GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 04, 2021 4:17 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 5:50 am
GRA wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:56 pm
Personally, I've come to the conclusion that a BEV with an acceptable sacrifice of convenience for road trips will need an 800V or more pack,
Which just goes to show you understand the determinants of EV charging time about as well as you understand the price curve of new technology.

Why, thank you, I agree. Since any given battery cell can only take so much charging current, reducing the charging time for the pack as a whole requires higher voltage. In order to be seen as a reasonable replacement by most people for liquid fuels, I think the 20-80% charge time has to be no more than 20 minutes, but preferably 10 minutes or less (with adequate range also). To eliminate virtually all extra time spent charging we want to get the 0-100% charge time down to that level, with a battery that can take that without degradation.


https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/co ... s_model_3/

https://insideevs-com.cdn.ampproject.or ... nalysis%2F
Last edited by GRA on Tue May 04, 2021 7:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 04, 2021 4:27 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:00 am
GRA wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:56 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 8:48 pm
Development of new technology isn't welfare.
That's not what we're talking about
Development of new technologies is what I am talking about. What are you talking about?

I answered that in the very next paragraph you quoted.

WetEV wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:00 am
GRA wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:56 pm
In this case, though, it's subsidising inessential technology that fell into the "toys for the well-off" category. With the 2022 Bolt's price drop, we are just now getting into the era when BEVs start to have the necessary price and performance to be practical for a broad spectrum of buyers, and we're still lacking the needed infrastructure.
Exactly how does the cost (and the price) drop?

(edit typo)

Do you think battery development would have stopped, given all the other things we use them for? Of course not. Prices would be higher now, but then that would cause us to use them more judiciously, in HEVs/PHEVs. We're trying to reduce emissions as much as possible. If we had achieved the same take rate by now for HEVs + PHEVs as Europe has just for the former, we'd have reduced GHG emissions by a far greater amount that trying to push BEVs on a so far mainly uninterested public. That necessarily assumes that we'd have put effective incentives in place to get more people to switch voluntarily, primarily but not solely higher fuel prices.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 04, 2021 8:21 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 4:27 pm
Do you think battery development would have stopped, given all the other things we use them for? Of course not.
Stopped? Probably not. Slowed? Of course.

So why again, just how would slowing battery development be a good thing? I'm not following that.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 04, 2021 10:06 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 8:21 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 4:27 pm
Do you think battery development would have stopped, given all the other things we use them for? Of course not.
Stopped? Probably not. Slowed? Of course.

So why again, just how would slowing battery development be a good thing? I'm not following that.
Yes, it would have slowed, so we could have spent the money more carefully. There's lots of different ways to reduce GHGs; pushing BEVs ahead of their time probably wasn't the least costly way to achieve a given reduction..
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 05, 2021 6:31 am

GRA wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 10:06 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 8:21 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 4:27 pm
Do you think battery development would have stopped, given all the other things we use them for? Of course not.
Stopped? Probably not. Slowed? Of course.

So why again, just how would slowing battery development be a good thing? I'm not following that.
Yes, it would have slowed, so we could have spent the money more carefully. There's lots of different ways to reduce GHGs; pushing BEVs ahead of their time probably wasn't the least costly way to achieve a given reduction..
I doubt it. That we would have spent the money more carefully. The big difference between could and would.

Every process takes time. Henry Ford was able to make the Model T a cheap success because of the expensive cars that came before it.
WetEV
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 05, 2021 6:38 am

GRA wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 4:17 pm
In order to be seen as a reasonable replacement by most people for liquid fuels, I think the 20-80% charge time has to be no more than 20 minutes, but preferably 10 minutes or less (with adequate range also). To eliminate virtually all extra time spent charging we want to get the 0-100% charge time down to that level, with a battery that can take that without degradation.
It is interesting how someone that has driven an EV for a few days is the source of so much understanding of EVs.

Us long term EV drivers don't know anything.
WetEV
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SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 05, 2021 6:55 am

The only bottom-up approach I can think of from a car manufacturer is GM with the moderately expensive Bolt, and that has been a failure. Even GM seems to realize it since they are pivoting to their luxury Cadillac line for electrification. GRA may get to see the effect of subsidy on expensive cars if the federal tax credit returns to GM.

In any case though, the GRA argument that subsidies of expensive cars do not increase sales is transparently wrong. Both GM in the case of the Bolt, and Tesla for all its cars, reduced prices when the tax credit lapsed. Meaning that manufacturers set prices that take tax credits into account: msrp is higher when credits are available, and lower when they are not. One can question whether sending additional revenue to manufacturers accelerates the transition but it would be a short discussion.

If the price did not affect sales then manufacturers of every luxry car would simply raise the price to pad profits. Why does GM sell a luxury ICE truck for $70k rather than $80k ? Why not $90k ? The short answer is that 'rich' people, while able to 'afford' spending more, seek to maximize value -- just like everybody else.
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 05, 2021 7:34 am

SageBrush wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 6:55 am
The only bottom-up approach I can think of from a car manufacturer is GM with the moderately expensive Bolt, and that has been a failure.
Failure is too strong of word. Bolt is outselling all of the Cadillac models other than the Escalade.
WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 05, 2021 4:05 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 7:34 am
SageBrush wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 6:55 am
The only bottom-up approach I can think of from a car manufacturer is GM with the moderately expensive Bolt, and that has been a failure.
Failure is too strong of word.
Failure, as in unprofitable to GM at market prices and therefore relegated to compliance car status.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 05, 2021 5:46 pm

If the Bolt drivetrain is used successfully in future EVs with better bodies, then it will have been a worthwhile effort for GM.
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