jjeff
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 03, 2021 4:17 am

Triggerhappy007 wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 3:28 am
GRA wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:06 pm
I've said before that if an AWD PHEV CUV with a smallish battery pack had been available in 2016 or 17, I would have gone for it despite my wanting to go full ZEV. But neither GM or anyone else built that car.
Mitsubishi did, the Outlander PHEV. It had been out since 2013 and the US got it in 2017.
True but in my case it had too many drawbacks to make me pull the trigger. For me the biggest drawback was rather poor ICE MPG, especially highway. In my case I wanted a vehicle to not only replace one of my Leafs but also older 50 mpg Prius for our longer highway trips and in that case I'd want a vehicle that could get better than 30 mpg not plugging in. Another issue was it's relatively short EV range, I mean my Leaf has a short-range too but much better than mid-20s for EV range. Lastly the brand, I'm just not convinced the Mitsubishi is a reliable brand. I keep my vehicles for 10+ years and am just not sold a Mitsubishi would make that mark without having too many issues. Both my '04 Scion and our '07 Prius have had very little issues which is why I put down a deposit on a Toyota that can get ~40 miles EV and ~40 mpg on the highway. Unfortunately lots of others must feel as I do as the waiting list was 2+ years, until then we'll get by with 2 cars and pay for 2 sets of tabs and 2 insurance policies, looking forward to the Rav4 Prime.
2012 SL purchased used 2/'16
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SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 03, 2021 5:37 am

GRA wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:06 pm
If the cars were simply too expensive to compete and didn't provide any perceived advantage to more than a tiny niche of buyers at the time, which was arguably the case, then it was too early to try and we should have done something else
Your thinking is magical. ALL tech starts out expensive and follows a price and improvement, typically 'S' curve. Your presumption that one can simply wait until the first EVs built to scale are $20k, GRA approved cars is ridiculous. Moreover, it is obvious that a desire to accelerate the transition happens during the early, flat part of the 'S' curve. When people are spending $80k+ on a car with a 10% gov push. Not later when they are spending $20k and demanding a 40% gov push.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 03, 2021 6:30 pm

Triggerhappy007 wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 3:28 am
GRA wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:06 pm
I've said before that if an AWD PHEV CUV with a smallish battery pack had been available in 2016 or 17, I would have gone for it despite my wanting to go full ZEV. But neither GM or anyone else built that car.
Mitsubishi did, the Outlander PHEV. It had been out since 2013 and the US got it in 2017.

Unfortunately, the Outlander was big and clumsy, and got the same or worse HWY mpg as my current car. Since I don't commute by car an Outlander would have cost me a few tens of thousands for essentially no efficiency improvement over my current car, and 20 miles of rarely used AER. That failed the value for money test by miles.

In order to be worth the switch, a PHEV needed to get about 40 mpg HWY for me.

Edit. I see jjeff and I had similar issues with the Outlander, and made similar decisions.
Last edited by GRA on Mon May 03, 2021 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 03, 2021 8:16 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 5:37 am
GRA wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:06 pm
If the cars were simply too expensive to compete and didn't provide any perceived advantage to more than a tiny niche of buyers at the time, which was arguably the case, then it was too early to try and we should have done something else
Your thinking is magical. ALL tech starts out expensive and follows a price and improvement, typically 'S' curve. Your presumption that one can simply wait until the first EVs built to scale are $20k, GRA approved cars is ridiculous. Moreover, it is obvious that a desire to accelerate the transition happens during the early, flat part of the 'S' curve. When people are spending $80k+ on a car with a 10% gov push. Not later when they are spending $20k and demanding a 40% gov push.

Of course they start out expensive - all new high-tech does. But if it meets a large enough demand people will buy it without subsidies, and the price will drop over time. With gas prices where they were in 2010-2012, it's arguable that there simply was no demand beyond the wealthy for PEVs, so incentivising HEVs or some other field might have made more sense. Do you think we should have gicmven subsidies to the well-off to lease EV1s, despite them having no prospect of ever being mass market without far better batteries?

Here's the thing. Should we give welfare to the well-off, or those who are struggling with the necessities? Who benefits more for the same amount of money spent?

We know from the stimulus checks that the better-off put them into savings or invested them while those at the lower end paid rent, bought food, paid utility and medical bills etc. There was also a $75k single person income cap for the first round. If providing subsidies for non-essentials for the wealthy is appropriate, as you seem to believe, then instead of an income cap there should have been an income floor. If he'd gotten divorced last year, I'm sure that extra $3,200 would have made a HUGE difference to Bill Gates.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 03, 2021 8:48 pm

GRA wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 8:16 pm
Here's the thing. Should we give welfare to the well-off, or those who are struggling with the necessities? Who benefits more for the same amount of money spent?
Development of new technology isn't welfare.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 03, 2021 10:56 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 8:48 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 8:16 pm
Here's the thing. Should we give welfare to the well-off, or those who are struggling with the necessities? Who benefits more for the same amount of money spent?
Development of new technology isn't welfare.

That's not what we're talking about I have no problem with subsidising RD&D, and even giving a manufacturer a little help getting started, ala' Tesla's loan for Fremont.

In this case, though, it's subsidising inessential technology that fell into the "toys for the well-off" category. With the 2022 Bolt's price drop, we are just now getting into the era when BEVs start to have the necessary price and performance to be practical for a broad spectrum of buyers, and we're still lacking the needed infrastructure.
The next step on the way to mass market practicality (assuming the necessary charging infrastructure) will be 300 miles for $30k, with a full selection of models. Beyond that, 400 miles for $25k.

Personally, I've come to the conclusion that a BEV with an acceptable sacrifice of convenience for road trips will need an 800V or more pack, so I'll definitely be paying attention to the Ionic5/EV6, although they're both a bit too long and probably lack the range I want, as well as likely too pricey.

Once solid-state packs arrive and get into mass production, it will likely just be price that needs improvement. I'm hopeful that one way or another we'll get where we need to be by 2030.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 04, 2021 5:50 am

GRA wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:56 pm
Personally, I've come to the conclusion that a BEV with an acceptable sacrifice of convenience for road trips will need an 800V or more pack,
Which just goes to show you understand the determinants of EV charging time about as well as you understand the price curve of new technology.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 4383
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Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 04, 2021 7:00 am

GRA wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:56 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 8:48 pm
Development of new technology isn't welfare.
That's not what we're talking about
Development of new technologies is what I am talking about. What are you talking about?

GRA wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 10:56 pm
In this case, though, it's subsidising inessential technology that fell into the "toys for the well-off" category. With the 2022 Bolt's price drop, we are just now getting into the era when BEVs start to have the necessary price and performance to be practical for a broad spectrum of buyers, and we're still lacking the needed infrastructure.
Exactly how does the cost (and the price) drop?

(edit typo)
Last edited by WetEV on Tue May 04, 2021 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
WetEV
#49
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dmacarthur
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 04, 2021 7:55 am

Once solid-state packs arrive and get into mass production, it will likely just be price that needs improvement.
Just beginning to hear about these: capacitor batteries? what are they made of, and what will be the limitations?
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WetEV
Posts: 4383
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 04, 2021 8:43 am

dmacarthur wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 7:55 am
Once solid-state packs arrive and get into mass production, it will likely just be price that needs improvement.
Just beginning to hear about these: capacitor batteries? what are they made of, and what will be the limitations?
https://insideevs.com/news/438664/solid ... ries-2021/

Looks very promising, but isn't yet proven technology.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
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