Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

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Thanks, but unfortunately I find it physically difficult to read books these days. Having been a reader all my life until age 55 or so it was a big change, but I'm too occupied trying to stay alive to give it a lot of regretful thinking. Fortunately I was still reading the Nation and similar fare weekly when greenwashing took hold, and I still read enough online to keep tabs on it.

Unfortunately, human nature dictates that if someone offers us a painless way to feel that we are doing something to save the planet, that will always be preferred over actually doing things to save the ecosphere. That aspect of our genetic programming - the prioritization of comfort over ethics - is what has, along with the universal drive to procreate no matter what, doomed our species and most of the others here as well.
 
I think the planet will be fine, what is at stake is human civilization as we know it. Since that is what got us to this point, maybe it's no huge loss.

Worst case would be a nuclear holocaust but even then, in a few million years or so I'm sure life of some form will start again.

Sadly, as the book blurb says, the problems are political and cultural and not technological. If it was the other way around I'd have much more hope.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Trying to decide it's one or the other, as to finance for renewables or finance for cleanup, is missing the point. The message of the IPCC reports is that at least some of both need to happen simultaneously.

I'm saying that we need to expend most of the available resources on preventing carbon emissions, while continuing to research, on a much smaller scale, atmospheric capture and various forms of sequestration - NOT including injection into oilfields and mines. We need to do what we can do right now, RIGHT NOW. The time for assessing science fiction scenarios that may work in 30-50 years is long passed. Biofuels like algae-produced gasoline analogs are worth pursuing. Fighting deforestation is worth doing. E-85 tech, though, was always a sop to the North American corn growers and to US auto makers who wanted to kick the can down the road - and get paid for doing so. It is the filtered cigarettes of climate change modification.

I think there may be some disagreement as to what is do-able right now, and what is advisable to finance with some near-term risk.

A few illustrative points. This article from today highlights that at least some of the technological work is already done, and that finance, not innovation is the hurdle, in some respects. And that if the carbon price is there, in effect, this would create greater demand for the supplying of solutions:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/no-clearer-if-carbon-capture-is-silver-bullet-or-mirage
Carbon Capture: Silver Bullet or Mirage?
Carbon capture’s prospects are brighter than ever, but carbon pricing remains a major hurdle.
Jason Deign December 07, 2020

"....For carbon capture to take off in a meaningful way, companies will need to have a clear financial incentive. That means having carbon pricing comfortably above the cost of capture, usage and/or storage. And the cost depends on where the carbon is coming from....."

This IEA report page they link seems also helpful, though I haven't read deeply into it yet.
https://www.iea.org/reports/ccus-in-clean-energy-transitions

As well, I had forgotten this about Musk, and I don't hang on or agree with his every word, but on this point, it would be difficult to find anything he's ever done or said with which I agree more strongly:

https://insideevs.com/features/458853/tesla-elon-musk-carbon-tax-biden-adminstration/
Could Tesla CEO Elon Musk's Carbon Tax Vision Become A Reality?
Dec 07, 2020 7h ago
By: EVANNEX

"....Driving a gasoline-powered car is a classic example of an "untaxed negative externality." Fossil fuel powered cars create emissions that accelerate climate change and causes all kinds of damage, without paying any kind of penalty.

Musk argued this situation was costing $5.3 trillion a year, citing International Monetary Funds data. For him, the solution was obvious: "We need to move away from this and have a carbon tax."...."

Now this is not focused on pollution cleanup, but is more of a generic comment on carbon taxes and global climate emergency financial flow, but I think it's pretty clear from other links that a meaningful widespread carbon tax of some sort is important to financing the build-out of co2 cleanup services and technologies.

With that said, we also had this week someone else point up the Chile-based project to manufacture drop-in gasoline replacements, including (it would seem) from ambient CO2 feedstock, so that would seem to be another indicator that the relevant technologies are somewhat further along than has in the past been discussed. I do think there is a phenomenon at play here that discussion itself of this topic has been in many climate emergency discussion quarters very stultified for a very long time, and so it has been difficult to find a toe-hold for discussing the importance of pollution cleanup alongside pollution prevention, with some carbon warriors tenaciously arguing that pollution cleanup technology is way-unrealistic and not ready-for-use and the emergency is too great and prevention should be massively prioritized.

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2020/company/porsche-siemens-energy-pilot-project-chile-research-development-synthetic-fuels-efuels-23021.html

"....Chile, with its excellent climate conditions for wind power and the associated low cost of electricity, has a very high potential in international terms for producing, exporting and locally using green hydrogen. To generate green hydrogen, electrolysers use wind power to dissociate water into its two components: oxygen and hydrogen. In a second step, plans call for filtering CO2 out of the air and then combining it with the green hydrogen to form synthetic methanol. The result is renewable methanol, which can be converted into climate-friendly fuel using an MTG (methanol to gasoline) technology to be licensed and supported by ExxonMobil....."

In any case, regardless of disagreements or figuring out information relevant to broader climate emergency considerations, I think this last headline was just so welcome, and could have ramifications for the direction of this thread, if indeed it turns out to be legit that drop-in gasoline replacements are coming along.
 
Musk was arguing - correctly - that we need to stop producing vast amounts CO2 with our vehicles, by switching to EVs. (This of course also benefits him greatly.) The carbon tax would do several things, including drive research into capture, but its primary and immediate effect would be to dis-incentivize the internal combustion engine for personal transportation. To put it another way, it would be a powerful force in preventing carbon emissions. It could possibly also prove to be the assist needed to develop capture technology that is practical, but for now it would be driving down CO2 emissions much, much more than driving their capture.
 
This takes another step in getting at whether we will have "efuels" (apparently the latest word for it), zero-net-carbon (? or low-net-carbon?) synthetic fuels that could in theory help prolong the useful lives of existing ICVs and PHEVs, or even allow a path where new ones could be put on the roads for some time. Note that I doubt the exact carbon calculations being put forth here will hold up that well, but the important thing in my view is not the exact number, but the basic principle of asking to what extent drop-in-replacement zero-net-carbon synthetic fuels, along with zero-net-carbon other synthetic materials, are possible.

https://www.motor1.com/news/489509/porsche-synthetic-fuel-2022-production/
Porsche Synthetic Fuel Said To Be As Clean As EVs, Trials Start In 2022
Feb 20, 2021 8h ago
By: Jacob Oliva
Is this the spark of hope that internal combustion engines have been waiting for?

"....Dr. Walliser believes that conventionally-fueled engines that use synthetic fuel will turn ICE-equipped cars into machines that are as clean as EVs. He added that eFuel is important to Porsche to reduce their CO2 output, citing that synthetic fuels are cleaner, have no by-product, have fewer particulates, and less NOx produced than current pump fuel.

"How reduced, you ask? Dr. Walliser said that when Porsche starts full production of eFuel, they expect a CO2 reduction of 85 percent.

""From a 'well to wheel' perspective – and you have to consider the well to wheel impact of all vehicles – this will be the same level of CO2 produced in the manufacture and use of an electric vehicle," Dr. Walliser concluded."
 
LeftieBiker said:
Musk was arguing - correctly - that we need to stop producing vast amounts CO2 with our vehicles, by switching to EVs. (This of course also benefits him greatly.) The carbon tax would do several things, including drive research into capture, but its primary and immediate effect would be to dis-incentivize the internal combustion engine for personal transportation. To put it another way, it would be a powerful force in preventing carbon emissions. It could possibly also prove to be the assist needed to develop capture technology that is practical, but for now it would be driving down CO2 emissions much, much more than driving their capture.

Regardless of what Mr. Musk said in that particular case, it has become much more apparent he evidently has a very strong interest in both carbon taxes and in carbon cleanup, as he should, in my opinion.
 
GRA said:
I tried copying the post I'm replying to here over to the "Mink hole. . ." topic, but having to add all the missing quotes and keep the attributions straight while doing this on my phone and gradually losing feeling in my fingers (it was cool and windy last night) was just too much. A mod should feel free to move this and the next two replies to that topic, if they wish.

WetEV said:
GRA said:
As I've pointed out, they're outselling BEVs now in many European countries, for a variety of reasons, much higher fuel prices being one.

For 2020 in Europe, 740,805 BEVs in 2020, and 573,526 PHEVs.

https://carsalesbase.com/european-sales-2020-ev-phev/

Did I miss the week that PHEVs outsold BEVs?

You apparently missed the last couple of months, where PHEVs did, which was the opposite of what had been happening before. Too early to say if it's a long term trend or just a blip. But looking at 2020, what happened in Europe then? Let's see, IIRR the Model 3 (and Y?) arrived, priced for early adopters. Then the pandemic hit, and sales % presumably shifted to the higher end as here, as early adopters had the disposable income to buy cars, and those lower down had either lost their jobs or were worried about doing so.

Europe registrations are the source of sales data, and "preregistration" is allowed. Speculation: Suppose an automaker thought that PHEV subsidies were going to be cut. So then they take orders, preregister the sales of PHEVs now, collect the subsidies, and deliver the cars later. Because of this and other factors, full year data is the only trustable data.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Uh huh, except that PHEVs can offer significant GHG reductions with much smaller packs, e g. Niro/Kona/Prius Prime. FTM, plenty of people could have significantly reduced their GHGs from the PiP's 11 mile AER, if it was easier to keep the ICE from kicking in; my 1-way commute is 4.2 miles, so if I were to drive it like most people instead of riding my bike, the PiP's AER would be alI I'd need.

Only problem is that in reality, most people with PHEVs drive them like they were HEVs. Almost never plugged in. So far less real GHG reduction.

Can you provide a cite that 'most' PHEVs are never plugged in?

https://theicct.org/publications/phev-real-world-usage-sept2020

37% of PHEV global miles are electric miles. More in the USA, with low fuel taxes than in Europe with high fuel taxes.

So high fuel taxes are not the answer to getting PHEVs used as mostly EVs.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Don't get me wrong, a HEV is generally less polluting than an ICE. And yes, some are actually driven as PHEVs. But with battery prices below $100/kWh, a PHEV is a more expensive solution than a BEV. As is an ICE, unless gasoline prices are really low, or the driving/charging pattern isn't reasonable.

Maybe a different tax or subsidy scheme might change this, but such behavior seems fairly consistent even with high gasoline prices in Europe. I'd guess, and GRA is going to ignore this point, the underwhelming driving experience of most PHEVs on pure EV might be a large part of the issue.

Again, depends where you're driving it,
relative prices of fossil fuel and electricity, andd what your incentives are to drive it electrically. And while some PHEVs have had anemic pure EV performance, many don't - it's not inherent to the tech. The PiP was underwhelming, the Volt wasn't, etc.

Sure, Volt and i3 with REX.


GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Meanwhile, BEVs need much larger packs to be considered useful by customers, which raises their price to where people with incomes able to claim the full tax exemption are, i.e. above mass-market prices.

If we're going to have subsidies here, I'm glad that we cap the fed. subsidy at 18kWh although it would be far better to end it altogether, or at least change it to range-based as California has done with ours. But without a price cap as well, it doesn't send the right signal to customers or companies, instead subsidizing those who need it least, and causing companies to emphasize developing more rather than less expensive options (see Mach-E vs. Escape below).

The point to subsidies, mandates and/or pollution taxes is to drive adoption of the new and clean technology, and to match the cost of the dirty technology that isn't accounted for directly. Not social justice. Not optimal economic efficiency today. Long term economic efficiency.

Any such subsidies, mandates etc. should be designed to achieve the desired end as quickly, efficiently and at the lowest cost both financially and environmentally as possible. The current ones here fail to do that.

Failing? Doubling every 2.5 years or so is about the best that can be done. I'm hearing of battery shortages again.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
See fuel/carbon taxes.
Subsidies are more efficient when alternatives are a tiny fraction of the market. This will change.
High fuel taxes seem to be working quite well in Europe, an area where the take rate is higher than the U.S. Are you suggesting that European countries should eliminate them, and only rely on subsidies?

Based on two months of registrations, the take rate is higher.

But is that real world usage actually higher?

PHEV miles are only 37% electric worldwide.


GRA said:
WetEV said:
Not just 0-60 times, BEVs are smoother and more responsive. Real PHEVs, unlike those "you could design" tend to have small electric motors as well as small batteries. The exceptions are the Volt and the I3 with REx. GM killed the Volt, and BMW has said REx has no future.

I don't recall people complaining that the Volt, a semi "mass-market" PHEV, was sluggish when in hold mode.
Maximum electric thrust is still 149 horsepower and a rollicking 294 pound-feet of torque, and Chevy's claimed 0-60 mph acceleration time remains pegged at 8.4 seconds. Our 2016 Chevy Volt long-termer beat that mark with a 7.5-second performance at our test track, and this 2019 example feels like it will do the same.
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/first-impressions/2019-chevrolet-volt-first-drive.html

For comparison, my Forester does 0-60 in 9.6 seconds, which is entirely adequate - faster is fun, but hardly necessary. Many of the current 200+ mile BEVs have around 200 HP motors, but then so do some comparable PHEVs which can drive them solely off the battery. Again, you can design a PHEV for whatever power split you choose. My personal desire is for an ICE to maintain freeway cruising speed, with the battery and motor providing adequate accel (ca. 8-10 sec. 0-60) alone or boost to the ICE for passing. Others have different priorities.

0-60 isn't all there is to smoother and more responsive. The Volt is closer to a BEV than a hybrid, as is the i3 with REX. Two discontinued models suggest your personal desire isn't "mass market".


GRA said:
WetEV said:
The focus on "mass market". The real market is a distribution, not just a "mass market".

New technologies rarely start at the center of the market. Instead, they start at an edge. Then grow.

Why do you keep insisting that EVs start with "the mass market"?

Please point to anywhere I've "insisted" (there's you using that word again) that EVs "start" with the mass market. What I have said is that we're a decade into mass production of PEVs and we shouldn't be helping the wealthy buy expensive toys, but should instead concentrate on getting as much of a transportation GHG reduction we can as soon as we can, which requires a much larger % of PEVs being sold. That can only be accomplished by reducing their prices and reducing or eliminating as many practical roadblocks as possible. Batteries and charging infrastructure aren't there yet, so that leaves HEVs and PHEVs as the lowest common denominator. I don't believe we can afford to wait to 2030 to do so. You apparently do.

Time is why everything doesn't happen at once. A decade of doubling every 2.5 years has us at about 2% market share now, the next decade will be more interesting.

Even if every car sold today was a BEV, the fleet would still be over half ICE in 2030.

So would PHEVs do better? As only 37% of miles are electric, less in Europe with high gas taxes, would that really work better?
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
One area where incentives are on- topic is that seriously raising fuel or carbon taxes so that fossil fuels are more expensive than charging anywhere in the country would transform charging infrastructure, especially DC QCing, to a profitable business model. That would provide the incentive for companies to build and operate them without being dependent on government subsidies, or for car manufacturers to build them as a marketing expense, massively increasing the rate at which the infrastructure expands.

As any such major increase would be massively unpopular here and politically impossible for years if not decades, we should at least try to gradually increase the fed. fuel tax to catch up to inflation and then index it to that. It apparently needs to be raised about 15¢/gal. to make up for 28 years of inflation since it was last raised in 1993, so doing it over a 3 (5¢/year) or 5 year (3¢/year) period should be a priority. AFAICT there's no mention of that in the current infrastructure plan, but drivers should be bearing the cost of the wear and year they themselves cause directly. On a related note, my corner gas station just hit $4.00/gal. for the first time in two or three years, presumably still fallout from Texas.

Electric cars are not exactly the same as gas cars.

Public charging is not exactly the same thing as gasoline retailing.

Forcing square pegs into round holes isn't often useful.

GRA is focused on trying to recreate the gasoline economy with electric (or hydrogen) cars. The hole is round. The peg is square.

Electric cars with distributed fueling are just nicer. Of course, that only works for 98% (or something like that) of driving. With the exception of the few times when you want to make a long trip, then some sort of centralized fueling is needed. The total package needs to be cost competitive, not the exception. Twice or even four times the price for 2% of the time and half the price for 98% of the time is a good deal. Focusing on the exception is ignoring most of the issue. I pay about $1 per gallon equivalent. What is your corner gas station?

Electric cars make the most sense when they can be L1/L2 charged at home or work. They don't fit nicely into centralized fueling. Round hole. Square peg.

In 50 to 100 years, when everyone has the ability to charge at home or work, then the need for central charging will be limited. Which doesn't help us for the next 20-30 years, when the need to reduce GHGs is most critical. Of course, maybe we'll see a large scale shift to subscription transportation with or without AVs, or urban redesign, or a large increase in mass transit use, to reduce the number of privately owned cars and the need to provide convenient charging for all of them. Failing that, we're going to need QCs and fast L2s away from home/work just for routine charging.

It will take on the order of 20 years for old cars to mostly get off the roads. It would take something like 10 to 15 years for enough production of alternative vehicles if BEVs, more for hydrogen, less for PHEVs. So most of the reduction will be beyond 20-30 years. As for GHG reduction, transportation isn't the largest problem by "green premium". A mostly negative cost green premium means BEVs will happen, just not as fast as you want. Other GHG problems are more expensive, or even technically unsolved. Time period is a different subject.

Convenient charging for everyone needs to be built faster with PHEVs. That is, unless just driven like gassers. Which is what 63% of the miles are today.

Hydrogen can't be convenient, it is centralized fueling.

Public L2 away from home unless at work or other place you would normally be for hours, is almost worthless except as an emergency fallback. Live on that for a while, and then you will stop suggesting it. Even public L3 isn't very great. Centralized fueling of any sort is a poor solution compared with home charging.
 
PHEVs are dying in Europe. Or being killed by potentially changing regulations.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-europe-regulations-insight-idUKKBN2BZ0C2

Has the sale of the close out specials started yet?
 
WetEV said:
PHEVs are dying in Europe. Or being killed by potentially changing regulations.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-europe-regulations-insight-idUKKBN2BZ0C2

Has the sale of the close out specials started yet?

What’s even more unfortunate is that Europe is trying to ban export of its older cars (including PHEVs over 3 years old) to Africa meaning unwanted vehicles will get crushed making more environmental damage and keeping poor countries using even older cars even longer
and all because they are butthurt that the poor countries keep using their old cars that don’t meet their regulations, the whole dieselgate got them butt hurt

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/science-environment-54665545
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
I tried copying the post I'm replying to here over to the "Mink hole. . ." topic, but having to add all the missing quotes and keep the attributions straight while doing this on my phone and gradually losing feeling in my fingers (it was cool and windy last night) was just too much. A mod should feel free to move this and the next two replies to that topic, if they wish.

WetEV said:
For 2020 in Europe, 740,805 BEVs in 2020, and 573,526 PHEVs.

https://carsalesbase.com/european-sales-2020-ev-phev/

Did I miss the week that PHEVs outsold BEVs?

You apparently missed the last couple of months, where PHEVs did, which was the opposite of what had been happening before. Too early to say if it's a long term trend or just a blip. But looking at 2020, what happened in Europe then? Let's see, IIRR the Model 3 (and Y?) arrived, priced for early adopters. Then the pandemic hit, and sales % presumably shifted to the higher end as here, as early adopters had the disposable income to buy cars, and those lower down had either lost their jobs or were worried about doing so.

Europe registrations are the source of sales data, and "preregistration" is allowed. Speculation: Suppose an automaker thought that PHEV subsidies were going to be cut. So then they take orders, preregister the sales of PHEVs now, collect the subsidies, and deliver the cars later. Because of this and other factors, full year data is the only trustable data.

The thing is, BEV sales of many of the formerly popular models dropped. Guessing the early adopters got their Model 3s or Ys last year. One notable exception to BEVs being at the top end was that Zoe sales in France dropped after being at the top of their list for quite a while. That was their mass-market BEV.
 
I agree that what happened with the earlier adopters is happened on a larger scale now: having gotten that taste of EV driving with their PHEV, many people are going on to full-fledged EVs for their next vehicle, now that the range is in most cases at least adequate.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Only problem is that in reality, most people with PHEVs drive them like they were HEVs. Almost never plugged in. So far less real GHG reduction.

Can you provide a cite that 'most' PHEVs are never plugged in?

https://theicct.org/publications/phev-real-world-usage-sept2020

37% of PHEV global miles are electric miles. More in the USA, with low fuel taxes than in Europe with high fuel taxes.

So high fuel taxes are not the answer to getting PHEVs used as mostly EVs.

I saw that back when it came out, although Norway also has high fuel (and other) taxes. The main thing it demonstrates is that in some countries the incentives are wrong: instead of incentivizing PEV sales, they should be incentivizing ZE miles driven. I do wonder if the low rate across much of Europe is due to the higher % if people living in apartments with no way to charge.

I've suggested a couple of methods to incentivize electric driving, including HOV/HOT lanes with reduced or zero prices for electric miles and/or banning SO cars unless they were driving electric; Congestion/ULEV Zones ala' London; either modified FastTrak/EZPass etc.
transponders, or just modify the car's computer to track the electric miles per year, and get a reduced license fee or what have you.

I'm glad to see the U.S. PHEVs are over 50% electric miles, indicating that PHEVs are being used here as intended for routine local driving, so there seems little reason to mandate higher minimum AERs in the U.S.

OTOH, Europe seems to be considering throwing the baby out with the bathwater, rather than fixing the incentives:
Once 'green' plug-in hybrid cars suddenly look like dinosaurs in Europe

https://mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BZ0C2?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D#aoh=16184478730533&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Farticle%2Fus-autos-europe-regulations-insight-idUSKBN2BZ0C2
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Don't get me wrong, a HEV is generally less polluting than an ICE. And yes, some are actually driven as PHEVs. But with battery prices below $100/kWh, a PHEV is a more expensive solution than a BEV. As is an ICE, unless gasoline prices are really low, or the driving/charging pattern isn't reasonable.

Maybe a different tax or subsidy scheme might change this, but such behavior seems fairly consistent even with high gasoline prices in Europe. I'd guess, and GRA is going to ignore this point, the underwhelming driving experience of most PHEVs on pure EV might be a large part of the issue.

Again, depends where you're driving it,
relative prices of fossil fuel and electricity, andd what your incentives are to drive it electrically. And while some PHEVs have had anemic pure EV performance, many don't - it's not inherent to the tech. The PiP was underwhelming, the Volt wasn't, etc.

Sure, Volt and i3 with REX.


Plus RAV4 Prime and probably others I'm forgetting as well, so it seems we agree the issue isn't inherent to the tech.


WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
The point to subsidies, mandates and/or pollution taxes is to drive adoption of the new and clean technology, and to match the cost of the dirty technology that isn't accounted for directly. Not social justice. Not optimal economic efficiency today. Long term economic efficiency.

Any such subsidies, mandates etc. should be designed to achieve the desired end as quickly, efficiently and at the lowest cost both financially and environmentally as possible. The current ones here fail to do that.

Failing? Doubling every 2.5 years or so is about the best that can be done. I'm hearing of battery shortages again.

The way to deal with battery shortages is to only put as much battery in a vehicle as the owner routinely needs, which also keeps the weight and cost down, and the efficiency up.
 
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