WetEV
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:51 pm

GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:26 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:52 am
PHEVs are percentage wise more subsidized than EVs.

If EVs were not better to drive, then the high end of the market wouldn't be where EVs sold. Subsidies for EVs reduce the distortion of the market caused by free ICE dumping of toxic gases into your lungs.
See fuel/carbon taxes.
Subsidies are more efficient when alternatives are a tiny fraction of the market. This will change.

GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:26 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:52 am
GRA wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:24 pm
Which is why you need to alter subsidies (if you insist on keeping them) to incentivize electric miles.
Which doesn't change the fact that PHEVs, as EV only, are not very good to drive, at least in my experience. Small battery means small electric output, which means under powered under electric only. I don't see how you fix that.
PHEV batteries tend to be more on the power than energy side if the spectrum. I've previously mentioned the RAV4's 5.9 sec. 0-60. The i8 was 3.6 sec. And I have no doubt you could design a PHEV with whatever ridiculous Accel capability your wealthiest customers were willing to pay for, but what does that have to do with providing mass market transportation?
Not just 0-60 times, BEVs are smoother and more responsive. Real PHEVs, unlike those "you could design" tend to have small electric motors as well as small batteries. The exceptions are the Volt and the I3 with REx. GM killed the Volt, and BMW has said REx has no future.

The focus on "mass market". The real market is a distribution, not just a "mass market".

New technologies rarely start at the center of the market. Instead, they start at an edge. Then grow.

Why do you keep insisting that EVs start with "the mass market"?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Nubo
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:08 pm

jlv wrote:
Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:24 am
GRA wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:06 pm
Because, as mentioned in previous posts, the incentive structure is wrong.
Yes. We need a $2/gallon "carbon capture" tax on gasoline to get people to understand the cost of burning fossil fuels. Do that and drop the stupid EV rebates and you'll get the market moving towards BEVs. And it would put the nail in the tire of PHEVs and ICEVs.
I'd approve as long as it's phased in gradually enough for people to plan, react and avoid the shock. But I doubt it will ever pass in America where gasoline has become synonymous with Freedom. We may have lost a lot of "#1" attributes but damnit we still got cheap gas!
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

WetEV
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:43 pm

GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:30 am
GRA wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:06 pm
Because, as mentioned in previous posts, the incentive structure is wrong
As I said, amusing. PHEVs with a subsidy are not selling very well. The "mass market" doesn't agree with your opinion.
As I've pointed out, they're outselling BEVs now in many European countries, for a variety of reasons, much higher fuel prices being one.
For 2020 in Europe, 740,805 BEVs in 2020, and 573,526 PHEVs.

https://carsalesbase.com/european-sales-2020-ev-phev/

Did I miss the week that PHEVs outsold BEVs?

GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:52 am
Does a computer care how often it needs to stop for a recharge?
Who cares what the computer thinks? The user sure as hell cares.
Ah yes, if the truck is automated, the user isn't there. So who cares how often the truck stops to recharge: the total trip time is what matters. For most commodities, how much does trip time matter? Is 22 hours always worth less than 18 hours?

GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:02 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:52 am
Perhaps the solution is smaller battery packs and more frequent charge stops, especially for dense loads.
In which case you pay even more of a time penalty. Some long-haul sleeper tractors can go 1,300 miles or more.
Without two drivers, need a sleep stop. That's 21 hours of just driving, no pee breaks, no dinner, not sleep, nothing. Or a whole lot of whites.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:20 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:55 am
Wet, I became eligible for vaccination yesterday, but I'm not sure when I'll have time to reply, as I'm trying to get an appointment ASAP. My 'free' time has mostly been sucked up by that for the past two days, so I'll get to replies to you when I can.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:02 am

Surely there is a better thread to have this discussion than one ostensibly about profitability of EV charging.
~Brian

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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:01 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:02 am
Surely there is a better thread to have this discussion than one ostensibly about profitability of EV charging.

It has certainly ranged well beyond the basic topic, discussing PHEVs, FCEVs, incentives and taxes, the effect of AVs etc. OTOH, many of these are inter-related. Perhaps the "Are PHEVs a transitional technology" topic would suffice for those sections, assuming someone can prise those out of the rest (and good luck to them!). [Edit]: Actually, given the wide range of topics which my and WetEV's arguments have covered, maybe moving the posts to WetEV's "Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer" topic would be more appropriate. I'll post my replies to his posts in that topic, hopefully tomorrow.

One area where incentives are on- topic is that seriously raising fuel or carbon taxes so that fossil fuels are more expensive than charging anywhere in the country would transform charging infrastructure, especially DC QCing, to a profitable business model. That would provide the incentive for companies to build and operate them without being dependent on government subsidies, or for car manufacturers to build them as a marketing expense, massively increasing the rate at which the infrastructure expands.

As any such major increase would be massively unpopular here and politically impossible for years if not decades, we should at least try to gradually increase the fed. fuel tax to catch up to inflation and then index it to that. It apparently needs to be raised about 15¢/gal. to make up for 28 years of inflation since it was last raised in 1993, so doing it over a 3 (5¢/year) or 5 year (3¢/year) period should be a priority. AFAICT there's no mention of that in the current infrastructure plan, but drivers should be bearing the cost of the wear and year they themselves cause directly. On a related note, my corner gas station just hit $4.00/gal. for the first time in two or three years, presumably still fallout from Texas.

Additionally, as fossil fuel taxes will inevitably decline as the transition to AFVs continues, it will be necessary to start now to implement alternative taxes for AFVs if not all vehicles, preferably (axle) weight-based mileage fees that don't raise privacy issues. As AFVs are heavier than comparable ICEs they'll pay a bit more in that area, but as they'll be paying less or nothing in fossil-fuel taxes that will incentivize buyers to switch without any need for government subsidies.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

johnlocke
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:52 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:01 pm
GetOffYourGas wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:02 am
Surely there is a better thread to have this discussion than one ostensibly about profitability of EV charging.

It has certainly ranged well beyond the basic topic, discussing PHEVs, FCEVs, incentives and taxes, the effect of AVs etc. OTOH, many of these are inter-related. Perhaps the "Are PHEVs a transitional technology" topic would suffice for those sections, assuming someone can prise those out of the rest (and good luck to them!).

One area where incentives are on topic is that seriously raising fuel or carbon taxes so that fossil fuels are more expensive than charging anywhere in the country would transform charging infrastructure, especially DC QCing, from something dependent on government subsidy to a profitable business model. That would provide the incentive for companies to build and operate them without waiting for a handout, massively increasing the rate at which the infrastructure expands.

As any such major increase would be massively unpopular here and politically impossible for years if not decades, we should at least try to gradually increase the fed. fuel tax to catch up to inflation and then index it to that. It apparently needs to be raised about 15¢/gal. to make up for 28 years of inflation since it was last raised in 1993, so doing it over a 3 (5¢/year) or 5 year (3¢/year) period should be a priority. AFAICT there's no mention of that in the current infrastructure plan, but drivers should be bearing the cost of the wear and year they themselves cause directly. On a related note, my corner gas station just hit $4.00/gal. for the first time in two or three years, presumably still fallout from Texas.

Additionally, as fossil fuel taxes will inevitably decline as the transition to AFVs continues, it will be necessary to start now to implement alternative taxes for AFVs if not all vehicles, preferably (axle) weight-based mileage fees that don't raise privacy issues. As AFVs are heavier than comparable ICEs they'll pay a bit more in that area, but as they'll be paying less or nothing in fossil-fuel taxes that will incentivize buyers to switch without any need for government subsidies.
The amount of damage done to roadways by cars is minuscule compared to the damage done by 18 wheel tractor-trailers. The gas tax has always been syphoned off by the state legislature for other projects rather than being used for road repair as originally intended. if you really wanted to be fair, raise the tax on diesel fuel by $2/Gal to pay for repairs. Weight/mileage based taxes don't work unless weight is valued differently for different classes.
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:01 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:52 pm

The amount of damage done to roadways by cars is minuscule compared to the damage done by 18 wheel tractor-trailers. The gas tax has always been syphoned off by the state legislature for other projects rather than being used for road repair as originally intended. if you really wanted to be fair, raise the tax on diesel fuel by $2/Gal to pay for repairs. Weight/mileage based taxes don't work unless weight is valued differently for different classes.

Yes, I know the damage is disproportionate, but there's nothing that says a weight-based scale has to be linear across classes. As for siphoning off of fuel taxes, it's up to the politicians and the people who elect them to see that isn't done. As it is now, the federal Highway Fund has had to be supplemented by general funds for years because it's fallen so far behind inflation. People know the roads have deteriorated, which is why at the state and local levels support for increasing those taxes has generally been strong in the past few years.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:04 am

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:01 pm
One area where incentives are on- topic is that seriously raising fuel or carbon taxes so that fossil fuels are more expensive than charging anywhere in the country would transform charging infrastructure, especially DC QCing, to a profitable business model. That would provide the incentive for companies to build and operate them without being dependent on government subsidies, or for car manufacturers to build them as a marketing expense, massively increasing the rate at which the infrastructure expands.

As any such major increase would be massively unpopular here and politically impossible for years if not decades, we should at least try to gradually increase the fed. fuel tax to catch up to inflation and then index it to that. It apparently needs to be raised about 15¢/gal. to make up for 28 years of inflation since it was last raised in 1993, so doing it over a 3 (5¢/year) or 5 year (3¢/year) period should be a priority. AFAICT there's no mention of that in the current infrastructure plan, but drivers should be bearing the cost of the wear and year they themselves cause directly. On a related note, my corner gas station just hit $4.00/gal. for the first time in two or three years, presumably still fallout from Texas.
Electric cars are not exactly the same as gas cars.

Public charging is not exactly the same thing as gasoline retailing.

Forcing square pegs into round holes isn't often useful.

GRA is focused on trying to recreate the gasoline economy with electric (or hydrogen) cars. The hole is round. The peg is square.

Electric cars with distributed fueling are just nicer. Of course, that only works for 98% (or something like that) of driving. With the exception of the few times when you want to make a long trip, then some sort of centralized fueling is needed. The total package needs to be cost competitive, not the exception. Twice or even four times the price for 2% of the time and half the price for 98% of the time is a good deal. Focusing on the exception is ignoring most of the issue. I pay about $1 per gallon equivalent. What is your corner gas station?

Electric cars make the most sense when they can be L1/L2 charged at home or work. They don't fit nicely into centralized fueling. Round hole. Square peg.

Gasoline taxes to pay for roads and bridges wouldn't pass in much of the country. Washington State has passed such taxes, but we are mostly all wet up here, so don't expect that to work everywhere.

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:01 pm
Additionally, as fossil fuel taxes will inevitably decline as the transition to AFVs continues, it will be necessary to start now to implement alternative taxes for AFVs if not all vehicles, preferably (axle) weight-based mileage fees that don't raise privacy issues. As AFVs are heavier than comparable ICEs they'll pay a bit more in that area, but as they'll be paying less or nothing in fossil-fuel taxes that will incentivize buyers to switch without any need for government subsidies.
Gas cars and diesel trucks don't pay their way in road taxes. Why should EVs?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: ABG:EV charging is not cost competitive at retail stations, says Phillips 66

Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:08 am

johnlocke wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:52 pm
The gas tax has always been syphoned off by the state legislature for other projects rather than being used for road repair as originally intended. if you really wanted to be fair, raise the tax on diesel fuel by $2/Gal to pay for repairs. Weight/mileage based taxes don't work unless weight is valued differently for different classes.
General funds are used for road repair, as not enough is collected in gas taxes. Maybe it was different 50 years ago, when gas taxes collected enough to pay for road repair. But the gas tax hasn't changed, and costs of road repairs have increased. Things change.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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