I read the density should increase by a factor of 2x so cut that to weight by half.Oilpan4 said:Today 600 miles of range means the car would literally have a ton of batteries in it.
Price stays about the same per kg. Halves per kWh. Putin will be pissed, don't tell him.Oilpan4 said:Doubling density seems reasonable.
But does it scale?
For example if density doubles how much does price price increase?
If it's a 10 or 20% that's good for evetything if it increases prices 50% to double that's still good but only for mobile phones, laptops cordless tools, not so good for cars and trucks.
WetEV said:Price stays about the same per kg. Halves per kWh. Putin will be pissed, don't tell him.Oilpan4 said:Doubling density seems reasonable.
But does it scale?
For example if density doubles how much does price price increase?
If it's a 10 or 20% that's good for evetything if it increases prices 50% to double that's still good but only for mobile phones, laptops cordless tools, not so good for cars and trucks.
Must really suck to work for him.Oilpan4 said:According to who?
Putin is always pissed off about something, nothing new there.
Look at past battery costs and densities...Oilpan4 said:I would love to have a 120kwh, 900lb leaf battery that costs the same as a 62kwh battery but it sounds too good to be true if happening any time soon.
Moore's law worked for quite a while. Betting against it would have been a very bad idea.Oilpan4 said:I know about past improvements.
So you claim to know the future?
WetEV said:Moore's law worked for quite a while. Betting against it would have been a very bad idea.Oilpan4 said:I know about past improvements.
So you claim to know the future?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effectsGRA said:WetEV said:Moore's law worked for quite a while. Betting against it would have been a very bad idea.Oilpan4 said:I know about past improvements.
So you claim to know the future?
Moore's Law is very much an exception when it comes to technological development, and battery development has never come anywhere close to achieving that rate of improvement.
GRA said:WetEV said:Moore's law worked for quite a while. Betting against it would have been a very bad idea.Oilpan4 said:I know about past improvements.
So you claim to know the future?
Moore's Law is very much an exception when it comes to technological development, and battery development has never come anywhere close to achieving that rate of improvement.
WetEV said:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effectsGRA said:WetEV said:Moore's law worked for quite a while. Betting against it would have been a very bad idea.
Moore's Law is very much an exception when it comes to technological development, and battery development has never come anywhere close to achieving that rate of improvement.
SOP. Faster rate sure. For example, 1956 for a price that had a lot of zeros, 5MB of disk:
https://thenextweb.com/shareables/2011/12/26/this-is-what-a-5mb-hard-drive-looked-like-is-1956-required-a-forklift/
I've got a printed advertisement for a 5 MB disk drive from about 1980. Original printed advertisement on real paper from a press... Before computer printers were cheap and common. A lot smaller and a lot cheaper. About a thousand.
And the best selling drive at Amazon is 2TB for $55. That's $0.14 for 5MB.
goldbrick said:battery tech has always been a classic counter-example of a tech that didn't follow Moore's law or an equivalent.
Battery prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 87% in real terms to $156/kWh in 2019. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh,
WetEV said:goldbrick said:battery tech has always been a classic counter-example of a tech that didn't follow Moore's law or an equivalent.
Really?
Battery prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 87% in real terms to $156/kWh in 2019. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh,
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/12/20191204-bnef.html
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