GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:23 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:56 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:51 pm

Subsidies are more efficient when alternatives are a tiny fraction of the market. This will change.
High fuel taxes seem to be working quite well in Europe, an area where the take rate is higher than the U.S. Are you suggesting that European countries should eliminate them, and only rely on subsidies?
Based on two months of registrations, the take rate is higher.

But is that real world usage actually higher?

PHEV miles are only 37% electric worldwide.

Uh huh, and what did that ICCT report recommend to change that?
The results of the joint study, released by German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the International Council on Clean Transportation, suggest that incentives to promote a higher share of electric driving would increase the potential for plug-in hybrid vehicles to reduce emissions.
Gee, that sounds familiar. ;)

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:56 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:51 pm


Not just 0-60 times, BEVs are smoother and more responsive. Real PHEVs, unlike those "you could design" tend to have small electric motors as well as small batteries. The exceptions are the Volt and the I3 with REx. GM killed the Volt, and BMW has said REx has no future.
I don't recall people complaining that the Volt, a semi "mass-market" PHEV, was sluggish when in hold mode.
Maximum electric thrust is still 149 horsepower and a rollicking 294 pound-feet of torque, and Chevy's claimed 0-60 mph acceleration time remains pegged at 8.4 seconds. Our 2016 Chevy Volt long-termer beat that mark with a 7.5-second performance at our test track, and this 2019 example feels like it will do the same.
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/first- ... drive.html

For comparison, my Forester does 0-60 in 9.6 seconds, which is entirely adequate - faster is fun, but hardly necessary. Many of the current 200+ mile BEVs have around 200 HP motors, but then so do some comparable PHEVs which can drive them solely off the battery. Again, you can design a PHEV for whatever power split you choose. My personal desire is for an ICE to maintain freeway cruising speed, with the battery and motor providing adequate accel (ca. 8-10 sec. 0-60) alone or boost to the ICE for passing. Others have different priorities.
0-60 isn't all there is to smoother and more responsive. The Volt is closer to a BEV than a hybrid, as is the i3 with REX. Two discontinued models suggest your personal desire isn't "mass market".
The Volt wasn't a CUV, when they've been the most popular type here for the past what, 6-8 years?

The i3 Rex was a compliance car designed to meet a California reg. that BMW lobbied to establish, one which ludicrously limited its fossil fuel range while providing an excessive AER for most people. Not to mention being too expensive, the suicide doors etc. It should have had a smaller battery and a fuel tank at least twice and preferably four times as big, and just been treated as a regular PHEV.

Do you think the RAV4 Prime will have limited sales, once they produce enough of them? As it is dealers are slapping $5-10k Adams on them because the demand far exceeds the current supply.

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:56 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:51 pm
The focus on "mass market". The real market is a distribution, not just a "mass market".

New technologies rarely start at the center of the market. Instead, they start at an edge. Then grow.

Why do you keep insisting that EVs start with "the mass market"?
Please point to anywhere I've "insisted" (there's you using that word again) that EVs "start" with the mass market. What I have said is that we're a decade into mass production of PEVs and we shouldn't be helping the wealthy buy expensive toys, but should instead concentrate on getting as much of a transportation GHG reduction we can as soon as we can, which requires a much larger % of PEVs being sold. That can only be accomplished by reducing their prices and reducing or eliminating as many practical roadblocks as possible. Batteries and charging infrastructure aren't there yet, so that leaves HEVs and PHEVs as the lowest common denominator. I don't believe we can afford to wait to 2030 to do so. You apparently do.
Time is why everything doesn't happen at once. A decade of doubling every 2.5 years has us at about 2% market share now, the next decade will be more interesting.

Even if every car sold today was a BEV, the fleet would still be over half ICE in 2030.

So would PHEVs do better? As only 37% of miles are electric, less in Europe with high gas taxes, would that really work better?
See previous comments. I think we needed to be at ca. 5% PEVs about 3 years ago to have any chance of keeping AGCC down to 1.5 deg. C., and the fight now is to try and limit it to only 2 deg. C The only way to accomplish a rapid rise in PEV sales is to get the price down: we need Model Ts, not Pierce Arrows, Duesenbergs and Packards.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:47 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:16 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:04 am


Electric cars are not exactly the same as gas cars.

Public charging is not exactly the same thing as gasoline retailing.

Forcing square pegs into round holes isn't often useful.

GRA is focused on trying to recreate the gasoline economy with electric (or hydrogen) cars. The hole is round. The peg is square.

Electric cars with distributed fueling are just nicer. Of course, that only works for 98% (or something like that) of driving. With the exception of the few times when you want to make a long trip, then some sort of centralized fueling is needed. The total package needs to be cost competitive, not the exception. Twice or even four times the price for 2% of the time and half the price for 98% of the time is a good deal. Focusing on the exception is ignoring most of the issue. I pay about $1 per gallon equivalent. What is your corner gas station?

Electric cars make the most sense when they can be L1/L2 charged at home or work. They don't fit nicely into centralized fueling. Round hole. Square peg.
In 50 to 100 years, when everyone has the ability to charge at home or work, then the need for central charging will be limited. Which doesn't help us for the next 20-30 years, when the need to reduce GHGs is most critical. Of course, maybe we'll see a large scale shift to subscription transportation with or without AVs, or urban redesign, or a large increase in mass transit use, to reduce the number of privately owned cars and the need to provide convenient charging for all of them. Failing that, we're going to need QCs and fast L2s away from home/work just for routine charging.
It will take on the order of 20 years for old cars to mostly get off the roads. It would take something like 10 to 15 years for enough production of alternative vehicles if BEVs, more for hydrogen, less for PHEVs. So most of the reduction will be beyond 20-30 years. As for GHG reduction, transportation isn't the largest problem by "green premium". A mostly negative cost green premium means BEVs will happen, just not as fast as you want. Other GHG problems are more expensive, or even technically unsolved. Time period is a different subject.

As I've said, we're well behind where I believe we need to be in the transition, and we need to incentivize a more rapid reduction at the lowest cost. Oh, as I've pointed out, transport is the largest component of GHGs here, so it has to be dealt with. The solutions are also further along than some other areas, although many of them e.g. steel, cement and fertilizers are starting to make progress.

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:56 am
Convenient charging for everyone needs to be built faster with PHEVs. That is, unless just driven like gassers. Which is what 63% of the miles are today.

Hydrogen can't be convenient, it is centralized fueling.

Public L2 away from home unless at work or other place you would normally be for hours, is almost worthless except as an emergency fallback. Live on that for a while, and then you will stop suggesting it. Even public L3 isn't very great. Centralized fueling of any sort is a poor solution compared with home charging.
I'm not suggesting that away from home/work public L2 replaces the need for QCs for BEVs who can't charge at thos two places; after all, I had to spend 8.5 hours charging at a public L2 last October when I was unable to activate the EA QC I'd intended to use, and I'd previously found out how limiting home L1 was for short range BEVs without any other options more than two decades ago, when driving a Think Citi. As someone else pointed out recently, what fairly high power public L2 buys BEV owners who can't charge at home is an extension of the time between needing to QC, say while they're having dinner or attending the theater. Since L2 should be cheaper than a QC, there's also that advantage.

Then there's the advantage for PHEVs, essentially doubling their AER for that day. A Niro PHEV or a Prius Prime can get me to San Francisco to see a show on the battery; let me L2 for 1-2 hours and I can get back the same way. As 30-32A OBCs have become the norm, with more and more PEVs going to 40 or 48A, 1 hour of charging buys most people a day's range.

As for what is or isn't convenient, to some extent that's in the eye of the beholder. Spending 5 minutes to fuel every week or so, vs. plugging and unplugging every day strikes me as at most a wash. For a significant gain in convenience I'd probably want an inductive charging pad that I simply parked over, accepting the slight loss in efficiency.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

alozzy
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:23 pm

All tax credits for PHEVs and HEVs should be discontinued immediately.

Next, federal and state governments should offer an even larger tax incentive for BEVs and EVSE installations.

Finally, levy a carbon tax on all sales of new ICE vehicles, unless there is no equivalent EV (ie heavy duty trucks used for business). Make it a neutral tax, with all proceeds funding wind, solar, and other "green" generation projects.

https://youtu.be/MaweqwsN62k
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:28 am

The Europeans are talking about scuttling the PHEV loophole. They are catching on to the green-washing.

It is nice to see them figuring things out quicker this time than it took them for diesel.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:03 am

GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:47 pm


Then there's the advantage for PHEVs, essentially doubling their AER for that day. A Niro PHEV or a Prius Prime can get me to San Francisco to see a show on the battery; let me L2 for 1-2 hours and I can get back the same way. As 30-32A OBCs have become the norm, with more and more PEVs going to 40 or 48A, 1 hour of charging buys most people a day's range.
I have not found this to be the case, at least in PHEVs where 16a is the norm and 32a charging is mostly a dream :(
Take for instance my (on order) Rav4 prime which comes with a measly 16a charger and there is not an option to upgrade to the larger 32a unless one purchases the top of the line and then adds a top of the line package on top of that adding almost $10k, I believe the Prius Prime is similar although with it's measly battery I can kind of see it, but not with the RAV4's relatively large battery, I'd gladly pay a $500-$1000 premium to get double the charge speed but it's not an option. The same goes for probably the most common PHEV on the road, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, 16a L2 not to mention the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV which at last look(granted it's been a while) was limited to 16a L2. Now things are different for EVs where higher charging current may be available or even standard but not PHEVs which IMO is a shame. If I'm shopping at a local store that has a free L2 EVSE and almost all are 32a, why would I want to leave 1/2 the charge and not take full advantage of all that's offered......
I would really like to know which PHEVs come with a 40 or 48a L2 charger, I sure haven't ran into one.....
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:34 am

GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:23 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:56 am
Based on two months of registrations, the take rate is higher.
But is that real world usage actually higher?
PHEV miles are only 37% electric worldwide.
Uh huh, and what did that ICCT report recommend to change that?
The results of the joint study, released by German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the International Council on Clean Transportation, suggest that incentives to promote a higher share of electric driving would increase the potential for plug-in hybrid vehicles to reduce emissions.
Gee, that sounds familiar. ;)
Two months of registrations is more like a blip than a trend.

And exactly how do you bell the cat?

GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:23 pm
Do you think the RAV4 Prime will have limited sales, once they produce enough of them? As it is dealers are slapping $5-10k Adams on them because the demand far exceeds the current supply.
Audi Q4 e-tron has a similar price, far better driving in electric mode, a nicer interior, none of that tinny engine sound and no weekly stop at the gas station.

From my point of view, why would I pick the RAV4? Oh, we know your point of view, but both you and I are not everyone.

So would PHEVs do better? As only 37% of miles are electric, less in Europe with high gas taxes, would that really work better?
GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:23 pm
See previous comments. I think we needed to be at ca. 5% PEVs about 3 years ago to have any chance of keeping AGCC down to 1.5 deg. C., and the fight now is to try and limit it to only 2 deg. C The only way to accomplish a rapid rise in PEV sales is to get the price down: we need Model Ts, not Pierce Arrows, Duesenbergs and Packards.
Personal transport isn't the hard problem.

The problem with "Model Ts" is that competing with horses is easier than competing with ICEs.
Last edited by WetEV on Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:08 pm

jjeff wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:03 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:47 pm


Then there's the advantage for PHEVs, essentially doubling their AER for that day. A Niro PHEV or a Prius Prime can get me to San Francisco to see a show on the battery; let me L2 for 1-2 hours and I can get back the same way. As 30-32A OBCs have become the norm, with more and more PEVs going to 40 or 48A, 1 hour of charging buys most people a day's range.
I have not found this to be the case, at least in PHEVs where 16a is the norm and 32a charging is mostly a dream :(
Take for instance my (on order) Rav4 prime which comes with a measly 16a charger and there is not an option to upgrade to the larger 32a unless one purchases the top of the line and then adds a top of the line package on top of that adding almost $10k, I believe the Prius Prime is similar although with it's measly battery I can kind of see it, but not with the RAV4's relatively large battery, I'd gladly pay a $500-$1000 premium to get double the charge speed but it's not an option. The same goes for probably the most common PHEV on the road, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, 16a L2 not to mention the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV which at last look(granted it's been a while) was limited to 16a L2. Now things are different for EVs where higher charging current may be available or even standard but not PHEVs which IMO is a shame. If I'm shopping at a local store that has a free L2 EVSE and almost all are 32a, why would I want to leave 1/2 the charge and not take full advantage of all that's offered......
I would really like to know which PHEVs come with a 40 or 48a L2 charger, I sure haven't ran into one.....
16Abfor a small battery PHEV like the Prius Prime or Niro is fine, as that's about a C/2 (usable) rate. I agree with you that PHEVs with bigger batteries would benefit from more powerful OBCs, especially without having to pay for a bunch of crap you don't want or need, which is one reason why I want a lower price cap to qualify for subsidies, if we're going to have them.

Off the top of my head, the only "mass-market" priced PHEV offered with a 32A OBC was the 2019 Volt.

Right now, AFAIK 40-48A OBCs are limited to 200+ mile BEVs, but then they're the cars that need them to get a full charge overnight. I confess to being somewhat surprised that GM went to 48 instead of 40A on the 2022 Bolt/EUV, but maybe they're just future proofing, figuring they'll need that for upcoming models with bigger batteries so they might as well benefit from economies of scale. I can speak from personal experience that 32A won't give you a full charge in 8 hours on a 2020 Bolt that starts at 10-15% SoC.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:28 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:34 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:23 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:56 am
Based on two months of registrations, the take rate is higher.
But is that real world usage actually higher?
PHEV miles are only 37% electric worldwide.
Uh huh, and what did that ICCT report recommend to change that?
The results of the joint study, released by German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the International Council on Clean Transportation, suggest that incentives to promote a higher share of electric driving would increase the potential for plug-in hybrid vehicles to reduce emissions.
Gee, that sounds familiar. ;)
Two months of registrations is more like a blip than a trend.

And exactly how do you bell the cat?
As I've written a couple of times, it's too soon to say if it's a trend yet. Meanwhile, since you brought up Mach-E sales as an example of how there's demand for BEVs but not (the right) PHEVs here:
Toyota RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid is still flying off dealer lots—faster than Mach-E
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... han-mach-e
. . .The RAV4 Prime was the quickest-selling new car in March, second only to the Chevrolet Corvette, according to iSeeCars analysis. It took an average 10.2 days to sell a RAV4 Prime last month, while transaction prices averaged $44,201 (compared to a $39,220 base price), according to the analysis. . . .

With the battery-supply issues that previously limited production sorted, Toyota said that from calendar year 2021 on, it's planning on 20,000 units annually for the United States, up from the 5,000 units allocated during 2020. But Toyota could perhaps sell even more. . . .

Now the question becomes, could Toyota sell many more RAV4 Primes than it's allocating for the U.S.? Based on what we see here, we think so.
Ya think? 20,000? Are they kidding? 50,000 would probably be a floor, with 100k possible, especially if they do some de-bundling of options (fat chance).

As for belling the cat, I've already suggested three methods of incentivizing electric miles driven.


WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:34 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:23 pm
Do you think the RAV4 Prime will have limited sales, once they produce enough of them? As it is dealers are slapping $5-10k Adams on them because the demand far exceeds the current supply.
Audi Q4 e-tron has a similar price, far better driving in electric mode, a nicer interior, none of that tinny engine sound and no weekly stop at the gas station.

From my point of view, why would I pick the RAV4? Oh, we know your point of view, but both you and I are not everyone.

So would PHEVs do better? As only 37% of miles are electric, less in Europe with high gas taxes, would that really work better?

See above.
My
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:34 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:23 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:56 am
See previous comments. I think we needed to be at ca. 5% PEVs about 3 years ago to have any chance of keeping AGCC down to 1.5 deg. C., and the fight now is to try and limit it to only 2 deg. C The only way to accomplish a rapid rise in PEV sales is to get the price down: we need Model Ts, not Pierce Arrows, Duesenbergs and Packards.
Personal transport isn't the hard problem.

The problem with "Model Ts" is that competing with horses is easier than competing with ICEs.
Only if you've got roads to drive them on, which mostly wasn't vthe case outside if cities when Model T sales first took off. It was their constantly decreasibg price plus reliability and capability that drove sales. We need lower-priced PEVs now, not later.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:50 am

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:28 pm
Toyota RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid is still flying off dealer lots—faster than Mach-E
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... han-mach-e
. . .The RAV4 Prime was the quickest-selling new car in March, second only to the Chevrolet Corvette, according to iSeeCars analysis. It took an average 10.2 days to sell a RAV4 Prime last month, while transaction prices averaged $44,201 (compared to a $39,220 base price), according to the analysis. . . .

With the battery-supply issues that previously limited production sorted, Toyota said that from calendar year 2021 on, it's planning on 20,000 units annually for the United States, up from the 5,000 units allocated during 2020. But Toyota could perhaps sell even more. . . .

Now the question becomes, could Toyota sell many more RAV4 Primes than it's allocating for the U.S.? Based on what we see here, we think so.
Great news. Seriously.

So what fraction of miles will be all electric?

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:28 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:34 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:23 pm
Do you think the RAV4 Prime will have limited sales, once they produce enough of them? As it is dealers are slapping $5-10k Adams on them because the demand far exceeds the current supply.
Audi Q4 e-tron has a similar price, far better driving in electric mode, a nicer interior, none of that tinny engine sound and no weekly stop at the gas station.

From my point of view, why would I pick the RAV4? Oh, we know your point of view, but both you and I are not everyone.

So would PHEVs do better? As only 37% of miles are electric, less in Europe with high gas taxes, would that really work better?
See above.
For what, exactly?

Sure, short term a more PHEVs with 37% EMs might be better than fewer BEVs (due to battery shortages), but long term that doesn't work.

More PHEVs cause more need for at home charging. You have spread lots of ah stuff around how hard this is, but to get more EMs at home charging is a requirement. Why is this a problem for BEVs, and not an acknowledged by GRA problem for PHEVs?

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:28 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:34 am
Personal transport isn't the hard problem.
The problem with "Model Ts" is that competing with horses is easier than competing with ICEs.
Only if you've got roads to drive them on, which mostly wasn't vthe case outside if cities when Model T sales first took off. It was their constantly decreasibg price plus reliability and capability that drove sales. We need lower-priced PEVs now, not later.
Sorry, the world doesn't match your requirements. EVs are going to take over the market starting at the edge of the market where they have an advantage, at the high end, not with at the lower -priced edge of the market.
WetEV
#49
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:59 am

As for a reason to buy a PHEV, consider this:

https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a ... 50-hybrid/

https://www.motortrend.com/news/2021-fo ... r-weather/

A BEV with some sort of power to home could do the same thing... just not as long, and without easy refueling in the case of a long power outage.

Of course, this isn't a cheap PEV.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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