TSLA corporate outlook

dgpcolorado said:

I worry that the frustrations of those trying to use other DCFC stations to travel, and finding them full, broken, or difficult to turn on, will give EVs a bad reputation among those switching from ICE cars and the ubiquitous gas stations. We shall see.

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The EV maker has updated the language on its website in the section dedicated to lease-end options under the "Eligibility" chapter as follows.

• All Tesla vehicles delivered on or after April 15, 2022 are not eligible for purchase.
• Third-party dealerships and third-party individuals are not eligible to purchase leased vehicles.

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cwerdna said:

It seems to be so that they can turn around and control the pricing of a large part of the used market.

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LeftieBiker said:

Shades of the EV-1 and Honda Fit EV.

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SageBrush said:

cwerdna said:

It seems to be so that they can turn around and control the pricing of a large part of the used market.

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Hogwash.

Tesla plans to use the lease returns for its taxi fleet

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dgpcolorado said:

GRA said:

Then we disagree. It isn't a matter of when the majority of cars become electric, it's when the majority of BEV sales here are equipped with CCS, and that's a much closer timeline. CCS is the preferred solution NOW for all non-Tesla BEVs (the remaining CHAdeMO-equipped cars sales are too small to matter), so it's just a question of when all those CCS-equipped car's annual sales overtake Tesla's, and with the Big Three's BEV pickups likely appearing around the same time if not before the Cybertruck does, I expect the sales ratios to start a rapid shift.

Tesla's #1 because they've largely had the market to themselves for expensive, minimal compromise vs. an ICE BEVs, but that's no longer the case. If they convert them gradually to CCS the SCs can become a profit-making sideline for Tesla, or they could just sell them to someone else to operate. Remember the justification for building the SC network: "We can't afford to wait for someone else to do it". Now, lots of someone else(s) are doing it, backed by the U.S. government, so why would they want to devote money and time to keep operating them, when they will provide an ever-diminishing advantage?

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There are several differences between the Supercharger network and the other DCFC stations and networks. One is that the Superchargers are seamless: plug-in, charge, go. No fussing with signing in, cards, payment or the like.
Another is that the Supercharger Stations are integrated into the navigation system. The car knows where they all are and gives real time info on the status of the stations, including how many stalls are available and a rough idea of the line length if all the stalls are in use.

It is hard to overstate how easy it is to use the Supercharger network, compared to the hodge-podge of other DCFC stations. I don't see the CCS networks ever becoming unified, integrated into nav, and as seamless to use as the Superchargers. That may give Tesla an advantage for some time to come, among car buyers in-the-know.

I worry that the frustrations of those trying to use other DCFC stations to travel, and finding them full, broken, or difficult to turn on, will give EVs a bad reputation among those switching from ICE cars and the ubiquitous gas stations. We shall see.

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Tesla being an exception, as their Supercharger activation reliability is/should be higher as they only have to deal with their own cars/payment, rather than having to be compatible with multiple makes and payment methods. It's still Tesla's biggest benefit for road trips, but that advantage will decrease as the density of CCS stations increases, and with the addition of nearby competitors at a given location. In many cases, providing competition at each existing site is more valuable than providing increased density, as far as minimizing travel times and stops by increasing reliability and confidence.

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GRA said:

Given my own spotty success in activating DCFCs using phone, credit or provider card on the Bolt trip I took in Oct. 2020, (3 successes for 11 attempts: 1 for 8 for EA including 0 for 4 with my phone; 2 for 3 for CP), lack of activation reliability at non-Tesla chargers remains a major problem. However, as charging moves from a government-subsidized frill to a profitable business, increased competition will lead to improved reliability. In addition, more and more car manufacturers are adopting Plug and Charge, so that will also narrow and eventually eliminate Tesla's SC advantage.

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Tesla suggests possible shift to 800V in Cybertruck and Semi, not Robotaxi or 3/Y

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Tesla has reengineered its Model Y around easier manufacturability, employing a structural pack, new-format 4680 cells, and huge cast front and rear body sections.

Despite all that innovation, a shift to an 800-volt architecture isn’t planned on any of Tesla’s smaller models anytime soon. But based on comments from CEO Elon Musk and CTO Drew Baglino on the company’s Q1 call with analysts and investors Wednesday, it’s a distinct possibility for the Cybertruck, the Semi, and any other larger or higher-power vehicles.

“There’s nothing really encouraging us to do so on that platform,” Baglino explained about Model 3 and Model Y. “It’s really about mass and power…and as you look at bigger vehicles, there are some advantages.”

Baglino called it a case-by-case consideration—that “there’s some wins and losses with 800 volts; not everything is better.”

Musk also explained that years from now it probably makes sense to go with 800V, “but it really needs a very big vehicle volume to pay for the cost of changing from 400 to 800 volts.”

“On bigger vehicles, where you’re talking about higher power on the charging side or higher power from the battery to the power electronics or you need more torque, so the current requirements go up, there’s a little bit more semiconductor and actual conductor savings of going to the higher voltage,” said Baglino. “And so we do consider that for Semi and Cybertruck. . . .”

At Tesla’s recent official opening for its gigantic Texas factory, Musk promised those products next year, while also teasing a “quite futuristic” Robotaxi project that—he clarified in the call—aims to harness the automakers self-driving capabilities while cutting the per-mile cost to below that of subsidized public transit.

But don’t expect the Robotaxi to go 800V either.

"For the 3/Y platform, where we’ve got everything running, the benefit is questionably small,” added Baglino, with Musk chiming in that “it’s basically zero for Robotaxi.”

Other automakers who don’t have to figure in the “legacy costs” of upgrading Tesla’s Supercharger network might reach some different conclusions, however.

Baglino’s explanations—for investors—were focused almost entirely on vehicle cost, not on efficiency. Meanwhile, the rival EV maker Lucid has underscored that efficiency (in terms of both energy and packaging) is what drove its choice of more than 900 volts, with performance advantages that result from that fundamental decision. As Porsche found with its Taycan, sourcing an entire system of components to make the most of that 800-volt potential can be especially challenging—part of the reason Lucid turned to engineering a full suite of core components in-house.

An 800-volt pack layout would permit faster charging. Ahead of Supercharger V3 tech, Musk seemed to tease that possibility with the idea of 350-kw charging back in 2016, when he tweeted: “A mere 350 kw…what are you referring to, a mere children’s toy?”

Most executives have reached a consensus that higher-voltage systems are the future—especially for larger vehicles and performance models. As early as September 2020, the supplier Delphi confirmed a broad shift to 800V systems for luxury EVs due by 2025.

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India Still Doesn’t Want Tesla Importing Cars From China
The government has made it clear that if it is to allow Tesla to operate in India, the vehicles must be manufactured there.

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Tesla wants to enter the Indian car market but can’t because it apparently is in a stalemate with the local government. The automaker doesn’t want to commit to opening a factory in India before it tests the market with vehicles imported from China, while the government has made it clear that it would prefer if the vehicles were manufactured locally.

This has reportedly been the situation for almost one year.

In January, Reuters reported information it had about talks between Tesla and the Indian government and how even at that point, local officials were not willing to grant the carmaker any tax benefits unless it committed to building a manufacturing site. Tesla wants a tax cut since according to Elon Musk, India has very high import tariffs (as high as 100%).

Recently, India’s transport minister, Nitin Gadkari, made it official when he said

Making in China and selling here is not a good proposition. . . .

Last year, Tesla registered its Indian division and began taking deposits. Now, according to Indian Express, people who paid the $1,000 deposit are not happy they will not be able to go through with the purchase under current conditions; some apparently already want refunds.

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SAN FRANCISCO, June 3 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O) CEO Elon Musk has a "super bad feeling" about the economy and needs to cut about 10% of jobs at the electric carmaker, he said in an email to executives seen by Reuters.

The message, sent on Thursday and titled "pause all hiring worldwide", came two days after the billionaire told staff to return to the workplace or leave, and adds to a growing chorus of warnings from business leaders about the risks of recession.

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LeftieBiker said:

I think that the biggest danger to Tesla right now is Musk.

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LeftieBiker said:

I think that the biggest danger to Tesla right now is Musk.

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cwerdna said:

Here’s the email Elon Musk sent all Tesla employees about 10% head count reduction
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/heres-the-email-elon-musk-sent-all-tesla-employees-10percent-job-cuts.html

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