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Looks like about 100 different M3 RCs have now been spotted all over the place. One just showed up in New Zealand.

Someone caught 3 at a Trader Joe's in SF (black, blue, and white): https://imgur.com/gallery/XXi0L
(from https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/6jxtj5/spotted_3_model_3s_in_sf_going_to_the_grocery/)
 
Elon Musk tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

uhAhPS8.jpg
 
scottf200 said:
Elon Musk tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

uhAhPS8.jpg

And then Tesla can begin to lose more money, i.e. the gross profit (GP) for the Model 3 will be much much less
than the combined Model S & X GP. Since the GP of the Model 3 at its proposed low-end price ($35K) is marginal
at best, it becomes questionable at what Model 3 sales volume will result in a GAAP profitability for Tesla and will
Tesla ever achieve it.
 
lorenfb said:
scottf200 said:
Elon Musk tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

And then Tesla can begin to lose more money, i.e. the gross profit (GP) for the Model 3 will be much much less
than the combined Model S & X GP. Since the GP of the Model 3 at its proposed low-end price ($35K) is marginal
at best, it becomes questionable at what Model 3 sales volume will result in a GAAP profitability for Tesla and will
Tesla ever achieve it.
Haha. Too bad they don't sell mainly gas cars like Nissan so they can keep making large profits. One example below $$$ of just US sales. More in 1 month than LEAFs in an entire year :) -- Lot of LEAF owners moved to Tesla...
EZh63On.jpg
 
scottf200 said:
Haha. Too bad they don't sell mainly gas cars like Nissan so they can keep making large profits. One example below $$$ of just US sales. More in 1 month than LEAFs in an entire year :) -- Lot of LEAF owners moved to Tesla...
EZh63On.jpg
It's not just Altimas...

http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/nissan-group-reports-june-2017-u-s-sales has their June 2017 US sales figures. In the US, they sold 143K vehicles (~70.5K cars and 72.8K "trucks"). Only 1,506 of those were Leafs.

http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/IR/INDIVIDUAL/LATESTSALES/2017/ has their global sales but doesn't have June 2017 yet. For May 2017, global Nissan sales were 460K units and Jan to May 2017 was 2.391 million.

From http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/nissan-reports-full-year-results-for-fiscal-year-2016, if you use the exchange rate that's there and my math is right, their fiscal year that ended March 31, 2017 resulted in a net income of about $6.13 billion USD on sales of 5.63 million vehicles.
 
lorenfb said:
scottf200 said:
Elon Musk tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

uhAhPS8.jpg

And then Tesla can begin to lose more money, i.e. the gross profit (GP) for the Model 3 will be much much less
than the combined Model S & X GP. Since the GP of the Model 3 at its proposed low-end price ($35K) is marginal
at best, it becomes questionable at what Model 3 sales volume will result in a GAAP profitability for Tesla and will
Tesla ever achieve it.

And then Tesla will go out of business, you can have your glorious "I Told You So" moment, and we can stop reading your negativity.

OR

Tesla could deliver large quantities of Model 3s, albeit with a slimmer profit margin than Model S/X. The company could become profitable within a year, and your comments will quietly fade into history.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Tesla could deliver large quantities of Model 3s, albeit with a slimmer profit margin than Model S/X. The company could become profitable within a year, and your comments will quietly fade into history.

What "slimmer profit margin", they've continually lost money!
 
lorenfb said:
GetOffYourGas said:
Tesla could deliver large quantities of Model 3s, albeit with a slimmer profit margin than Model S/X. The company could become profitable within a year, and your comments will quietly fade into history.

What "slimmer profit margin", they've continually lost money!

The Model S/X are profitable on a per-unit basis. That is, they cost less to build than the revenue generated in a sale. The Model 3 will also be profitable, but less so.

Tesla as a corporation "loses" money because they are investing heavily in the future. But an investment isn't a loss, hence the quotes.
 
scottf200 said:
Elon Musk tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

uhAhPS8.jpg
If they can actually deliver on this - they would have proved a lot of critics wrong. This looks like about 35k for 2017 - which would all go to employees and CA Tesla owners.
 
evnow said:
If they can actually deliver on this - they would have proved a lot of critics wrong. This looks like about 35k for 2017 - which would all go to employees and CA Tesla owners.

If they can actually deliver 1000 cars in 2017 they will have proved a lot of critics wrong (although the goal posts seem to be constantly changing). On March 31, 2016 if you took a poll I bet even most optimists didn't think a significant number of cars would actually be delivered in 2017, and the naysayers were certainly thinking 2018. Even Elon Musk himself, when he announced the July 2017 target in July 2016 seemed to indicate that it was probably not doable and that it was only a target.

So yes, Tesla deserves a lot of credit to make it to the end of July 2017 and deliver the first 30 vehicles.

Personally I will wait and see what their ramp actually looks like and get a feel for the quality of the build, but yes, this is certainly looking like a victory for Tesla.
 
lpickup said:
evnow said:
If they can actually deliver on this - they would have proved a lot of critics wrong. This looks like about 35k for 2017 - which would all go to employees and CA Tesla owners.

If they can actually deliver 1000 cars in 2017 they will have proved a lot of critics wrong (although the goal posts seem to be constantly changing). On March 31, 2016 if you took a poll I bet even most optimists didn't think a significant number of cars would actually be delivered in 2017, and the naysayers were certainly thinking 2018. Even Elon Musk himself, when he announced the July 2017 target in July 2016 seemed to indicate that it was probably not doable and that it was only a target.

So yes, Tesla deserves a lot of credit to make it to the end of July 2017 and deliver the first 30 vehicles.

Personally I will wait and see what their ramp actually looks like and get a feel for the quality of the build, but yes, this is certainly looking like a victory for Tesla.
Funny you mention polls ...
About a year ago a poll was put on on TMC asking people which of Tesla or GM would sell more EVs in 2017 (Bolt Vs Model 3.) Bolt won ~ 53% of the votes. And mind, this in a forum that is stuffed to the brim with Tesla advocates.

So there is no doubt that Tesla is on target to exceed expectations in their core constituency and to blow their skeptics out of the water.
 
I've got quite a bit of money riding on Tesla doing well, and I suspect that they will deliver as many Model 3 vehicles as the Bolt has sold at the end of the year, if not more. I don't believe that GM is trying very hard. I think that Nissan is seriously stepping up their game, especially with ProPilot, etc. They're going to be limited in sales by the range if it's only a 40kWh battery, though. In any case, I'm more than happy to see GM slapped around, no matter who's doing the slapping.

My main questions on Model 3 are speed of production (meaning will I get the tax credit in 2018?) and cost of options. I will likely choose whatever configuration will get me my Model 3 the soonest, big battery, small battery, dual motor, single motor, I don't care. The only question in my mind is will I have to put down another $1,000 deposit today in order to be able to buy a second Model 3 in 2019?
 
evnow said:
scottf200 said:
Elon Musk tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

uhAhPS8.jpg
If they can actually deliver on this - they would have proved a lot of critics wrong. This looks like about 35k for 2017 - which would all go to employees and CA Tesla owners.
Personally I hope it is a very slow rollout. They need to be prepared for any quality issues that would require service center work as that would overwhelm them. OTA fixes are OK and are one of Tesla huge advantges IMO and experience. Of course, I am reading ** that they are prepping for this by planning on a much larger ranger mobile team (they drive to your home or office). Very exciting to see this unfold and how they are pushing the industry which is responding.


** Title: Tesla Adding Mobile Technicians In Preparation For Model 3
http://insideevs.com/tesla-adding-mobile-technicians-preparation-model-3/
 
Durandal said:
I've got quite a bit of money riding on Tesla doing well, and I suspect that they will deliver as many Model 3 vehicles as the Bolt has sold at the end of the year, if not more. I don't believe that GM is trying very hard.
It seems to me GM built Volt (and now Bolt) for industry observers, insiders & magazines rather than paying customers. In that sense they are halo vehicles rather than serious market efforts.

I think that Nissan is seriously stepping up their game, especially with ProPilot, etc. They're going to be limited in sales by the range if it's only a 40kWh battery, though.
Funny how times have changed. In 2011, if we had got a 40 kWh Leaf, we would have been ecstatic. Tesla was roundly criticized for offering a crippled 40 kWh model and then dropping it.

My main questions on Model 3 are speed of production (meaning will I get the tax credit in 2018?) and cost of options. I will likely choose whatever configuration will get me my Model 3 the soonest, big battery, small battery, dual motor, single motor, I don't care.
Same here - whatever comes earliest - unless tax credit is already finished.

Here is the updated article on when the tax credits are likely to phase out.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/04/federal-ev-tax-credit-phase-quarter-tesla-becoming-clear-sort/

Federal-EV-Tax-Credit-Scenarios-for-Tesla-updated-570x172.png


So, it seems through Q2 of '18 we'll get tax credit. I'm optimistic that I'll get my Model 3 (west coast, reserved in line) before H2 is over.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Tesla as a corporation "loses" money because they are investing heavily in the future. But an investment isn't a loss, hence the quotes.
They are losing money. What are these investments you speak of that you claim are helping contribute to putting them in the red?
 
Durandal said:
My main questions on Model 3 are speed of production (meaning will I get the tax credit in 2018?) and cost of options. I will likely choose whatever configuration will get me my Model 3 the soonest, big battery, small battery, dual motor, single motor, I don't care. The only question in my mind is will I have to put down another $1,000 deposit today in order to be able to buy a second Model 3 in 2019?
See the Model 3 Delivery Estimator spreadsheet I linked to in this post: http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&start=720#p496561

Based upon my remaining reservation, I'm still looking at Feb 2018 delivery for a 75D, and that is still likely to qualify for the full $7500 tax credit. If I wasn't an owner, it would push my delivery back by a month (March 2018), and I'd still be getting the full tax credit.

(I had 2 reservations, but I canceled one when I bought the S)
 
cwerdna said:
GetOffYourGas said:
Tesla as a corporation "loses" money because they are investing heavily in the future. But an investment isn't a loss, hence the quotes.
They are losing money. What are these investments you speak of that you claim are helping contribute to putting them in the red?

Gigafactory, Supercharger network expansion, Expansion of service centers and mobile ranger fleet, and the creation and expansion of the Model 3 assembly line itself to name a few.

There are also some dubious investments not directly benefiting their car business such as the Solar City acquisition and the Powerpack/Powerwall product lines. I think it's probably somewhat fair to criticize them on those grounds, but again, those aren't directly related to their car business's ability to make a profit on a vehicle anyway, which is what's being debated here.
 
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