TSLA corporate outlook

[hyperionmark]

More FUD.

It's so obvious you are emboldened any time the stock goes down even a little bit. How are you feeling all the other days? How much have you lost now?

[edatoakrun]

Tesla to report fourth-quarter results Feb. 7

Tesla Inc. TSLA, -2.59% said Thursday it will post its fourth-quarter and full-year 2017 results after the bell on Feb. 7. A webcast with analysts follows at 2:30 p.m. Pacific, the Silicon Valley car maker said in a statement. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $3.04 a share on sales of $3.3 billion in the quarter, which would compare with an adjusted loss of 69 cents a share on sales of $2.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-01-25

Say what you will, he's all in

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/teslas- ... thing.html

Here is the proposal: http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1054948

There is a lot to like about this. Even the rational Tesla detractors should like this as the milestones are based on revenue and profit...

Actually, profit is not a requirement for Musk's furture over-compensation, just as it was not in his prior package.

EBITDA margins (and very low ones at that) along with revenue growth are all that would be required for Musk to increase his ownership of TSLA from todays ~22% to ~34% over the contract period.

Tesla: Elon Musk's Compensation Implies Massively Lower Profitability

The Implied Margins Are Amazingly Low...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/413939 ... fitability

So, as long as TSLA can continue to borrow money, and sell more product at below cost, Musk's (undiluted) share of TSLA will increase by billions of dollars, with each tranche.

Of course, the chances of TSLA meeting all those financial goals are zero, but the announcement appears to be timed to distract from what are likely to be further disastrous financial numbers for Q4, soon to be announced:

Elon Musk’s new compensation plan is a Tesla ‘marketing tool’: Morgan Stanley

Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk’s “ambitious” compensation plan is an “aspirational marketing tool” to attract more talent and capital to the Silicon Valley car maker as the competition to build electric and autonomous vehicles intensifies, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday.

Tesla TSLA, -1.96% and Musk have agreed to a 10-year compensation plan in which his money is tied to the company hitting several benchmarks, including Tesla eventually reaching a market capitalization of $650 billion. The company is currently worth around $60 billion in market value. The pay plan must be approved by shareholders.

The “mega cap” milestones are meant to capture “the spirit of the bull market,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Besides its marketing aspect, the new plan may also be about making sure investors are comfortable with Tesla, which has missed some key self-imposed deadlines with the Model 3...

Tesla last month reported fourth-quarter deliveries that were short of market expectations and rolled back Model 3 production targets for a second time.

The company has not yet set a date to report its fourth-quarter results. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $3.04 a share on sales $3.3 billion. That would compare with an adjusted loss of 69 cents a share on sales of $2.3 billion in the year-ago period...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-01-23

[hyperionmark]

Bought some more stock on this dip!

[cwerdna]

Tesla will turn a profit and DOMINATE their class market within 18 months.

A profitable quarter or a whole year that's profitable beginning 18 months from now (or less)? Let's revisit this in 18 months.

Within 2-3 years their sales will likely reach 1 million per year at great profit margins.

How's that? Their plant only has production capacity for about 500K units/year. IIRC, they haven't even produced 500K vehicles since inception and they're an extremely inefficient automaker in terms of # of employees at the plant vs. cars produced as evidenced by the parking problems there: http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/ ... e-plant-so.

In 2-3 years they're somehow going to be able to ramp up production there + somewhere(s) else to 1 million vehicles/year?

Ford doesn't make big rigs with big profit margins, or overpriced solar roofs,...

Per https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1EY2B9, Tesla didn't even start manufacturing solar roof tiles until last month.

Tesla doesn't make big rigs either.

[webb14leafs]

Tesla will turn a profit and DOMINATE their class market within 18 months.

A profitable quarter or a whole year that's profitable beginning 18 months from now (or less)? Let's revisit this in 18 months.

Within 2-3 years their sales will likely reach 1 million per year at great profit margins.

How's that? Their plant only has production capacity for about 500K units/year. IIRC, they haven't even produced 500K vehicles since inception and they're an extremely inefficient automaker in terms of # of employees at the plant vs. cars produced as evidenced by the parking problems there: http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/ ... e-plant-so.

In 2-3 years they're somehow going to be able to ramp up production there + somewhere(s) else to 1 million vehicles/year?

Ford doesn't make big rigs with big profit margins, or overpriced solar roofs,...

Per https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1EY2B9, Tesla didn't even start manufacturing solar roof tiles until last month.

Tesla doesn't make big rigs either.

Look, I'm all for healthy skepticism. Up until a few months ago I thouth Tesla was an ignorant buy. Once you look at the global market, and Tesla's position in it, it becomes clear that they are still a solid investment. Most major investors are even coming around to this.

If you doubt that Tesla will build 500,000 cars per year within 6-12 months, you are ignoring reality. The manufacturing issues they are experience are typical of a new build. NOONE has ever done this before!!! They are not on the original timeline, but they have a clear path to full scaling.

Also, if you don't think they can double their production capacity in 3 years, then you're being unreasonable. This is a conservative assumption. (Don't bother making the obvious argument points. I've already heard them.)

I'll agree whole heartedly that there is a lot of irrational exuberance associated with Tesla's stock price, but that doesn't mean that Tesla is not a viable company with a bright future. Too much of their future growth is already built in to their current stock price, but that doesn't mean that they won't achieve that growth.

It's fair to question Tesla's viability. Every purchaser of stock should do that with every company they invest in. But, the constant screams that the sky is falling are just ridiculous.

[cwerdna]

Within 2-3 years their sales will likely reach 1 million per year at great profit margins.

How's that? Their plant only has production capacity for about 500K units/year. IIRC, they haven't even produced 500K vehicles since inception and they're an extremely inefficient automaker in terms of # of employees at the plant vs. cars produced as evidenced by the parking problems there: http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/ ... e-plant-so.

In 2-3 years they're somehow going to be able to ramp up production there + somewhere(s) else to 1 million vehicles/year?

Look, I'm all for healthy skepticism. Up until a few months ago I thouth Tesla was an ignorant buy. Once you look at the global market, and Tesla's position in it, it becomes clear that they are still a solid investment. Most major investors are even coming around to this.

If you doubt that Tesla will build 500,000 cars per year within 6-12 months, you are ignoring reality. The manufacturing issues they are experience are typical of a new build. NOONE has ever done this before!!! They are not on the original timeline, but they have a clear path to full scaling.

Also, if you don't think they can double their production capacity in 3 years, then you're being unreasonable. This is a conservative assumption. (Don't bother making the obvious argument points. I've already heard them.)

500K vehicles per year rate within 6 months? Doubtful. Within a year? Maybe.

Getting to 1 million vehicles/year in 3 years? From now or 4 years from now? In 3 years, highly unlikely. They'd have to build at some other plant somewhere else. The Fremont plant doesn't have the production capacity for 1 million/year. Ramping up production isn't just a matter of turning a knob to 10 or 11.

Let's revisit where they are on your claims at the 1 year mark from now and 3 (or 4?) years from now.

[webb14leafs]

How's that? Their plant only has production capacity for about 500K units/year. IIRC, they haven't even produced 500K vehicles since inception and they're an extremely inefficient automaker in terms of # of employees at the plant vs. cars produced as evidenced by the parking problems there: http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/ ... e-plant-so.

In 2-3 years they're somehow going to be able to ramp up production there + somewhere(s) else to 1 million vehicles/year?

Look, I'm all for healthy skepticism. Up until a few months ago I thouth Tesla was an ignorant buy. Once you look at the global market, and Tesla's position in it, it becomes clear that they are still a solid investment. Most major investors are even coming around to this.

If you doubt that Tesla will build 500,000 cars per year within 6-12 months, you are ignoring reality. The manufacturing issues they are experience are typical of a new build. NOONE has ever done this before!!! They are not on the original timeline, but they have a clear path to full scaling.

Also, if you don't think they can double their production capacity in 3 years, then you're being unreasonable. This is a conservative assumption. (Don't bother making the obvious argument points. I've already heard them.)

500K vehicles per year rate within 6 months? Doubtful. Within a year? Maybe.

Getting to 1 million vehicles/year in 3 years? From now or 4 years from now? In 3 years, highly unlikely. They'd have to build at some other plant somewhere else. The Fremont plant doesn't have the production capacity for 1 million/year. Ramping up production isn't just a matter of turning a knob to 10 or 11.

Let's revisit where they are on your claims at the 1 year mark from now and 3 (or 4?) years from now.

I would be happy to revisit this in the future, and I'm open to being wrong about all of these predictions. I'm not an expert. I'm just an investor.

The timeline for building (or adding on) a new plant is less than 3 years. It took VW right around 2.5 years to add a new production facility to the Passat plant in Chattanooga to build the Atlas, and they didn't have the fervent market that Tesla does. This could be even quicker if it was just adding a new line of the same platform, which is what the model Y is supposed to be.

Also need to keep in mind that Tesla builds more than cars. Industrial and residential energy storage is HUGE!!! What's happening in Australia is nothing less than amazing. The price needs to come down substantially to be viable in the US, but as energy prices go up, and battery prices go down it will become a boon.

[jlv]

I thought their next plant was to be the one in Shanghai (assuming they move ahead with what was announced last fall).

[cwerdna]

If you doubt that Tesla will build 500,000 cars per year within 6-12 months, you are ignoring reality. The manufacturing issues they are experience are typical of a new build. NOONE has ever done this before!!! They are not on the original timeline, but they have a clear path to full scaling.

Also, if you don't think they can double their production capacity in 3 years, then you're being unreasonable. This is a conservative assumption. (Don't bother making the obvious argument points. I've already heard them.)

500K vehicles per year rate within 6 months? Doubtful. Within a year? Maybe.

Getting to 1 million vehicles/year in 3 years? From now or 4 years from now? In 3 years, highly unlikely. They'd have to build at some other plant somewhere else. The Fremont plant doesn't have the production capacity for 1 million/year. Ramping up production isn't just a matter of turning a knob to 10 or 11.

Let's revisit where they are on your claims at the 1 year mark from now and 3 (or 4?) years from now.

I would be happy to revisit this in the future, and I'm open to being wrong about all of these predictions. I'm not an expert. I'm just an investor.

The timeline for building (or adding on) a new plant is less than 3 years. It took VW right around 2.5 years to add a new production facility to the Passat plant in Chattanooga to build the Atlas, and they didn't have the fervent market that Tesla does. This could be even quicker if it was just adding a new line of the same platform, which is what the model Y is supposed to be.

Where are these new assembly plant(s) going to be built? Has Tesla started on that journey? What is their expected production capacity?

Per articles like http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/loca ... uv/333283/ give figures like

The recent $900 million expansion opened room for Atlas production, lifting the assembly capacity to 250,000 vehicles per year from 150,000. This averages out to full production capability of almost 21,000 vehicles each month.

http://www.volkswagengroupofamerica.com ... ooga-facts mentions

05/18/2017 – First Customer Atlas Delivered
12/14/2016 – 2018 Atlas Start of Production

I found figures like http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... gen-atlas/ that concur w/that timeline. https://media.vw.com/releases/966 mentions 27,119 Atlases were sold in the US in 2017.

AFAIK, Tesla hasn't even produced 500K vehicles since inception. The Fremont plant only had capacity for 500K units/year when it was NUMMI.

VW Group is one of the largest automakers in the world by sales and production, producing over 10 million vehicles/year.

Fanboy sites like https://electrek.co/2017/06/06/tesla-ne ... factories/ state

Tesla is trying to expand the facility and public transit options have been added, but if Model Y is expected to sell as many or more units than the Model 3 (as Musk claimed in today’s speech), then Tesla will need another facility, likely about as big as the Fremont plant, just to meet Model Y demand.

It takes more than just putting up a building. Equipment needs to be purchased and installed. Equipment needs to be set up and programmed. If processes exist already, they need to be replicated at the new plant. Workers needs to be hired and trained. Suppliers must also up capacity and there's everything that goes on w/maintaining a supply chain. Many test vehicles need to be built first, validated and so on.

Tesla itself reaching 1 million vehicles/year production capacity within 3 years sounds like fantasy-land "magical thinking" to me. Even if it were 4 years, that sounds like a stretch. They'd need to have another plant or two online and possibly outsource/use a contract manufacturer (e.g. Valmet or Magna).

[webb14leafs]

500K vehicles per year rate within 6 months? Doubtful. Within a year? Maybe.

Getting to 1 million vehicles/year in 3 years? From now or 4 years from now? In 3 years, highly unlikely. They'd have to build at some other plant somewhere else. The Fremont plant doesn't have the production capacity for 1 million/year. Ramping up production isn't just a matter of turning a knob to 10 or 11.

Let's revisit where they are on your claims at the 1 year mark from now and 3 (or 4?) years from now.

I would be happy to revisit this in the future, and I'm open to being wrong about all of these predictions. I'm not an expert. I'm just an investor.

The timeline for building (or adding on) a new plant is less than 3 years. It took VW right around 2.5 years to add a new production facility to the Passat plant in Chattanooga to build the Atlas, and they didn't have the fervent market that Tesla does. This could be even quicker if it was just adding a new line of the same platform, which is what the model Y is supposed to be.

Where are these new assembly plant(s) going to be built? Has Tesla started on that journey? What is their expected production capacity?

Per articles like http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/loca ... uv/333283/ give figures like

The recent $900 million expansion opened room for Atlas production, lifting the assembly capacity to 250,000 vehicles per year from 150,000. This averages out to full production capability of almost 21,000 vehicles each month.

http://www.volkswagengroupofamerica.com ... ooga-facts mentions

05/18/2017 – First Customer Atlas Delivered
12/14/2016 – 2018 Atlas Start of Production

I found figures like http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... gen-atlas/ that concur w/that timeline. https://media.vw.com/releases/966 mentions 27,119 Atlases were sold in the US in 2017.

AFAIK, Tesla hasn't even produced 500K vehicles since inception. The Fremont plant only had capacity for 500K units/year when it was NUMMI.

VW Group is one of the largest automakers in the world by sales and production, producing over 10 million vehicles/year.

Fanboy sites like https://electrek.co/2017/06/06/tesla-ne ... factories/ state

Tesla is trying to expand the facility and public transit options have been added, but if Model Y is expected to sell as many or more units than the Model 3 (as Musk claimed in today’s speech), then Tesla will need another facility, likely about as big as the Fremont plant, just to meet Model Y demand.

It takes more than just putting up a building. Equipment needs to be purchased and installed. Equipment needs to be set up and programmed. If processes exist already, they need to be replicated at the new plant. Workers needs to be hired and trained. Suppliers must also up capacity and there's everything that goes on w/maintaining a supply chain. Many test vehicles need to be built first, validated and so on.

Tesla itself reaching 1 million vehicles/year production capacity within 3 years sounds like fantasy-land "magical thinking" to me. Even if it were 4 years, that sounds like a stretch. They'd need to have another plant or two online and possibly outsource/use a contract manufacturer (e.g. Valmet or Magna).

We're both prognosticating. Your skepticism is valid, but I don't share it. Maybe my predictions will be off by a year. I'm willing to admit that's a possibility and live with the financial consequences as an investor.

Are you willing to do the same?