GRA
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Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:49 am
GRA wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:07 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:38 pm

Hydrogen stations are complex, expensive, unreliable and scarce. How is that like gas stations, again?
It's not, now. OTOH, it's exactly like public charging stations. On my Bolt trip last year I went a combined 3 for 11 in successful charges: 1 for 8 at EA stations (0 for 4 using my phone, 1 for 4 using the credit card I'd pre-registered with them exactly for this possibility) and 2 for 3 at Chargepoint stations using their membership card (Got it around 2013, but had never used it until last year). The failure at one EA station imposed an 8.5 hour delay on my trip, as I had to sit at an L2 overnight in the next town south.
Nice subject change. You got great propaganda skills.

I've had far more public charges, and fewer failures. So why was your trip so bad? Did you plan it to be bad??
How is discussing the unreliability of charging as well as that of H2 stations a change of subject? Both are immature infrastructures that lack coverage, density, redundancy and reliability, which is why we need websites like Plugshare and the CAFCP's station status one for now. This is no different than when in 1976 Peugeot included a book listing all gas stations that sold diesel in the U.S. with my dad's new 504D, as they were few and far between at the time. Despite that he still had the dealer install a 25 gallon aux. tank in the trunk, giving him 1200 miles of un-refueled range, because he didn't want to ever have to worry about being stranded.

As for why my trip was such a pain, it's simple. Lack of charging stations and poor reliability of activation for the stations that existed. As I'm an old boy scout, was taking the trip partly as an experiment to assess the state of charging to my most common destination area, and had read numerous reports of charger unreliability both at MNL by people who were far more experienced with charging both generally as well as in the area concerned in the area than I (e.g. Paul Gipe and Dan Jones), as well as perusing Plugshare over a long period of time along routes I either have driven or want to drive with numerous similar reports of unreliability, I was prepared for the possibility/likelihood of inability to charge, and had a backup plan (free L2s 26 miles south of Bridgeport in Lee Vining) as well as a backup to that, as well as DCFC'ing at every opportunity enroute.

At Lee Vining, as the Clipper Creek L2s were free and the only activation required was to plug in I figured my odds of success were good, but if that failed I'd need to make a very slow speed drive (ca. 30 mph, the lowest speed the CC could be set) from the chargers in Lee Vining 12.9 miles/3,160' up to Tioga Pass (took me 7.3 kWh the next day, driving at normal speeds, 7.7 kWh a night later) and then hopefully coasting/regen'ing all the way down to Yosemite Valley (another 63 miles, but almost 6,000 feet descent at max. speed limit of 45 mph) to the L2s there, before charging enough to get home. I would have had to accomplish all this with only 32 miles of range shown on the most conservative of the 3 ranges shown on the Bolt's GOM at the start in Lee Vining, if I'd been unable to charge there.

Turns out I needed the backup but not the final backup. In order to have that 35 miles of range in Lee Vining I'd already driven as slow as was safe (55, then slowing to 50 and finally 45 mph; speed limit 65) the 26 miles on 395 from the Bridgeport EA where I'd been unable to charge to Lee Vining; fortunately it was late enough at night that only semis were on the road, and I knew they'd be slowed climbing up to Conway summit enroute so I could slow down ahead of them. the first one caught up to me just as I was entering the reduced speed zone in Lee Vining, so that worked out perfectly.

WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:49 am Reliability varies, of course, and EVgo has been very good for me (no failures, zero failures, 0 failures) and 136 charges. A few I didn't have on my EVgo account, so actual total would be higher. A few times I had to wait. 6 times had to try twice to start the charger, 0kWh session followed by a successful session. Once had to try three times before getting a successful session.

AeroVironment was also very good. Did have to call the phone number a few times as the fob failed to work. Way less than half of the times.

Blink less so. Several failures, only a few dozen charges.

Chargepoint has been very good, but mostly L2 stations.

EA wouldn't be good if they didn't have so many chargers at each location. I've tried two chargers several times before getting one that worked. But only had to move a few feet to try again. When you have 19 plugs/10 chargers to try...

As noted, I had minimal success at EA; the problem wasn't the charger per se, it was activating them. As it happens, even though I was signed up for Pass+ and got charged the $4, because I had to use my CC to activate I had to pay $0.43/kWh rather than $0.31 that it would have cost if my phone app had worked. Contacting them later didn't get the $4 refunded, either. At the time I couldn't call them while at the charger, as I didn't have a transcription app on my phone then (and they need Wi-Fi to work in any case), and I can't hear my cell phone. I do have such an app on my cell phone now, but again, unless the site has WiFi it's unusable.

One CP charger on the trip failed to initiate, but I moved to the one next to it. Oh, and one of the two in Oakdale was displaying a message that read something like "Charger shut off by site owner". As I as there during peak hours I'm guessing that they didn't want to pay high demand charges, and maybe it would be turned back on after 9 p.m.
WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:49 am I know, L1 charging doesn't work at all. Didn't work for you with a Comutacar back in 1981(?), so is doomed for ever and ever, amen.

Funny how your experience and other people's experiences can be so different. And how you talk up your electric car failures.

My experiences with the unreliability of charging match plenty of other people's experiences, as reported here, on Plugshare and in other venues. And no, L1 charging wouldn't work given where I wanted to go and the lack of electricity (never mind a receptacle) at those sites. Unless, that is, I was taking the trip solely for the purpose of spending several days hanging around somewhere I had no desire to be, for no other reason than that I had to in order for the car to charge enough so I could drive home. Maybe you consider that recreation; I don't, and I don't know anyone else who does.

How is accurately reporting my experiences, both good and bad, talking up electric car failures? Should I lie and only report the good? Is that what you do?

Also, as I've pointed out to you several times already, since these days I only drive my car intermittently at week or longer intervals and don't need to drive locally on a daily basis, L1 would work for me now given that there are local DCFCs I could top up in a hurry if I needed to. So stop making claims about my situation which you know to be inaccurate.

That being said, it's still not convenient L1, requiring an extension cord run out a door or window, which isn't an option during the heating months. Also, as two of the stations are EA and I failed to activate any of the chargers at one of them on that Bolt trip, I'm just assuming[/b] things have improved since then, but without any direct evidence.

Our local electricity rates are also a lot higher than yours - for an example see: viewtopic.php?p=610409#p610409

I think my rates are slightly less than his as we're in different service areas, but as utilities are included for me I haven't had to pay a utility bill myself for a couple of decades so can't say for sure. No doubt my landlord would raise my rent if I were charging a lot - as it is, the main house and I combined only use about 5 kWh/day in winter.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:03 am
GRA wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:07 pm Oh, and except for the free L2 I paid a higher price per mile than I would buying gas for my not all that fuel-efficient (27 mpg EPA HWY, 28-30 typical real-world) ICE. Compared to a ca. 50 mpg. HEV I paid a much higher price per mile. Even now, when we have the highest gas prices in the country (my closest station, neither the most or least expensive in town, is $4.70/gallon), a 50 mpg HEV would cost less to fuel.
Notice that less than 10% of charging is public, and most home charging is far cheaper. The total public plus home plus work charging bill is usually far less than gasoline.
Which is true, as we've discussed before, if you can charge at home, and you have low electricity rates. If you need to expand beyond the % of people who can charge at home, then you have to pay public charging rates. See my immediately preceding post for an example of bay area home electric rates.
WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:03 am Not to mention the air pollution. Not to mention the greenhouse gases. These are externality costs which fair accounting would include.

Partly for those reasons, California has the highest fuel taxes and thus fuel prices in the country.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:10 am
GRA wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:07 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:38 pm As for the cars, the owners seem to be divided between loving them and counting the days until the lease is over and they can get rid of the damn thing. Many owners seem in both camps, often at the same time.

Used FCEVs are dirt cheap.

You can see the same split among BEV owners. I've occasionally talked to FCEV owners at the H2 station I sometimes pass by. Being at the bleeding edge of any new tech has costs, and you need to be willing to accept those or you're going to be very unhappy.
Unlike a FCEV, an electric car can be sold as used at a reasonable price. With the current market, you can even make a profit on one. So you don't need to wait for the end of the lease.

Notice again how GRA tries to cast shade on electric cars at every turn. A skilled propagandist.

Again, how is accurately reporting both pro and con shading? By that standard I've cast far more shade on various ICEs over the decades.

As to being able to sell an electric car used at a reasonable price, depends on the definition of reasonable, now doesn't it? Given the dearth of all cars at the moment it's certainly a seller's market, so much so that SCE just quadrupled their subsidy for the purchase of used EVs from $1k to $4k: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic. ... 36#p614236
Income-qualified residential customers can receive $4,000 to lease or purchase an electric car.
At least it's supposed to be limited to lower-income households., However, as they're allowing these supposedly lower-income households to use the subsidy for up to 3 cars, I've also got to wonder just what the income limits are.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:41 pm
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:45 pm
WetEV wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:38 am

Economics often has the last word. See, for example, the UK coal mining business. Politics kept the government subsidizing mines long after the economics of mining for coal in the UK made little sense.

Uh huh, and all of the current AFV techs still require subsidies. My view is that we should remove the direct to consumer ones, and see which win out based on economics.
EVs sell in some parts of the world with no subsidies. There is no market for hydrogen cars without substantial subsidies. Like $15,000 in free fuel.

There's obviously little market for BEVs here (except at the "who cares what it costs" end of the market) sans subsidies, which is why the house version of 'BBB' wants to increase the amount to $10k or $12.5k while removing the 200k vehicles/manufacturer limit. That will undoubtedly get watered down, but no one is suggesting that we can remove the $7.5k tax credit plus all state and local subsidies and see major growth in PEVs as of yet.

As for used EVs, see my immediately preceding post for the SCE's decision to quadruple the subsidy for buying used BEVs.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
WetEV
Posts: 4822
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Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:44 pm
WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:49 am
GRA wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:07 pm It's not, now. OTOH, it's exactly like public charging stations. On my Bolt trip last year I went a combined 3 for 11 in successful charges: 1 for 8 at EA stations (0 for 4 using my phone, 1 for 4 using the credit card I'd pre-registered with them exactly for this possibility) and 2 for 3 at Chargepoint stations using their membership card (Got it around 2013, but had never used it until last year). The failure at one EA station imposed an 8.5 hour delay on my trip, as I had to sit at an L2 overnight in the next town south.
Nice subject change. You got great propaganda skills.

I've had far more public charges, and fewer failures. So why was your trip so bad? Did you plan it to be bad??
How is discussing the unreliability of charging as well as that of H2 stations a change of subject? Both are immature infrastructures that lack coverage, density, redundancy and reliability, which is why we need websites like Plugshare and the CAFCP's station status one for now.
Ah yes, roses are both red and have an odor, as do red herrings. Comparing the two isn't usually very meaningful.

Public charging isn't as necessary to a driver as H2 stations are. Most charging is at home or at work. All H2 fueling requires a trip to the H2 station.

Public charging is far more reliable than H2 stations are. Sure, there are issues with public charging, you have had more issues on one trip than I've had with 1.5GWh of public charging. Only about half of the H2 stations are up at any given time, and the vast majority of public charging is working. Sure, not quite as good as gas pumps.

Public charging is far more common than H2 stations are.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red (Sold)
2019 eTron Blue
WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:44 pm My experiences with the unreliability of charging match plenty of other people's experiences, as reported here, on Plugshare and in other venues.
The plural of anecdote is not data.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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2014 Leaf SL Red (Sold)
2019 eTron Blue
WetEV
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Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:46 pm
WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:10 am Notice again how GRA tries to cast shade on electric cars at every turn. A skilled propagandist.
Again, how is accurately reporting both pro and con shading?
If you did, it might be useful.

If wishes were fishes...
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red (Sold)
2019 eTron Blue
WetEV
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

GRA wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:47 pm
WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:41 pm
GRA wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:45 pm Uh huh, and all of the current AFV techs still require subsidies. My view is that we should remove the direct to consumer ones, and see which win out based on economics.
EVs sell in some parts of the world with no subsidies. There is no market for hydrogen cars without substantial subsidies. Like $15,000 in free fuel.
There's obviously little market for BEVs here (except at the "who cares what it costs" end of the market) sans subsidies,
There is a market for BEVs with no subsidies. Waiting lines, as well. I was looking at an Audi electric, less than 10% above average new car price, and asked how long of wait? Answer was about August 2022. That's about 9 months.

Unlike Hydrogen fuel cell cars, which need $15,000 in free fuel and more just to sell for MSRP. In the craziest auto market in memory. Average new car is selling for 2% over MSRP, and at over $46,000. Which is about exactly what a Tesla Model 3 sells for... if you can wait until June 2022

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/ford-is ... s-ceo.html
“Our [production] capacity is about half of what the demand is,” Farley said an in interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Mad Money.”
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red (Sold)
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GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:50 am
GRA wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:44 pm
WetEV wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:49 am

Nice subject change. You got great propaganda skills.

I've had far more public charges, and fewer failures. So why was your trip so bad? Did you plan it to be bad??
How is discussing the unreliability of charging as well as that of H2 stations a change of subject? Both are immature infrastructures that lack coverage, density, redundancy and reliability, which is why we need websites like Plugshare and the CAFCP's station status one for now.
Ah yes, roses are both red and have an odor, as do red herrings. Comparing the two isn't usually very meaningful.

Public charging isn't as necessary to a driver as H2 stations are. Most charging is at home or at work. All H2 fueling requires a trip to the H2 station.

It does now, that's the current state of the infrastructure, but it doesn't have to be the case. As one example (IIRR I've posted articles with links to other such systems, which IIRC are primarily being deployed in Japan at the moment): https://www.hydrogencarsnow.com/index.p ... -stations/ Obviously, we're still at the dem/val or very early commercialization phase with these.

But since we're talking about trip charging beyond range from home, public charging is absolutely crucial, and in rural areas it's nowhere near numerous or reliable enough.

WetEV wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:50 am Public charging is far more reliable than H2 stations are. Sure, there are issues with public charging, you have had more issues on one trip than I've had with 1.5GWh of public charging.
Yet I'm hardly alone having 'issues'. As an example, there are 8 FC stations along or near U.S. 395, from Bridgeport down to Inyokern. Here's the EV Connect at Inyokern Airport, as reported by Paul Gipe on Plugshare on one of his recent trips:
Wouldn't read my phone, RFID card, or credit card. Had to go to Brady's CP. It worked.


Note that there are two different sites in/around Inyokern with one more under construction, by far the greatest density along 395, and most of the sites only have a single FC. Things are much worse up around Yosemite, where there's only a single EA site 25 miles north of the 120/395 junction (120 is the direct route through Yosemite). That's one of the EA sites I couldn't charge at, and the one which forced me to spend a night sleeping (illegally) in a public park in Lee Vining while I charged L2. The next nearest FC site along 395 is 90 miles to the south, in Bishop. There are now two sites there, one EA and one Caltrans, so at least minimal redundancy. If the EA site won't work there's only a single FC at the Caltrans one, so be prepared to get in line.

395 is pretty typical of charging facilities off-interstate on road trips.


WetEV wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:50 am Only about half of the H2 stations are up at any given time, and the vast majority of public charging is working. Sure, not quite as good as gas pumps.

Public charging is far more common than H2 stations are.

'Not quite as good' is a vast understatement. Yes public charging is more common, yet still totally inadequate in the places I go to, not to mention in major urban areas with lots of people who can't charge at home. Of course, you also don't need the same number of H2 stations, because you can go further between fills, and each fill takes less time. Much of the unreliability of H2 stations is from the 1st gen. ones, and most of the rest is due to lack of fuel delivery, not problems with the stations themselves. Both are solvable, just as problems with charging station reliability will be. But neither is where they need to be.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.
GRA
Posts: 13717
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

WetEV wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:42 pm
GRA wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:44 pm My experiences with the unreliability of charging match plenty of other people's experiences, as reported here, on Plugshare and in other venues.
The plural of anecdote is not data.

When I check to see if stations along a route on a trip I'm planning to take are reported working, and one or more critical ones aren't or have shown a history of unreliability, those anecdotes inform my planning. Do you just put your faith in whatever supernatural being you may believe in?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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