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If you understood that, DUE TO THE MEASLES VACCINE, *most* Americans are NOT immune to measles, then you would not be surprised by outbreaks. These outbreaks are not caused by "anti-vaxers", but rather they are the simple result of the fact that vaccination does not result in lifetime immunity. As the portion of the population who had measles disease as children dies off, the proportion of our adult population without immunity to measles increases. The eradication has survived based upon those immune adults plus the immunity of some (most?) of the childhood population as well as the success of quarantines to date. But if we fail to quarantine quickly and completely in the future, there will be massive outbreaks of measles in the adult population in this country.
 
RegGuheert said:
If you understood that, DUE TO THE MEASLES VACCINE, *most* Americans are NOT immune to measles
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
RegGuheert said:
If you understood that, DUE TO THE MEASLES VACCINE, *most* Americans are NOT immune to measles, then you would not be surprised by outbreaks. These outbreaks are not caused by "anti-vaxers", but rather they are the simple result of the fact that vaccination does not result in lifetime immunity. As the portion of the population who had measles disease as children dies off, the proportion of our adult population without immunity to measles increases. The eradication has survived based upon those immune adults plus the immunity of some (most?) of the childhood population as well as the success of quarantines to date. But if we fail to quarantine quickly and completely in the future, there will be massive outbreaks of measles in the adult population in this country.

This isn't funny.

Who is getting measles? Unvaccinated kids, mostly.

Where are measles outbreaks happening? Where the vaccination rate is low.

And chickenpox. Get chickenpox as a kid, you may develop shingles as an adult. If you had the vaccine for chickenpox, you are unlikely to get shingles as an adult. But still, get the shingles vaccine.

Rate of shingles increases as you get older, there is a vaccine to prevent it for those over 60.

Know what shingles is? Don't get the vaccine as you don't trust vaccines. This might be funny. But I'd doubt if you would think so. "Spasms of pain at the gentlest touch" just doesn't sound like fun. But it might learn you.

Pain is the most common symptom of shingles.

This can be a constant dull, burning, or gnawing pain, or sharp, stabbing pain that comes and goes.

There may also be a blistering skin rash.

This usually appears in one or more distinct bands, called dermatomes. It may also appear on the face in a band, or break out on a quarter of the face.

These dermatomes correspond to a single sensory nerve. This is why infection causes isolated skin lesions, rather than a body-wide rash, and nerve pain.

Typically, shingles takes the following course:

Acute pain, tingling, numbness, and itching on a specific part of the skin, on a single side of the body.
Between 1 and 5 days after the pain begins, a rash appears.
Red blotches emerge that develop into itchy fluid-filled blisters.
The rash looks like chickenpox but only on the band of skin supplied by the affected nerve.
The rash may involve the face, eyes, mouth, and ears in some cases.
Sometimes, the blisters merge, forming a solid red band that looks like a severe burn.
In rare cases (among people with weakened immune systems) the rash may be more extensive and look similar to a chickenpox rash.
If shingles affects the eye, this is called optical shingles. The virus invades an ophthalmic nerve and causes painful eye inflammation and temporary or permanent loss of vision.
New blisters may appear for up to a week.
Inflammation might be caused in the soft tissue under and around the rash.
People with lesions on the torso may feel spasms of pain at the gentlest touch.
The blisters will gradually dry up and form scabs or crusts within 7-10 days. At this point, the rash is no longer considered infectious.
Minor scarring may occur where the blisters have been.
A shingles episode normally lasts 2-4 weeks.
 
WetEV said:
This isn't funny.
What's not funny is how people spout off about things they haven't done the least bit of research about.
WetEV said:
Who is getting measles? Unvaccinated kids, mostly.
Prove it.

When actual medical research has been done on outbreaks of measles in schools, the results indicated that most of the individuals who contracted measles were vaccinated:

Most-measles-cases-in-schools-are-in-vaccinated-individuals.png


In other words, the truth is the exact opposite than what you have just stated, even among kids, who ARE generally more protected by measles vaccination than adults.

Where are measles outbreaks happening? Where the vaccination rate is low.

WetEV said:
And chickenpox. Get chickenpox as a kid, you may develop shingles as an adult.
Who said anything about chickenpox? Oh, you.

If you think shingles is bad, you should learn about what can you get from measles virus when you are older. It's called SSPE and it is MUCH worse than shingles.

But that has NOTHING to do with the topic of herd immunity to measles and the fact that we are transitioning (have transitioned) from a situation in which babies birth through a couple years and adults were immune to measles to a situation where babies under one year of age are unprotected as are many/most adults. It is a wise change? We will eventually find out.

And then there are the potential benefits of getting measles disease. Unfortunately this topic is very poorly researched, yet we have decided to eradicate the disease anyway.
 
WetEV said:
Who is getting measles? Unvaccinated kids, mostly.
Where are measles outbreaks happening? Where the vaccination rate is low.

Quite so.
Reg may be confusing Measles with Pertussis, or he is just another raving anti-vaxxer.
 
Every scientific study needs a control group.
Giving kids placebo is unethical.
Convincing parents their kids are better off not getting shots, now that's just creative marketing.
 
RegGuheert said:
When actual medical research has been done on outbreaks of measles in schools, the results indicated that most of the individuals who contracted measles were vaccinated
Pay attention to the title:
"paradox"
"Apparent paradox."

If you had read and understood the article you would realize that the results reflected two things: 1, the high vaccination rates in most of those schools. The relative risk of infection in the non-immunized group was sky high, as expected. You do not have to understand these things by the way, it would have been enough to READ the article.

2, The other issue at play in those schools was the large fraction of students who had undergone a sub-standard vaccination: either a single dose, or vaccination below age 15 months.

So lets move forward a few years:
A two-dose vaccination schedule with one dose after 15 months old confers lifelong immunity is ~ 96% of those vaccinated
Herd immunity to measles is achieved at ~ 92% group sero-positivity.
Anti-vaxxers put at risk the ~ 4% of the community who are non-immune despite vaccination, and those unable to undergo vaccination due to medical reasons. They put themselves and their children at risk, and they are burdens on society when they fall ill.

WetEV is correct, since he was talking about the community outbreaks in the USA in the last couple of years. They have indeed occurred in low-vaccination rate communities.

iPlug exposed the joke so I'll admit it: I am a physician. And you Reg, are making a fool of yourself.
 
Rather than leave Reg to spread poppycock, I suggest that laypeople with an interest read
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/meas.html#epi

And a snippet talking about the largest outbreak of Measles in the USA in the modern era of vaccination that occurred in 1989-91 (my BOLD):
Measles Resurgence in 1989–1991
From 1989 through 1991, a dramatic increase in reported measles cases occurred. During these 3 years a total of 55,622 cases were reported (18,193 in 1989; 27,786 in 1990; 9,643 in 1991). In addition to the increased number of cases, a change occurred in their age distribution. Prior to the resurgence, school-aged children had accounted for the largest proportion of reported cases. During the resurgence, 45% of all reported cases were in children younger than 5 years of age. In 1990, 48% of patients were in this age group, the first time that the proportion of cases in children younger than 5 years of age exceeded the proportion of cases in 5–19-year-olds (35%).

Overall incidence rates were highest for Hispanics and blacks and lowest for non-Hispanic whites. Among children younger than 5 years of age, the incidence of measles among blacks and Hispanics was four to seven times higher than among non-Hispanic whites.

A total of 123 measles-associated deaths were reported during this period (death-to-case ratio of 2.2 per 1,000 cases). Forty-nine percent of deaths were among children younger than 5 years of age. Ninety percent of fatal cases occurred among persons with no history of vaccination. Sixty-four deaths were reported in 1990, the largest annual number of deaths from measles since 1971.

The most important cause of the measles resurgence of 1989–1991 was low vaccination coverage.
Measles vaccine coverage was low in many cities, including some that experienced large outbreaks among preschool-aged children throughout the early to mid-1980s. Surveys in areas experiencing outbreaks among preschool-aged children indicated that as few as 50% of children had been vaccinated against measles by their second birthday, and that black and Hispanic children were less likely to be age-appropriately vaccinated than were white children.

In addition, measles susceptibility of infants younger than 1 year of age may have increased. During the 1989–1991 measles resurgence, incidence rates for infants were more than twice as high as those in any other age group. The mothers of many infants who developed measles were young, and their measles immunity was most often due to vaccination rather than infection with wild virus. As a result, a smaller amount of antibody was transferred across the placenta to the fetus, compared with antibody transfer from mothers who had higher antibody titers resulting from wild-virus infection. The lower quantity of antibody resulted in immunity that waned more rapidly, making infants susceptible at a younger age than in the past.
 
RegGuheert said:
When actual medical research has been done on outbreaks of measles in schools, the results indicated that most of the individuals who contracted measles were vaccinated
Pay attention to the title:
"paradox"
"Apparent paradox."

If you had read and understood the article you would realize that the results reflected two things: 1, the high vaccination rates in most of those schools. The relative risk of infection in the non-immunized group was sky high, as expected. You do not have to understand these things by the way, it would have been enough to READ the article.

2, The other issue at play in those schools was the large fraction of students who had undergone a sub-standard vaccination: either a single dose, or single vaccination below age 15 months.

So lets move forward a few years:
A two-dose vaccination schedule with one dose after 15 months old confers lifelong immunity is ~ 96% of those vaccinated
Herd immunity to measles is achieved at ~ 92% group sero-positivity.
Anti-vaxxers put at risk the ~ 4% of the community who are non-immune despite vaccination, and those unable to undergo vaccination due to medical reasons. They put themselves and their children at risk, and they are burdens on society when they fall ill.

WetEV is correct, since he was talking about the community outbreaks in the USA in the last couple of years. They have indeed occurred in low-vaccination rate communities.

iPlug exposed the joke so I'll admit it: I am a physician. And you Reg, are making a fool of yourself.
 
Wouldn’t normally want to blow anyone’s cover, but the anti-vaxxer nonsense is much more serious than routine forum noise and non-sense. It’s dangerous and real lives and health are at stake. Although it was a bit amusing to see how far this would go on - may still go on.
 
SageBrush said:
SageBrush said:
iPlug exposed the joke so I'll admit it: I am a physician. And you Reg, are making a fool of yourself.
No, I'm not. You are demonstrating how ignorant physicians can be about their own field. The fact that you are a physician has no bearing here. You have not produced a single bit of medical data to support your assertions. I have. Immunologists are taught in graduate school that MMR gives lifetime immunity to measles. Unfortunately, the medical studies do not bear this out, just like the data shown above.

By your own words, you are likely one of the "idiots" who is preventing the worldwide eradication of measles because you likely are not immune. And the assumption that we *should* eradicate measles is just that: an assumption. Measles disease *may* have an important function to the human immune system. Unfortunately, how do you get a drug-company-driven medical community to pursue such a possibility. (There has been a small amount of work in this area, but not much.)

If you want to learn about what one research immunologist has uncovered regarding the research into herd immunity against measles, you can start here:
http://www.tetyanaobukhanych.com/herd_immunity.html
 
Durandal said:
Wow, this thread went seriously OT.
Yep. SageBrush was spouting off again...

It seems that our resident physician (and everyone else here) is completely ignorant of the important interaction between measles disease and the human immune system: Measles acts like a "reset cache" button for the immune system, causing it to completely forget everything which it had previously identified as harmful. So is this good or bad? It's certainly bad if you are subsequently exposed to a dangerous disease that you previously had immunity for. OTOH, if the immune system has incorrectly targeted part of the body instead of an invader, then this could be an extremely valuable function.

Here are my predictions:

1) In the near future, drug companies will start marketing measles as a "miracle cure" for autoimmune disorder.

2) Drug companies will never admit that the rising epidemic of autoimmune disorders was caused by preventing measles using the measles vaccine.

That way, they can sell BOTH the measles vaccine AND measles as a treatment for autoimmune disorders.

And, yes, Dr. SageBrush, you read it here first.
 
RegGuheert said:
Measles acts like a "reset cache" button for the immune system, causing it to completely forget everything which it had previously identified as harmful.
BS
 
To offer an on-topic post, I wish to make a correction to the number I posted earlier about the miles of transmission lines in the U.S. I mis-remembered (and mis-converted from km) it as 435,000 miles, but it's actually about 200,000 miles, so 40k miles of new transmission line would be about 20%, not 10%. A 2011 estimate of the cost to build that came in at about $100 billion, so large but doable given the size of our economy, GIVEN THE DESIRE/WILL to do so. Naturally, it would cost more now. Here's a study by Black and Veatch (same eng. firm that has designed Tesla's SC sites and the EA QC sites in California) from 2014, which indicates that the capital cost per mile for a 600kV DC line would be $1.6132 million (see pg. 1-1), not counting the cost of DC converters ($506,779,350/unit):
CAPITAL COSTS FOR TRANSMISSION
AND SUBSTATIONS  
Updated Recommendations for WECC
Transmission Expansion Planning
https://www.wecc.org/Reliability/2014_TEPPC_Transmission_CapCost_Report_B+V.pdf

As with much of the rest of our infrastructure we've been under-maintaining and not adding enough to the existing transmission capacity to keep up with the growth in demand for decades: from 1999-2009 demand increased by 20%, but transmission capacity only increased by 3%. I don't have more recent numbers for that.

And now, feel free to return to vax/anti-vax argument.
 
The anti vacciner thing only has one logical outcome.
It's only going to be cool until the vaccinated population drops below 80 or 90% and then we see a super pandemic of an easily preventable illness.
 
Oilpan4 said:
The anti vacciner thing only has one logical outcome.
It's only going to be cool until the vaccinated population drops below 80 or 90% and then we see a super pandemic of an easily preventable illness.
Prior to widespread vaccination in the USA from the mid 1960s about 500 people died a year, and up to 10% of vulnerable groups (IIRC) suffered complications. In the larger scheme of things, Measles cannot compare to say AGW. It certainly makes sense though for insurance to refuse to pay for medical care of complications in the un-vaccinated without medical justification, and for people who are infected by anti-vaxxers despite their vaccination to seek redress.
 
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