WetEV wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:38 pm
GRA wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:16 pm
a need to replace and provide charging for 270 million cars
How far in the future?
Electric car sales are doubling every 2-3 years, and will take a about a decade to be the majority of cars sold. Add about another decade to get to half of the cars on the road. Maybe a decade or even two before almost all cars are electric. Depending on the future of mass transportation, not clear to me at least that there will every be 270 million electric cars.
The issue isn't building charging right now for all the cars being electric 40 years from now, it is building more charging as more cars are on the road.
Consider that we sell an average of say 17 million LDVs in the U.S. each year. Last year 252,548 BEVs were sold in the U.S., so 500k L2s (over a period of several years) covers less than 2 years of sales if there's absolutely no increase, and we expect and need to see a big increase. If we take 130 million as the number of U.S. households in 2020 (estimated to be 132 million at end of 2021) and assume per the Plug-in America survey that 56% of them can charge at home (which probably means L1 without electrical work), that's 72.8 million, leaving 57.2 million who can't charge and who most need charging given where they're likely to live, and the higher pollution levels they face. As I wrote, 500k, if L2, is a drop in the bucket, given that each L2 is occupied for 8+ hours to fully charge a BEV (we'll assume going forward that all future BEV sales will have 1 week's range in routine use, and I'm ignoring PHEV usage).
OTOH, 500k QCs get's us up in the same order of magnitude as the number of gas pumps. Of course, it takes much longer to charge than it does to fill a tank, but at least there's room for significant expansion of numbers much more quickly than the decades before we can possibly retrofit every existing MUD and curbside space with L2. We have some idea of what curbside spaces cost, as Quebec just decided to subsidize 4500 dual curbside EVSEs:
https://insideevs.com/news/511091/quebe ... ts-coming/
"To support this important initiative, a grant program is being offered exclusively to municipalities, through which Hydro-Québec is providing financial assistance of up to $12,000 [CDN, about $9,928 U.S.) per standard charging station.
Charging stations must meet one of the following charging needs:
Overnight charging in neighborhoods where electric vehicle owners do not have access to private outdoor outlets
Daytime charging downtown and near shops
In addition, the municipality must allow access to the curbside station 24 hours a day, 365 days a year and offer free parking in front of the curbside station from 9 p.m. to 7 a.m."
Note that they only need to complete by 2028. We don't know if that covers the entire cost of the station; almost certainly not given the "financial assistance" statement, but let's assume that it does. As I've previously mentioned, the city of San Francisco alone has something over 200k curbside parking spaces, but let's call it 200k to make the math easy, and round the cost per EVSE up to $5,000 for the same reason (x2 per station = $10k). So, to cover every curbside parking space in San Francisco, that's $1 billion in current-year dollars. As San Francisco's annual budget for this (Covid) fiscal year is $13.7 billion, and is forecast to be $12.6 billion next fiscal year, as you can see we're talking an extremely hefty chunk of change even spread over a period of years, and that's for one wealthy
U.S. city (with a very high take rate of PEVs).