WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:20 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:59 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:55 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:03 pm
Uh huh, except that PHEVs can offer significant GHG reductions with much smaller packs, e g. Niro/Kona/Prius Prime. FTM, plenty of people could have significantly reduced their GHGs from the PiP's 11 mile AER, if it was easier to keep the ICE from kicking in; my 1-way commute is 4.2 miles, so if I were to drive it like most people instead of riding my bike, the PiP's AER would be alI I'd need.
Only problem is that in reality, most people with PHEVs drive them like they were HEVs. Almost never plugged in. So far less real GHG reduction.
Can you provide a cite that 'most' PHEVs are never plugged in?
https://theicct.org/publications/phev-r ... e-sept2020

37% of PHEV global miles are electric miles. More in the USA, with low fuel taxes than in Europe with high fuel taxes.

So high fuel taxes are not the answer to getting PHEVs used as mostly EVs.
WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:28 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:55 am
Don't get me wrong, a HEV is generally less polluting than an ICE. And yes, some are actually driven as PHEVs. But with battery prices below $100/kWh, a PHEV is a more expensive solution than a BEV. As is an ICE, unless gasoline prices are really low, or the driving/charging pattern isn't reasonable.

Maybe a different tax or subsidy scheme might change this, but such behavior seems fairly consistent even with high gasoline prices in Europe. I'd guess, and GRA is going to ignore this point, the underwhelming driving experience of most PHEVs on pure EV might be a large part of the issue.
Again, depends where you're driving it,
relative prices of fossil fuel and electricity, andd what your incentives are to drive it electrically. And while some PHEVs have had anemic pure EV performance, many don't - it's not inherent to the tech. The PiP was underwhelming, the Volt wasn't, etc.
Sure, Volt and i3 with REX.

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:55 am
GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:03 pm
Meanwhile, BEVs need much larger packs to be considered useful by customers, which raises their price to where people with incomes able to claim the full tax exemption are, i.e. above mass-market prices.

If we're going to have subsidies here, I'm glad that we cap the fed. subsidy at 18kWh although it would be far better to end it altogether, or at least change it to range-based as California has done with ours. But without a price cap as well, it doesn't send the right signal to customers or companies, instead subsidizing those who need it least, and causing companies to emphasize developing more rather than less expensive options (see Mach-E vs. Escape below).
The point to subsidies, mandates and/or pollution taxes is to drive adoption of the new and clean technology, and to match the cost of the dirty technology that isn't accounted for directly. Not social justice. Not optimal economic efficiency today. Long term economic efficiency.
Any such subsidies, mandates etc. should be designed to achieve the desired end as quickly, efficiently and at the lowest cost both financially and environmentally as possible. The current ones here fail to do that.
Failing? Doubling every 2.5 years or so is about the best that can be done. I'm hearing of battery shortages again.
WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:56 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:51 pm
GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:26 pm
See fuel/carbon taxes.
Subsidies are more efficient when alternatives are a tiny fraction of the market. This will change.
High fuel taxes seem to be working quite well in Europe, an area where the take rate is higher than the U.S. Are you suggesting that European countries should eliminate them, and only rely on subsidies?
Based on two months of registrations, the take rate is higher.

But is that real world usage actually higher?

PHEV miles are only 37% electric worldwide.

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:51 pm


Not just 0-60 times, BEVs are smoother and more responsive. Real PHEVs, unlike those "you could design" tend to have small electric motors as well as small batteries. The exceptions are the Volt and the I3 with REx. GM killed the Volt, and BMW has said REx has no future.
I don't recall people complaining that the Volt, a semi "mass-market" PHEV, was sluggish when in hold mode.
Maximum electric thrust is still 149 horsepower and a rollicking 294 pound-feet of torque, and Chevy's claimed 0-60 mph acceleration time remains pegged at 8.4 seconds. Our 2016 Chevy Volt long-termer beat that mark with a 7.5-second performance at our test track, and this 2019 example feels like it will do the same.
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/first- ... drive.html

For comparison, my Forester does 0-60 in 9.6 seconds, which is entirely adequate - faster is fun, but hardly necessary. Many of the current 200+ mile BEVs have around 200 HP motors, but then so do some comparable PHEVs which can drive them solely off the battery. Again, you can design a PHEV for whatever power split you choose. My personal desire is for an ICE to maintain freeway cruising speed, with the battery and motor providing adequate accel (ca. 8-10 sec. 0-60) alone or boost to the ICE for passing. Others have different priorities.
0-60 isn't all there is to smoother and more responsive. The Volt is closer to a BEV than a hybrid, as is the i3 with REX. Two discontinued models suggest your personal desire isn't "mass market".

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:51 pm
The focus on "mass market". The real market is a distribution, not just a "mass market".

New technologies rarely start at the center of the market. Instead, they start at an edge. Then grow.

Why do you keep insisting that EVs start with "the mass market"?
Please point to anywhere I've "insisted" (there's you using that word again) that EVs "start" with the mass market. What I have said is that we're a decade into mass production of PEVs and we shouldn't be helping the wealthy buy expensive toys, but should instead concentrate on getting as much of a transportation GHG reduction we can as soon as we can, which requires a much larger % of PEVs being sold. That can only be accomplished by reducing their prices and reducing or eliminating as many practical roadblocks as possible. Batteries and charging infrastructure aren't there yet, so that leaves HEVs and PHEVs as the lowest common denominator. I don't believe we can afford to wait to 2030 to do so. You apparently do.
Time is why everything doesn't happen at once. A decade of doubling every 2.5 years has us at about 2% market share now, the next decade will be more interesting.

Even if every car sold today was a BEV, the fleet would still be over half ICE in 2030.

So would PHEVs do better? As only 37% of miles are electric, less in Europe with high gas taxes, would that really work better?
WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:16 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:04 am
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:01 pm
One area where incentives are on- topic is that seriously raising fuel or carbon taxes so that fossil fuels are more expensive than charging anywhere in the country would transform charging infrastructure, especially DC QCing, to a profitable business model. That would provide the incentive for companies to build and operate them without being dependent on government subsidies, or for car manufacturers to build them as a marketing expense, massively increasing the rate at which the infrastructure expands.

As any such major increase would be massively unpopular here and politically impossible for years if not decades, we should at least try to gradually increase the fed. fuel tax to catch up to inflation and then index it to that. It apparently needs to be raised about 15¢/gal. to make up for 28 years of inflation since it was last raised in 1993, so doing it over a 3 (5¢/year) or 5 year (3¢/year) period should be a priority. AFAICT there's no mention of that in the current infrastructure plan, but drivers should be bearing the cost of the wear and year they themselves cause directly. On a related note, my corner gas station just hit $4.00/gal. for the first time in two or three years, presumably still fallout from Texas.
Electric cars are not exactly the same as gas cars.

Public charging is not exactly the same thing as gasoline retailing.

Forcing square pegs into round holes isn't often useful.

GRA is focused on trying to recreate the gasoline economy with electric (or hydrogen) cars. The hole is round. The peg is square.

Electric cars with distributed fueling are just nicer. Of course, that only works for 98% (or something like that) of driving. With the exception of the few times when you want to make a long trip, then some sort of centralized fueling is needed. The total package needs to be cost competitive, not the exception. Twice or even four times the price for 2% of the time and half the price for 98% of the time is a good deal. Focusing on the exception is ignoring most of the issue. I pay about $1 per gallon equivalent. What is your corner gas station?

Electric cars make the most sense when they can be L1/L2 charged at home or work. They don't fit nicely into centralized fueling. Round hole. Square peg.
In 50 to 100 years, when everyone has the ability to charge at home or work, then the need for central charging will be limited. Which doesn't help us for the next 20-30 years, when the need to reduce GHGs is most critical. Of course, maybe we'll see a large scale shift to subscription transportation with or without AVs, or urban redesign, or a large increase in mass transit use, to reduce the number of privately owned cars and the need to provide convenient charging for all of them. Failing that, we're going to need QCs and fast L2s away from home/work just for routine charging.
It will take on the order of 20 years for old cars to mostly get off the roads. It would take something like 10 to 15 years for enough production of alternative vehicles if BEVs, more for hydrogen, less for PHEVs. So most of the reduction will be beyond 20-30 years. As for GHG reduction, transportation isn't the largest problem by "green premium". A mostly negative cost green premium means BEVs will happen, just not as fast as you want. Other GHG problems are more expensive, or even technically unsolved. Time period is a different subject.

Convenient charging for everyone needs to be built faster with PHEVs. That is, unless just driven like gassers. Which is what 63% of the miles are today.

Hydrogen can't be convenient, it is centralized fueling.

Public L2 away from home unless at work or other place you would normally be for hours, is almost worthless except as an emergency fallback. Live on that for a while, and then you will stop suggesting it. Even public L3 isn't very great. Centralized fueling of any sort is a poor solution compared with home charging.
WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:20 pm

PHEVs are dying in Europe. Or being killed by potentially changing regulations.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto ... KKBN2BZ0C2

Has the sale of the close out specials started yet?
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:42 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:20 pm
PHEVs are dying in Europe. Or being killed by potentially changing regulations.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto ... KKBN2BZ0C2

Has the sale of the close out specials started yet?
What’s even more unfortunate is that Europe is trying to ban export of its older cars (including PHEVs over 3 years old) to Africa meaning unwanted vehicles will get crushed making more environmental damage and keeping poor countries using even older cars even longer
and all because they are butthurt that the poor countries keep using their old cars that don’t meet their regulations, the whole dieselgate got them butt hurt

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... t-54665545

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:29 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:58 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:57 pm
I tried copying the post I'm replying to here over to the "Mink hole. . ." topic, but having to add all the missing quotes and keep the attributions straight while doing this on my phone and gradually losing feeling in my fingers (it was cool and windy last night) was just too much. A mod should feel free to move this and the next two replies to that topic, if they wish.
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:43 pm


For 2020 in Europe, 740,805 BEVs in 2020, and 573,526 PHEVs.

https://carsalesbase.com/european-sales-2020-ev-phev/

Did I miss the week that PHEVs outsold BEVs?
You apparently missed the last couple of months, where PHEVs did, which was the opposite of what had been happening before. Too early to say if it's a long term trend or just a blip. But looking at 2020, what happened in Europe then? Let's see, IIRR the Model 3 (and Y?) arrived, priced for early adopters. Then the pandemic hit, and sales % presumably shifted to the higher end as here, as early adopters had the disposable income to buy cars, and those lower down had either lost their jobs or were worried about doing so.
Europe registrations are the source of sales data, and "preregistration" is allowed. Speculation: Suppose an automaker thought that PHEV subsidies were going to be cut. So then they take orders, preregister the sales of PHEVs now, collect the subsidies, and deliver the cars later. Because of this and other factors, full year data is the only trustable data.
The thing is, BEV sales of many of the formerly popular models dropped. Guessing the early adopters got their Model 3s or Ys last year. One notable exception to BEVs being at the top end was that Zoe sales in France dropped after being at the top of their list for quite a while. That was their mass-market BEV.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:47 pm

I agree that what happened with the earlier adopters is happened on a larger scale now: having gotten that taste of EV driving with their PHEV, many people are going on to full-fledged EVs for their next vehicle, now that the range is in most cases at least adequate.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:54 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:20 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:59 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:55 am


Only problem is that in reality, most people with PHEVs drive them like they were HEVs. Almost never plugged in. So far less real GHG reduction.
Can you provide a cite that 'most' PHEVs are never plugged in?
https://theicct.org/publications/phev-r ... e-sept2020

37% of PHEV global miles are electric miles. More in the USA, with low fuel taxes than in Europe with high fuel taxes.

So high fuel taxes are not the answer to getting PHEVs used as mostly EVs.
I saw that back when it came out, although Norway also has high fuel (and other) taxes. The main thing it demonstrates is that in some countries the incentives are wrong: instead of incentivizing PEV sales, they should be incentivizing ZE miles driven. I do wonder if the low rate across much of Europe is due to the higher % if people living in apartments with no way to charge.

I've suggested a couple of methods to incentivize electric driving, including HOV/HOT lanes with reduced or zero prices for electric miles and/or banning SO cars unless they were driving electric; Congestion/ULEV Zones ala' London; either modified FastTrak/EZPass etc.
transponders, or just modify the car's computer to track the electric miles per year, and get a reduced license fee or what have you.

I'm glad to see the U.S. PHEVs are over 50% electric miles, indicating that PHEVs are being used here as intended for routine local driving, so there seems little reason to mandate higher minimum AERs in the U.S.

OTOH, Europe seems to be considering throwing the baby out with the bathwater, rather than fixing the incentives:
Once 'green' plug-in hybrid cars suddenly look like dinosaurs in Europe
https://mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproje ... SKBN2BZ0C2
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:01 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:28 am
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:55 am
Don't get me wrong, a HEV is generally less polluting than an ICE. And yes, some are actually driven as PHEVs. But with battery prices below $100/kWh, a PHEV is a more expensive solution than a BEV. As is an ICE, unless gasoline prices are really low, or the driving/charging pattern isn't reasonable.

Maybe a different tax or subsidy scheme might change this, but such behavior seems fairly consistent even with high gasoline prices in Europe. I'd guess, and GRA is going to ignore this point, the underwhelming driving experience of most PHEVs on pure EV might be a large part of the issue.
Again, depends where you're driving it,
relative prices of fossil fuel and electricity, andd what your incentives are to drive it electrically. And while some PHEVs have had anemic pure EV performance, many don't - it's not inherent to the tech. The PiP was underwhelming, the Volt wasn't, etc.
Sure, Volt and i3 with REX.

Plus RAV4 Prime and probably others I'm forgetting as well, so it seems we agree the issue isn't inherent to the tech.

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:28 am
GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:55 am


The point to subsidies, mandates and/or pollution taxes is to drive adoption of the new and clean technology, and to match the cost of the dirty technology that isn't accounted for directly. Not social justice. Not optimal economic efficiency today. Long term economic efficiency.
Any such subsidies, mandates etc. should be designed to achieve the desired end as quickly, efficiently and at the lowest cost both financially and environmentally as possible. The current ones here fail to do that.
Failing? Doubling every 2.5 years or so is about the best that can be done. I'm hearing of battery shortages again.
The way to deal with battery shortages is to only put as much battery in a vehicle as the owner routinely needs, which also keeps the weight and cost down, and the efficiency up.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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