and gasoline to electricity has the potential to actually stabilize the renewable transitioning grid. It's a real challenge for the HC industry. Shell has recognized this and others will. Going to be an interesting next decade for sure.
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

oxothuk wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 5:57 am
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:41 pm
oxothuk wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 5:12 pm

So do you think there are enough suitable sites for pumped hydro to power the whole US grid through windless nights? I'm skeptical of that.
Weather isn't so homogenous that a windless night in Idaho is also windless in Texas and Arizona. Likewise with cloudy days.
It's more homogeneous than you think, at least some of the time.
Besides, once we're approaching the overbuilt solar/wind scenario, we will have enough free energy to consider synthesizing methane as feedstock for any remaining natural gas peaker plants. That would change those peaker plants into being carbon-neutral and not need to be shut down.
Synthesizing methane is a form of chemical storage. Nothing wrong with that, except for the round-trip conversion losses, and that we would need to design synthesizing plans that can work intermittently.
The synthesizing plans might need to be designed, but the tech doesn't. Having high conversion losses with the initial iterations of the tech should be accepted at the beginning to provide a learning foundation for future iterations. But this should be spurred by the renewable energy farm owners who don't want to see their energy curtailed.
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