GRA said:
My free time's a bit limited for the next day or so, so my replies to WetEV's posts may be delayed.
A day or so turned out to be more like a week, but I hope to start catching up now. WetEV might want to wait until I've posted replies to all three of his past messages replying to mine here before writing his reply(s), as I've got several other topics to write replies for as well.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
I see no comment on that we are seeing exponential growth there.
We are seeing exponential growth here.
Except that we're not here for the past two years. Ignoring 2020 we're still not. We'll see what happens this and next year.
Subsidies in the USA stop at 18kWh. Please explain the "emphasize buying the largest possible battery pack" comment.
Uh huh, except that PHEVs can offer significant GHG reductions with much smaller packs, e g. Niro/Kona/Prius Prime. FTM, plenty of people could have significantly reduced their GHGs from the PiP's 11 mile AER, if it was easier to keep the ICE from kicking in; my 1-way commute is 4.2 miles, so if I were to drive it like most people instead of riding my bike, the PiP's AER would be alI I'd need.
Meanwhile, BEVs need much larger packs to be considered useful by customers, which raises their price to where people with incomes able to claim the full tax exemption are, i.e. above mass-market prices.
If we're going to have subsidies here, I'm glad that we cap the fed. subsidy at 18kWh although it would be far better to end it altogether, or at least change it to range-based as California has done with ours. But without a price cap as well, it doesn't send the right signal to customers or companies, instead subsidizing those who need it least, and causing companies to emphasize developing more rather than less expensive options (see Mach-E vs. Escape below).
WetEV said:
I just recall for how long you insisted that EVs were less than 1% of sales after the time EVs were more than 1% of sales. Doesn't fit your schema, eh?
Provide a cite showing I "insisted" any such thing, as I was monitoring and quoting the IEVS monthly sales totals until they stopped doing that.
WetEV said:
Yes, the last two years are below the exponential trend. The last two years have been interesting, to say the least. China cut subsidies for EVs in 2019 and the pandemic in 2020.
IIRR, China's subsidy 'reduction' involved raising the minimum AER for a vehicle to qualify for it.
WetEV said:
Through it all, EVs kept growing while ICE sales fell off a cliff.
Sure, thanks to strong mandates and early emergence from lockdown last year; China's economy grew last year.
After all, for most people any car is better than no car, and given the difficulty of getting a license for a non-BEV in many major cities there, it's hardly a surprise that NEV sales have risen. But did you notice that the best-selling BEV there is now an el cheapo Chinese minicar model (overtaking the Model 3)?
WetEV said:
Ah but what about this year?
Ford Mach-E
https://insideevs.com/news/492025/ford-mustang-mache-us-sales-february-2021/
So Ford is now about 2.3% electric.
GM has announced it will be all electric. Of course announcements are cheap, but the Hummer EV isn't. And is sold out in minutes.
https://www.carscoops.com/2020/10/gmc-hummer-ev-breaks-the-internet-edition-1-sells-out-in-approximately-ten-minutes/
Yeah, a Hummer really represents the best use of scarce battery resources :roll:
The Mach-E looks decent (albeit limited in cargo capacity), but it's competing in the same market as the Model Y so not mass-market priced. It remains to be seen whether its sales are additional to the Model Y's or just cannibalizes them - I suspect the latter, but we'll see.
More importantly, we're finally starting to see reasonably affordable PEVs produced in the most popular type i.e. CUVs with available AWD. Which is why I've been so pissed with GM for not introducing a PHEV-one based on or instead of the gen. 2 Volt back in 2016. They could have owned that market for years, with only lackluster competition from the inefficient Outlander and the cargo-compromised and half-assed conversion Crosstrek until the RAV4 Prime arrived.
What did Ford do? Only offer the PHEV Escape in 2WD, while the Mach-E can be had either way.
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
The world is seeing exponential growth in EV sales.
Sure, driven by subsidies and mandates, especially in China.
Do note that subsidies and mandates for non-ICE cars reduce air pollution. To counter the subsidy that an ICE gets for dumping toxic chemicals into people's lungs, EVs should be subsidized.
As others have noted, higher fuel/carbon taxes can do the same job as subsidies, directly penalizing the vehicles doing the most damage. That's one of the main reasons (along with generally higher subsidies, stronger mandates, and/or shorter driving distances) that PEVs have higher take rates in Europe.
I see the new Biden infrastructure plan aims to stop subsidizing fossil-fuel production companies in this country, not that I expect that to pass Congress.
WetEV said:
The subsidies and mandates almost
surely started the EV explosion faster, and do move the sales around, but the explosion was likely to happen in any case.
An EV as a daily driver is just better.
Did you catch that Worldwide EV sales have been growing exponentially?
See above, which merely confirms my claim that PEV and esp. BEV sales remain dependent on subsidies and mandates rather than natural demand. Remove the subsidies and add taxes, and people will buy the HEV/PHEV/BEV that best matches their requirements.
WetEV said:
Explain how Porsche Taycan sales have anything to do with the subsidy that will not even pay for some trim options.
Of course Taycan or S Plaid buyers are almost unaffected by subsidies, which is why there's no justifiable reason to give them to them.
OTOH, I just did my first PEV traffic count in over a year last Friday, and while above mass-market-priced Teslas made up most of the 48 cars I saw in a half hour (#1, 16 M3), there was a three-way tie for #2, with the Model S, Prius Prime and the Bolt with 5 each. The Model X and Y tied for 3rd with 4 each. Bringing up the rear were 2 Volt 1s and 2 PiPs, a Volt 2, Leaf 1, e-Golf, Clarity PHEV and a C-Max Energi.
I attribute the Bolt surge to the great deals starting last August? Only it, the Prime and maybe the Clarity are current designs for sale and mass-market priced, topping out below $40k. With subsidies the Prime is less expensive than the HEV Prius, which is simply wrong. It should cost less, its fuel more.