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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Fri May 14, 2021 6:56 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu May 13, 2021 9:03 pm
There isn't any point in me continuing to write.

We agree on something, as this has long since devolved into endless repetitions of the same points.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 17, 2021 11:32 pm

Got together with a friend I hadn't seen since before Covid to watch the Warriors game Sunday. He's had two Fusion Energis (not at the same time), and I asked if he was still driving one. No, he showed me his latest, an X5 PHEV. Said he leased it last July and just used up his first tank of gas, owing mainly to a trip to Pacific Grove (Monterey Peninsula) and back, about 250 miles round trip. The X5 gets 31 mile's AER EPA combined, and he does lots of local driving plus the occasional trip, so he's an ideal candidate for a PHEV.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 18, 2021 6:38 am

PHEVs are a more expensive technology.

One or both of the following statements is true, depending on the relative cost of ICE and batteries. A PHEV is:

More expensive than ICE, as needs a battery, inverter and electric motor. (Subsidies are higher on a percentage basis)

More expensive than BEV, as needs gasoline engine, transmission and such. More maintenance. And it pollutes.

So why would anyone want own one?


Infrastructure.

In 2010, GM drove a Volt across the USA. This would have been difficult and much slower for an EV at that time. There was almost no public charging.

The same route would be easy for many EVs today. Yes, a little slower. But not much. Not all routes would be, however.

Look forward to the 12 year or so life of a car bought today. Twelve years from now the following is likely:

As BEVs will be cheaper and nicer than both PHEVs and ICEs, BEVs will be the majority of cars sold.

A DCQC station with low utilization can't hope be profitable due to fixed costs including demand charges. As the number of EVs on the road increases, the utilization increases. As the utilization of DCQC stations improve, they become profitable. Major routes, big cities first, then spreading out.

The question then is "will PHEVs continue"?


Yes, for some in the past a PHEV is a was better choice, assuming they could live in the limitations of the few choices. As such, it was a worthwhile transitional technology then, and for some even now. That's not the question, please stay on topic.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 18, 2021 12:02 pm

PHEVs are going to remain, in uses that require expenditures of much larger amounts of energy than typical driving, until/unless someone develops and builds and sells a battery with 20X the energy density - and at near the same cost - as present batteries.
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 18, 2021 2:40 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 12:02 pm
PHEVs are going to remain, in uses that require expenditures of much larger amounts of energy than typical driving, until/unless someone develops and builds and sells a battery with 20X the energy density - and at near the same cost - as present batteries.
LEAF Plus has an EPA range of 226 miles. With 20x the energy density, that would give a range of 4,520 miles. NYC to LA is only 2,789 miles.

Range would be less at higher speeds, or in bad weather.

Perhaps you might explain what the use case is?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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coleafrado2
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 18, 2021 2:56 pm

IMO plugin hybrids will only be competitive while lithium-ion is above $50/kWh and below 300 Wh/kg. After that point, who would want to drive a PHEV when a BEV with 400 miles of range and 15-minute charging is available for the same price.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 18, 2021 3:09 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 2:40 pm
LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 12:02 pm
PHEVs are going to remain, in uses that require expenditures of much larger amounts of energy than typical driving, until/unless someone develops and builds and sells a battery with 20X the energy density - and at near the same cost - as present batteries.
LEAF Plus has an EPA range of 226 miles. With 20x the energy density, that would give a range of 4,520 miles. NYC to LA is only 2,789 miles.

Range would be less at higher speeds, or in bad weather.

Perhaps you might explain what the use case is?
Trucks carrying or towing heavy loads.
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 18, 2021 4:27 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 3:09 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 2:40 pm
LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 12:02 pm
PHEVs are going to remain, in uses that require expenditures of much larger amounts of energy than typical driving, until/unless someone develops and builds and sells a battery with 20X the energy density - and at near the same cost - as present batteries.
LEAF Plus has an EPA range of 226 miles. With 20x the energy density, that would give a range of 4,520 miles. NYC to LA is only 2,789 miles.

Range would be less at higher speeds, or in bad weather.

Perhaps you might explain what the use case is?
Trucks carrying or towing heavy loads.
Still don't see the 20x need. Could you please expand? Or give a reference?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 18, 2021 6:55 pm

No, I'm basing it on the idea that you don't equip a BE full-sized truck with just enough capacity to get a large job done the first year, in Summer, with a full charge. If you want to tear my "20 X" to bits like a terrier, then have at it! I'm not GRA, and I won't argue endlessly with you over arcana like this.
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2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 2 lithium E-bicycles.
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 19, 2021 6:55 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 6:55 pm
No, I'm basing it on the idea that you don't equip a BE full-sized truck with just enough capacity to get a large job done the first year, in Summer, with a full charge. If you want to tear my "20 X" to bits like a terrier, then have at it! I'm not GRA, and I won't argue endlessly with you over arcana like this.
I'm not GRA. You can have the last word.

PHEV works for cars, as the variability of trip distances is fairly high. Trucks tend to have more predictable daily distances, and would more likely be either BEV for local deliveries, even if not much improvement in energy density, and long distances would either need fairly frequent recharging stops or bio/synthetic fueled green ICE or hydrogen or recharging on the go or about 4x energy density cheap batteries or something I can't even guess at. I'll guess that most local deliveries are BEVs before much attention is paid to long distance trucking.

Perhaps local air pollution zones might provide a reason? Green fueled ICE truck needs to switch to battery while driving through a city, and then back to ICE after leaving?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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