EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:56 am

Joe6pack wrote:I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the Model 3 will not be capable of the fully autonomous driving you describe. By all accounts, Tesla's system uses cameras only which means it will never be capable of fully autonomous driving. Reminds me of the HD ready t.v. I bought in 1997. It is capable of dislaying an HD picture, but's pretty crappy and it lacks all the proper inputs necessary to work with today's set top boxes. The best input it has is S-video - state of the art in the late 90's. The only reason I haven't gotten rid of it is that it weighs a ton and I am too lazy to move it.
Try again.

https://www.tesla.com/autopilot
Eight surround cameras provide 360 degrees of visibility around the car at up to 250 meters of range. Twelve updated ultrasonic sensors complement this vision, allowing for detection of both hard and soft objects at nearly twice the distance of the prior system. A forward-facing radar with enhanced processing provides additional data about the world on a redundant wavelength that is able to see through heavy rain, fog, dust and even the car ahead.

EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:00 am

DanCar wrote:Yeah, that is like saying a twelve year old can drive a car.
If 12 year olds can drive as well as that autopilot did, we should lower the driving age.

I see an awful lot of negativity. Nothing new, though. Tesla has received it for many years, ignored it, and come out with the world's best electric cars, the fastest for door sedan in history, is pushing the envelope on self-driving, etc.

The important thing to remember is they'll do this whether you like it or not.

As for Nissan releasing fully self-driving cars in two years, fat chance on that. Tesla is well ahead of them, already collecting far more data, and already has in production and delivered to consumers a system far ahead of nissan's. Do you truly believe nissan will go from 0 to full autonomous two years from now? And you think tesla fanbois are the clueless ones.

EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:04 am

cwerdna wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote: Here's my take on the model 3. They have promised it will have all self-driving hardware. Already a tesla is capable of total autonomous driving in traffic and with pedestrians. Already. There are videos of it. In the next couple of years Tesla does nothing but iron out more problems, validate, tweak code, pull back more data. Makes it safer so it can be rolled out en masse.
...
At that point, the masses who know so very little about technology except what is shown right in front of their face, they'll finally get it. They will see, and they will want. And tesla will be the only manufacturer who can deliver it. Nissan and others are working on self-driving, but they are behind the curve.
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote: Nobody else is pushing the envelope like Tesla is with autonomous driving. It's going to be the greatest technological accomplishment since the internet or cellular phones. A massive industry disruptor, the benefits of it are hard to overstate.
Gotta love the Tesla hype machine and the confusion they've spread.

Have you looked at the California disengagement reports for Tesla and others via https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detai ... us/testing? Specifically look at https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detai ... eport_2015 and https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detai ... eport_2016.

Regardless of whether the allegations at http://dailykanban.com/2017/02/ca-dmv-r ... ive-video/ are true, the timing of those 2016 Tesla disengagements is right around the time of their publicity stunt video. Notice they had ~182 disengagements for about 550 miles of driving?

Compare that ratio to Waymo (Google's efforts) and the miles they drove. Tesla seems WAY behind Waymo. Waymo's doing https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/25/1541 ... er-phoenix. Where's Tesla something like that?
So all the disengagement reports merely point out that this isn't ready for prime-time, as we all knew. If Waymo is way ahead of tesla and already able to drive people around, this furthers my confidence that Tesla will have a driverless car with near full autonomy in a couple of years, exactly as musk said.

If somebody else significant does beat tesla to market, that's great! I'd love more options.

DanCar
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:18 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:
DanCar wrote:Yeah, that is like saying a twelve year old can drive a car.
If 12 year olds can drive as well as that autopilot did, we should lower the driving age.
Just because a twelve year old did o.k. once doesn't mean the twelve year old should be allowed to drive.
I see an awful lot of negativity. Nothing new, though. Tesla has received it for many years, ignored it, and come out with the world's best electric cars, the fastest for door sedan in history, is pushing the envelope on self-driving, etc.
You have a lot of enthusiasm for Tesla, which is good. People are just pointing out where that enthusiasm isn't valid. If Tesla were ready to drive itself it would be already out. It is not so you can be assured that Tesla driverless technology is not ready. You can also be assured that when Elon says it won't be ready for two years then that is an optimistic estimate, since none of his estimates have been pessimistic and actual product release dates have been years late from first estimates.

If we don't temper the enthusiasm appropriately we end up with Joshua Brown situations.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 06, 2017 11:55 am

DanCar wrote:If Tesla were ready to drive itself it would be already out. It is not so you can be assured that Tesla driverless technology is not ready.
Is this not self-evident, though? Nobody thinks it is ready yet ;)
You can also be assured that when Elon says it won't be ready for two years then that is an optimistic estimate, since none of his estimates have been pessimistic and actual product release dates have been years late from first estimates.

If we don't temper the enthusiasm appropriately we end up with Joshua Brown situations.
That may be so. I know they have already deployed to public vehicles a degree of auto pilot that no other manufacturer has, though, and this auto pilot is already preventing accidents, even when the driver is theoretically paying attention and supposed to be doing it himself. Even if in two years we don't have "go to sleep and wake up at your destination" level of automation, we'll have more than we have now, which won't increase convenience but it will substantially decrease accident rates.

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dgpcolorado
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:57 am

The first production Model 3:

Image

From Fortune:
Who's the lucky owner of the first Model 3? Musk himself—but only after some horse trading. Venture capitalist Ira Ehrenpreis had the rights to the first car—he was the first to place a full deposit for the vehicle—but later gave those rights to Musk as his 46th birthday present. (Musk owns the first Roadster and Model X, but not the first Model S.)
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DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Jul 09, 2017 11:12 am

All this profit and loss talk is predicated on the T 3 averaging $35,000. This won't happen. The T3 will be profitable simply because its average selling price will be MUCH higher.
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cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Jul 09, 2017 2:20 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:All this profit and loss talk is predicated on the T 3 averaging $35,000. This won't happen. The T3 will be profitable simply because its average selling price will be MUCH higher.
No, the supposed starting price of the Model 3 is $35K. That's not the average.

Per http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-tesla-mo ... ted-42000/, Elon alluded to an selling price with an "avg option mix prob $42k".

But yes, some have suggested even higher like https://electrek.co/2017/04/06/tesla-mo ... rice-data/.

I also do wonder how long a "$35K" Model 3 will actually be available. As I've pointed out so many times, the Model S was originally just "under $50K" after $7500 tax credit. Uhh.... that was the 40 kWh model and people following know what happened to that. Currently, the cheapest Model S I can price is $70.7K before tax credit or $63.2K after it. At times, it was worse than this.

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cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sun Jul 09, 2017 2:26 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:So all the disengagement reports merely point out that this isn't ready for prime-time, as we all knew. If Waymo is way ahead of tesla and already able to drive people around, this furthers my confidence that Tesla will have a driverless car with near full autonomy in a couple of years, exactly as musk said.
Just for reference, Google released this video in March 2012: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE.

And from the video's description "Having safely completed over 200,000 miles of computer-led driving,"
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:this auto pilot is already preventing accidents, even when the driver is theoretically paying attention and supposed to be doing it himself.
Maybe so, but in some cases is creating the potential for accidents, as well. Just hang out on "TMC" for long enough to see reports of various bizarre and unexpected behaviors (e.g. veering or jerking left or right for no reason) w/the various software updates Tesla's been pushing out for their AP2 cars.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:28 am

VW has been quick to compare its upcoming first all-electric vehicle built from the ground up, codenamed I.D. Concept, to Tesla’s Model 3.
https://electrek.co/2017/07/14/vw-tesla ... 3-cheaper/

An appropriate name, given its 'planned' intro date! VW needs to produce a competitive volume near term BEV, i.e. most OEMs have BEV "concepts" now.
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