Tesla Semi Truck

[cmwade77]

But you don't live here in SoCal! Where with increasing sales of the Bolt, many charging stations are typically occupied now or vehicles are left unattended. Within the next 6 months to a year, without any increase (not going happen) in the number of charging stations (the network), driving my Leaf beyond its overnight charge (~ 60 miles - 50Ahrs left ) will be highly inconvenient.

True enough.

But I'm not talking about how much charging infrastructure is in place. In the case of electric semi trucks, that is an inexpensive piece which will be built as needed. What I am talking about is the demand charges that will certainly be put in place by utilities once truck depots start to draw megawatts of power from the grid. These will be intended to limit capital expenses which are required to meet the demand, but eventually both more distribution AND new production capacity will be needed to electrify transportation.

Yes, I was aware of that aspect (grid demand), but you also mentioned;

but as more BEVs are fielded they will eventually put strains on the network wherever they are prevalent.

.
That's what (strains on the network) is now becoming the case here in SoCal. Anyway, I agree with your overall comments.

Not really, because per mile driven EVs consume less electricity than gas powered vehicles and considering most of the refining of oil is done in Southern California, as demand for gas goes down, the electricity will be freed up for EVs.

[RegGuheert]

Not really, because per mile driven EVs consume less electricity than gas powered vehicles and considering most of the refining of oil is done in Southern California, as demand for gas goes down, the electricity will be freed up for EVs.

Let's not repeat this oft-stated myth. Here are a few calculations to estimate how much electricity is used to produce each gallon of gasoline:

Some assumptions:
- Each barrel of oil produces about 20 gallons of gasoline
- All oil consumed in the US is refined in the US.
- About 1/2 of the electricity used for pumping oil and refining oil is for the gasoline portion. (The truth is probably lower than this, but this is close enough for these purposes.)

Some data:
- In 2016, the US consume 7.21 billion barrels of oil each year
- In 2016, the US refineries purchased 47.388 billion kWh of electricity
- This site estimates that it takes, on average, 18 kWh to pump a gallon of oil from the ground in CA (back in 2011).

Crunching the number:
- Electricity used to refine each barrel of oil in the US in 2016: 47.388 billion kWh / 7.21 billion barrels = 6.6 kWh/barrel
- Total electricity used to produce and refine each barrel of oil: 24.6 kWh
- Portion of per-barrel electricity used for gasoline: 50% * 24.6 kWh = 12.3 kWh
- Approximate amount of electricity consumed to pump and refine each gallon of gasoline in the US: 12.3 kWh/20 gallons = 0.6 kWh/gallon

The gallon of gasoline will take you between about 15 and 50 miles while the 0.6 kWh of electricity will take you fewer than three miles. In other words, the gasoline allows you to travel 5X to 17X as far as the electricity alone would. Simply put, we need to produce significantly more electricity than we do today in order to convert the transportation sector from oil to electricity.

[GRA]

^^^ Along that line, via IEVS:

Electric Vehicles Could Increase Peak Demand By 3.5 GW In UK By 2030

https://insideevs.com/electric-vehicles ... k-by-2030/

. . . The main insight is that if the growth continues, and plug-in share will exceed 90% of all cars by 2050, peak demand will increased by 18 GW, from a level currently less than 60 GW.

By 2030 the additional peak demand would increase by some 8 GW, but smart charging could limit such a big increase down to a more manageable 3.5 GW.

Another factor that could change the numbers in the future is shared autonomous cars.

Marcus Stewart, head of energy insights at National Grid said:

• “The scenarios are not predictions but they aim to be a catalyst for debate, decision making and change, and provide transparency to the wider industry. . . .”

[GRA]

Further analysis of the Tesla Semi energy requirements, from the IEVS team of George Bower and Keith Ritter:

Tesla Semi Must-Haves: Trailer with Regeneration, Full Aero Treatment

https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-custom ... treatment/

The highway route used for the calc was from the Fremont factory up to the Gigafactory and back. I'd think the typical Gigafactory round-trip haul would more likely start at either the Livermore warehouse or else the Ports of Oakland or Richmond, but Fremont works.

[lorenfb]

True enough.

But I'm not talking about how much charging infrastructure is in place. In the case of electric semi trucks, that is an inexpensive piece which will be built as needed. What I am talking about is the demand charges that will certainly be put in place by utilities once truck depots start to draw megawatts of power from the grid. These will be intended to limit capital expenses which are required to meet the demand, but eventually both more distribution AND new production capacity will be needed to electrify transportation.

Yes, I was aware of that aspect (grid demand), but you also mentioned;

but as more BEVs are fielded they will eventually put strains on the network wherever they are prevalent.

.
That's what (strains on the network) is now becoming the case here in SoCal. Anyway, I agree with your overall comments.

Not really, because per mile driven EVs consume less electricity than gas powered vehicles and considering most of the refining of oil is done in Southern California, as demand for gas goes down, the electricity will be freed up for EVs.

You missed the point! My issue is NOT with electricity capacity nor electricity production efficiency, it's the availability of the charging station
NETWORK, especially here in SoCal as more BEVs, e.g. the Bolts, augment the Leafs, i3s, & Kia Souls. The wait times now on average are about
15 minutes, exclusive of the needed charging times. Sorry for misinterpreting Reg's thought and going off-topic.

[lorenfb]

Daimler is not “asleep-at-the-wheel” when it comes to R&D for battery powered trucks. And Tesla has no “key rent” when it comes to battery
powered trucks as it does for BEVs, i.e. the SC network. Motor technology and electronics are widely known and available to all. Yes, Tesla
appears to maybe have a minor lead in battery technology, but production via Giga hasn’t yet demonstrated where Tesla has a significant lead.

Here're some insightful and objective perspectives on Daimler’s battery truck effort:

With 471,000 trucks sold in 2017 and 22% revenue growth, Daimler is now bringing four all-electric vans and trucks to market, with two more coming soon.
Two of these Daimler electric truck and van models are now going into customer hands, with two more coming within the next year.
Daimler emphasizes durability testing and utilizing existing truck factories in order to hopefully keep the lifecycle economics in the positive column.
Tesla has yet to announce a truck factory, customer trials, or provide evidence of durability testing in the harshest outdoor conditions.
Daimler has clearly came to market first, with multiple electric trucks and vans, but the final verdict is unlikely going to be rendered until 2021-2022.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/415064 ... -2021#alt2

[RegGuheert]

Daimler is not “asleep-at-the-wheel” when it comes to R&D for battery powered trucks.

I agree that they are not. But it appears they are playing catch-up when it comes to the Class 8 trucks. I'm not sure where I read it, but I saw that they have eleven (!) batteries in their Class 8 truck. I've predicted four in the Tesla Semi and I will be very shocked if they have more than eight. Is that important? I think so. I think it shows that Daimler is trying to retrofit batteries into their old truck chassis while Tesla is doing a ground-up design. This is probably one reason why Tesla is able to offer much more range.

Tesla has no “key rent” when it comes to battery powered trucks as it does for BEVs, i.e. the SC network.

Actually, I believe they really do. In fact, they may have more of an advantage here than in the cars.

Why do I say this? Because a BEV truck has a very fast payback time while BEV cars have no way to pay for themselves. But only if you can achieve a level of performance above some minimum threshold. All Teslas to date are luxury items. But a truck is used to generate revenues. And several things will win when it comes to trucks:
1) Price: I don't really believe that Tesla will sell trucks for just a little more than a Model X P100D, but I do think they can probably sell them for $250,000 and make a profit. Maybe. And at that price the Tesla Semi should have high value to customers.
2) Durability: Tesla has invested in finding ways to make their batteries last longer. They also have done an excellent job with their electronics. I believe this is what will "separate the men from the boys" in the area of Class 8 trucks. Those batteries and electronics will take a major beating, day in and day out. I think many players will have real problems with batteries not holding up, but I expect Tesla will be at the top of the class in this regard.
3) Range: Range in a Class 8 battery-electric trick is limited by weight. Weight comes down to two things: weight of the rolling stock and specific energy of the battery pack. Since Tesla is designing the truck from the ground up, their rolling stock should be lighter. This should allow them to install a heavier battery than their competitors. Since they are a leader in LI-ion battery technology, they have a very good chance to be able to deliver a durable battery pack with a very high specific energy.
4) Charging Infrastructure: Tesla is light-years ahead of everyone else in this arena. Do they have a built-out UltraCharger network in place? No. Do they need one? Yes, eventually. So what do they offer today? They have the best high-power charging technology in the world. It is modular, scalable and reliable. They can provide chargers to their truck customers to install on-site at key locations to allow them to deploy immediately on the routes these trucks can handle today. Frankly, refueling may turn out to be a benefit for Tesla Semis versus diesels, at least on the point-to-point routes they can handle today.

Does Daimler have benefits over Tesla? Of course they do:
1) Money: Unlike Tesla, Daimler is not constantly teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. They can weather a lot more adversity than Tesla can.
2) Experience & Reputation: Daimler is already established and known in this industry. They have an existing customer base which will be patient with them as they develop their technology. Tesla will not be afforded nearly as much leeway.

So will Tesla "win" the battery-electric truck market? I don't know, but I predict that if Tesla can stay in business they will offer the product to beat in this space. Everyone will be playing catch-up for a long time to come. In any case, this is an interesting space to watch.

[lorenfb]

Because a BEV truck has a very fast payback time while BEV cars have no way to pay for themselves. But only if you can achieve a level of performance above some minimum threshold. All Teslas to date are luxury items. But a truck is used to generate revenues.

True, but that's case for any OEM that decides to enter the BEV truck market.

1) Price: I don't really believe that Tesla will sell trucks for just a little more than a Model X P100D, but I do think they can probably sell them for $250,000 and make a profit. Maybe. And at that price the Tesla Semi should have high value to customers.

That's speculation on your part, i.e. Tesla hasn't yet proven that they can sell a profitable product.

2) Durability: Tesla has invested in finding ways to make their batteries last longer.

Agreed!

They also have done an excellent job with their electronics.

In what way? They source most of their electronics from established producers. It's not as if they're vertically integrated with a wafer fab,
discrete power MOSFET design group, or an in-house processor design capability. Yes, Tesla does wind their induction motors for the
MS/MX, but so what.

I think many players will have real problems with batteries not holding up, but I expect Tesla will be at the top of the class in this regard.

That assumes that all major EV battery development only resides with Tesla. Besides, you're basing your view only on what has been
produced for low-end BEVs, e.g. the Leaf, & Kia. And that's been a real disaster.

3) Range: Range in a Class 8 battery-electric trick is limited by weight. Weight comes down to two things: weight of the rolling stock and specific energy of the battery pack. Since Tesla is designing the truck from the ground up, their rolling stock should be lighter. This should allow them to install a heavier battery than their competitors. Since they are a leader in LI-ion battery technology, they have a very good chance to be able to deliver a durable battery pack with a very high specific energy.

All future BEV truck producers will be confronted with that and it assumes a major lead for Tesla.

4) Charging Infrastructure: Tesla is light-years ahead of everyone else in this arena. Do they have a built-out UltraCharger network in place? No. Do they need one? Yes, eventually. So what do they offer today? They have the best high-power charging technology in the world. It is modular, scalable and reliable. They can provide chargers to their truck customers to install on-site at key locations to allow them to deploy immediately on the routes these trucks can handle today. Frankly, refueling may turn out to be a benefit for Tesla Semis versus diesels, at least on the point-to-point routes they can handle today.

But will Tesla have the monetary resources to build-out the needed truck network alone? Given Tesla's financial history, it's doubtful.

So will Tesla "win" the battery-electric truck market? I don't know, but I predict that if Tesla can stay in business they will offer the product to beat in this space. Everyone will be playing catch-up for a long time to come. In any case, this is an interesting space to watch.

OK, agreed. Anymore "nitty gritty" discussion without valid OEM updated market data, e.g. field testing, is just more speculation about
the "Tesla Semi Truck".

[RegGuheert]

They also have done an excellent job with their electronics.

In what way? They source most of their electronics from established producers. It's not as if they're vertically integrated with a wafer fab,
discrete power MOSFET design group, or an in-house processor design capability. Yes, Tesla does wind their induction motors for the
MS/MX, but so what.

Fabs? Transistors? I'm sorry, but you are putting forth a non sequitur argument. What you are saying is akin to this statement: "Mark Twain or Charles Dickens were no better than other English-language writers since they used the same language and words as all the other writers."

Simply put, the design of power electronics is an art. Tesla has taken that art to the highest levels of achievement. The ability to produce large quantities of extremely durable electronic devices at low cost which process high power levels at high efficiency is a very difficult achievement.

Some of Teslas designs are truly inspired in my opinion. The best example is their approach to the SuperChargers: They designed a single 10 kW parallelable charger module which is used in both their on-board chargers and their SuperChargers. This has allowed them to optimize and mass-produce just a single unit and thereby achieve the best units in terms of cost, reliability and performance. No one else in the industry has taken such a prudent approach when deploying DCQCs. And guess what? Most of the other offerings are quite unreliable.

I think many players will have real problems with batteries not holding up, but I expect Tesla will be at the top of the class in this regard.

That assumes that all major EV battery development only resides with Tesla. Besides, you're basing your view only on what has been
produced for low-end BEVs, e.g. the Leaf, & Kia. And that's been a real disaster.

Sorry, but I'm not basing my view only on low-end BEVs. I am basing my view on the fact that the Li-ion industry has struggled mightily with achieving long life in their batteries, especially when trying to optimize capacity. Tesla has retained Dr. Jeff Dahn, who has developed perhaps THE cleverest approach toward attacking this problem and frequently identifies and addresses issues which are limiting battery life. And these advances are now going directly into Tesla batteries. After one year of effort, he announced that his team was able to DOUBLE the life of Tesla's batteries. That's pretty impressive for batteries which are already very long-lived when compared with others.

3) Range: Range in a Class 8 battery-electric trick is limited by weight. Weight comes down to two things: weight of the rolling stock and specific energy of the battery pack. Since Tesla is designing the truck from the ground up, their rolling stock should be lighter. This should allow them to install a heavier battery than their competitors. Since they are a leader in LI-ion battery technology, they have a very good chance to be able to deliver a durable battery pack with a very high specific energy.

All future BEV truck producers will be confronted with that and it assumes a major lead for Tesla.

People are just going off of what Tesla's CEO claims when compared with what Daimler's CEO claims for the range of their trucks. Based on that, Tesla trucks will have twice the range or more.

While Elon Musk often misses on price and schedule, he is usually conservative when it comes to range.

[lorenfb]

Simply put, the design of power electronics is an art. Tesla has taken that art to the highest levels of achievement. The ability to produce large quantities of extremely durable electronic devices at low cost which process high power levels at high efficiency is a very difficult achievement.

You're joking, right? Where's the reference that Tesla is designing its "power electronics" in-house? And what do you define as "power
electronics" in reference to Tesla? GM had Delphi, i.e. a major source for design & production of their electronic needs, but sold it.
Maybe 20-30 years ago having an in-house design and manufacturing operation was effective and profitable. But today with the
complexity and advancements of technology, it's of little value to design & manufacture electronic systems & components in-house
for an automotive OEM. Next you'll tell me how Tesla provided the conceptual design and partial layout of the Nvidia GPU. Please!
Or that Tesla designs better MOSFETs, e.g. very low Rds, very high Vds, and very low Td(off), than Infineon/Fairchild, right?
Yes, they probably designed the induction motor controller, but so what. You do remember when Tesla, a number of years ago,
offered their design patents to the automotive OEMs. Most just yawned.

This thread is becoming hyperbolic!