jlsoaz
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:06 am

alozzy wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:24 pm
LeftieBiker wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:59 pm
The biggest problem with using PHEVs to get carbon out of the system is that it keeps a very big, booted foot in the door for ICE powertrains. Maybe hydrogen-burning PHEVs will arise to replace the gasoline-fueled ones, but since hydrogen is just a way to store energy (electricity in the best case), it seems more like ethanol - a way to avoid needed progress, rather than a way to implement it.
Couldn't agree more, this is why almost all ICE manufacturers have offered hybrids over recent years.

A revenue neutral carbon tax on gasoline, with revenues going towards solar/wind power projects, would accelerate the reduction of carbon emissions. With respect to EV subsidies, I think those could be reduced/eliminated - particularly for those who can afford an EV. With battery prices continuing to drop and newer, long range EVs with lots of tech, there should be plenty of moderately well off and rich people who will opt for an EV. Tesla has made EVs cool, which definitely helps the overall EV market.

Governments could still offer people an EV credit towards purchasing a new or used EV, but make that EV credit conditional on first scrapping an old ICE (which must be sold off for parts, or crushed). That would give lower income people an incentive to purchase an older LEAF, for instance.
I agree with a decent portion of this thinking. With PHEVs only presently working with available high carbon fuels, and true zero-carbon drop-in replacement affordable widely-distributed fuels not being ready for market, we seem to be headed toward BEV only. IMO things would be best clarified by ending the free ride that the polluters are getting (they do not pay for the damages they cause) and a good way to do this would be some form of tax on the increasingly deadly polluting activity. The "revenue neutral" wording you use, as to combining some taxes with subsidies toward perceived ameliorative (to the pollution damages) technologies and practices, seems like possibly a good way to conceptualize this. But what also needs understanding, IMO, is the impact of such taxes. Ironically, if and as they are instituted, since they would finally provide the price-signals, economy-wide, as to the damages, and since such price signals might send consumers moving in unexpected directions as they finally need to think deeper and act on the clarified evidence of the society-wide pollution problem, the price signals would provide incentive for phase-out of high-ghg-pollution-fuels, but at the same time might open the door more widely not only to ultra-lower-polluting BEVS, but also, perhaps, to ultra-low-polluting net-zero-carbon fuels. If they did open this door, ironically it might help open the door to keeping more ICVs and PHEVs on the table.

I'd talk more about H2 and FCV, especially since H2 can be produced as a net-zero-carbon fuel, and I like FCV conversion efficiencies that are superior to the usual combustion engines, but I have seen virtually no hard-hitting attempt to analyze whether it would be damaging (in some other less-discussed unanticipated way) to split off that many hydrogen atoms and create some unprecedented global hydrogen economy. Maybe it would not be damaging, but until improved precautionary principles are brought into practice, I am wary.
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:18 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:46 am
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:38 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:33 pm
Everybody breathes. Cleaner air benefits everyone.
The issue is whether subsidising the well-off is the most cost-effective way to achieve cleaner air.
Good question. If you consider it, you might realize that the answer depends on details that change with time.

The times changed years ago, the incentives, even if they were ever justified in their present form (I don't believe they were), mostly haven't.

In 2010-2013 or so it might have been justifiable to subsidise LEAF/Volt or similar, i.e. a price cap of no more than $45k with an income cap around the median U.S. level or a bit more, both reducing over time. It was never justifiable to be subsidising Fisker Karmas, Model Ss or similar, with no income caps at all.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 8:48 am

GRA wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:18 pm
The times changed years ago, the incentives, even if they were ever justified in their present form (I don't believe they were), mostly haven't.

In 2010-2013 or so it might have been justifiable to subsidise LEAF/Volt or similar, i.e. a price cap of no more than $45k with an income cap around the median U.S. level or a bit more, both reducing over time. It was never justifiable to be subsidising Fisker Karmas, Model Ss or similar, with no income caps at all.
So incentives reserved only for those unlikely to buy electric cars.

I'm sure that would have worked.

Right.
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SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 12:41 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:18 pm
In 2010-2013 or so it might have been justifiable to subsidise LEAF/Volt or similar, i.e. a price cap of no more than $45k with an income cap around the median U.S. level or a bit more, both reducing over time. It was never justifiable to be subsidising Fisker Karmas, Model Ss or similar, with no income caps at all.
Because the well-off should NEVER drive an EV. it is obscene. :roll:
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 12:49 pm

GRA has a point. There must be another way to encourage the affluent to buy EVs, without essentially giving them money that would otherwise have gotten someone with less income into one. I think that things like free HOV access and other convenience-related perks might have worked, and might still work.
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 7:09 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 8:48 am
GRA wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:18 pm
The times changed years ago, the incentives, even if they were ever justified in their present form (I don't believe they were), mostly haven't.

In 2010-2013 or so it might have been justifiable to subsidise LEAF/Volt or similar, i.e. a price cap of no more than $45k with an income cap around the median U.S. level or a bit more, both reducing over time. It was never justifiable to be subsidising Fisker Karmas, Model Ss or similar, with no income caps at all.
So incentives reserved only for those unlikely to buy electric cars.

I'm sure that would have worked.

Right.

Incentives for more mass-market consumers who would buy them, but need a little help to afford them. Unlike the case with the well-off, who can buy cars based on what's currently fashionable regardless of expense. There've been fads for Hummers, and remember all the Hollywood celebs vying to get the first New Beetle? These are not people who should be receiving handouts of tax money.

I'm against all direct to consumer subsidies, but if you're going to have them they should at least be targeted to people who actually need them. California has gone some way down this path by giving an increased subsidy to those with lower incomes, the problem is that they continue to give subsidies to those at much higher income levels, for more expensive cars.

This is money that would be far better spent incentivising the sale of more moderately priced cars to people with more moderate incomes, helping to drive the cost of those cars down (especially when combined with a regularly reducing price cap). There will always be a small market at the high end, for people buying cars primarily for prestige or image.
Last edited by GRA on Sat May 01, 2021 7:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 7:11 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 12:41 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:18 pm
In 2010-2013 or so it might have been justifiable to subsidise LEAF/Volt or similar, i.e. a price cap of no more than $45k with an income cap around the median U.S. level or a bit more, both reducing over time. It was never justifiable to be subsidising Fisker Karmas, Model Ss or similar, with no income caps at all.
Because the well-off should NEVER drive an EV. it is obscene. :roll:

The well-off can afford to pay full freight, and will do so to have something that most people can't afford.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 7:37 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 12:49 pm
GRA has a point. There must be another way to encourage the affluent to buy EVs, without essentially giving them money that would otherwise have gotten someone with less income into one. I think that things like free HOV access and other convenience-related perks might have worked, and might still work.

Indeed. The HOT lanes formerly referred to as "Lexus Lanes" are often called "Tesla Lanes" now, and any perusal of the SO cars using them and HOV lanes shows a high % are Teslas. In fact, that's why California had to change the HOV stickers to a max. of 4 years, because the lanes were so clogged with SO vehicles they couldn't meet the federal avg. speed standard.

The well-off's time is worth more to them than to someone making a lot less, so a speedier commute is well worth an extra $7,500.

To be clear, I'm not a fan of allowing any SO vehicle into an HOV lane, as the benefit accrues to the individual rather than society - after all, a ZEV has its greatest efficiency and pollution advantage compared to a fossil-fueled ICE in bumper-to-bumper stop-and-go traffic, not in steady cruising. But if you are going to allow them, then access should be at reduced cost rather than free, because while they aren't emitting, they are adding to congestion in the HOV lane and on surface streets which makes the car poolers and bus riders trips that much slower. Same goes for congestion/ULEV zones.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 7:42 pm

But if you are going to allow them, then access should be at reduced cost rather than free, because while they aren't emitting, they are adding to congestion in the HOV lane and on surface streets which makes the car poolers and bus riders trios that much slower.
Remember, though, that these are the people whose time means everything, and to whom money means little or nothing. I don't see a modest fee keeping them out of the HOV lanes when they are alone.
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 01, 2021 8:50 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 12:49 pm
GRA has a point. There must be another way to encourage the affluent to buy EVs, without essentially giving them money that would otherwise have gotten someone with less income into one. I think that things like free HOV access and other convenience-related perks might have worked, and might still work.
California and Norway did perks like that.

The US Federal government can't. States set those sorts of rules.

HOV access only works as long as the number of EVs is fairly small. After that, the HOV lanes are overcrowded and not much faster than the regular lanes.

GRA has other points as well. One is that things will need to change. The EV subsidy will need to be phased out and hopeful be replaced with a carbon/pollution tax on fuels. When? Sometime before BEVs/PHEVs are the majority of new cars, perhaps 10 years.
WetEV
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