WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 29, 2021 7:29 am

GRA wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:12 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 9:35 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 4:47 pm
The issue with QC is demand charges, and that won't be solved until cheap energy storage is available.
John McCarthy wrote:He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense
Here's an example of demand charges in his area provided by dgpcolorado a couple of months back:
The three phase demand rate is $47.25/month + 7.09¢/kWh + $17/kW demand charge (based on the maximum draw in any fifteen minute period in a month). This is likely the tariff that would be used for the DCFC station.
That's an example of demand charges.

GRA wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:12 pm
I expect that 800V+ packs will become the norm, which means the typical QC will be averaging say 200kW over a 15 minute period, with say 3-4 hours of near-continuous use during peak-demand. Now put 5 or 10 of them at a single road-trip site used simultaneously, to reflect Friday night or Sunday/Monday afternoon demand, with limited use the rest of the week. How much battery storage will you need, assuming you charge the pack off-peak the rest of the week? Assume $100/kWh Capex for the pack, and a five-year replacement cycle. Add BoS, construction, O&M, interest, overhead, profit, recycling costs etc. to taste, and show that you can sell charging for equal or less than the price of gas, something which, AFAICT, no charging network is able to do yet, at least if they have to build these stations with their own/borrowed money instead of government subsidies.
That's an example of hand waving.

John McCarthy wrote:He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense
GRA wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:12 pm
Feel free to waste your time doing the math; I'm not about to waste mine.
WetEV
#49
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 29, 2021 4:36 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 7:29 am
GRA wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:12 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 9:35 pm

Here's an example of demand charges in his area provided by dgpcolorado a couple of months back:
The three phase demand rate is $47.25/month + 7.09¢/kWh + $17/kW demand charge (based on the maximum draw in any fifteen minute period in a month). This is likely the tariff that would be used for the DCFC station.
That's an example of demand charges.

Uh, yes. What clued you in, the statement "Here's an example of demand charges in his area"?

WetEV wrote:
Sat May 29, 2021 7:29 am
GRA wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:12 pm
I expect that 800V+ packs will become the norm, which means the typical QC will be averaging say 200kW over a 15 minute period, with say 3-4 hours of near-continuous use during peak-demand. Now put 5 or 10 of them at a single road-trip site used simultaneously, to reflect Friday night or Sunday/Monday afternoon demand, with limited use the rest of the week. How much battery storage will you need, assuming you charge the pack off-peak the rest of the week? Assume $100/kWh Capex for the pack, and a five-year replacement cycle. Add BoS, construction, O&M, interest, overhead, profit, recycling costs etc. to taste, and show that you can sell charging for equal or less than the price of gas, something which, AFAICT, no charging network is able to do yet, at least if they have to build these stations with their own/borrowed money instead of government subsidies.
That's an example of hand waving.

Make up any numbers you want for each and every unknown variable years in the future, and then put as much value on the results as they deserve. Which is just about zilch. Even the companies who get paid to do such forecasting spread over years as to when various things, like packs at $100/kWh, will appear (assuming they do), and that one's almost assured of happening, unlike many of the other advances that are far more uncertain but will radically alter the results if/when they succeed. So, knock yourself out devoting as much of your time over the next several years to that as you like, working from far less info than those companies have.

John McCarthy wrote:He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense
GRA wrote:
Thu May 27, 2021 11:12 pm
Feel free to waste your time doing the math; I'm not about to waste mine.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 29, 2021 4:46 pm

John McCarthy wrote:He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense
Checking your assumptions is always worthwhile.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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jlsoaz
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 31, 2021 11:25 am

WetEV wrote:
Wed May 26, 2021 2:44 am
[....] Getting back to the future of PHEVs, will the current market for PHEVs persist? Answer isn't knowable with current data, as far as I can see.
[...]
As I've attempted to put forth previously (and I"m not sure if anyone responded on this point), in the here and now, the availability of and market for PHEVs is not just dependent on demand and the different factors that influence that demand (including cost of fuel, subjective intangibles, onboard real estate and interior volume, costs of maintenance, etc.) It is also impacted somewhat significantly, in my opinion, by supply. Some of the automakers were trying to make PHEVs work, at least as a transitional tech, in part (I think) because it allows them to continue with some of their present model lines, and engine and transmission technologies. It may also add one or two generations (or more) of vehicles to the transition to low-carbon, and thus be a positive for them. There could be other factors such as if they can "spread" more kWh across more of the early generation vehicles rather than having to confine themselves to just making limited numbers of (relatively) long-range BEVs at first.

So, there is (or was) a significant incentive there. Note that I don't personally think that making PHEVs is, on balance, a great idea, even with the points mentioned above. I kind of admired GM on the isolated point that they paid some dues with the Volt, and in the end decided to leave it behind and go all-in on BEV. But I do think some case can be made, if what we're trying to do is develop opinions on a somewhat challenging topic with different pros and cons and, regardless of what we think is rational or economically wise, or even honors the substantial less-tangible elements that may be there in the final determining factors in the vehicle markets, in the end, the suppliers and the demanders (and the regulators) will do what they will do..... the final market numbers will (in my view) not always t always conform to the way we think it should work out, no matter how defensible-seeming is our logic.

The case that PHEVs will last longer, or even that ICV-PHEVs could stick around for decades, is in my view strengthened (to a limited extent) if we hypothesize the near-term introduction to the market of legitimate high-volume somewhat affordable zero-carbon fuels. There are some complications (such as the fact that an ICV then also competes with the ICV-PHEVs) but just noting this.

Too much volume in this thread for me to follow everything, but I do want to mention a couple of my major complaints against the Volt PHEV I had were:
a) cramped interior (real estate for two powertrain technologies can contribute to this issue)
b) retention of Rube Goldberg vibe from old ICV tech.

While some of this is addressed in more modern PHEVs (I'm sure there are excellent interior volume high power PHEVs coming to market), on balance they contribute to my skepticism. In the end, I don't know with confidence, but am leaning somewhat against PHEV long-lastingness.

I'm not sure what it is about paying increased attention to some of the comlexities of the supplier point of view that seems to elude some market analyses, but I do think that is the case. I think it's also been a factor as to why over the last 25+ year auto industry analysts have not more fully understood the factors at work, as to BEVs coming to market.



I'm not sure, why, but the point of view of the supplier seem to be downplayed or ignored sometimes in some EV market discussions.
2015 Model S 70 Oct 2020 -
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon May 31, 2021 11:48 am

a) cramped interior (real estate for two powertrain technologies can contribute to this issue)
In the case of the Volt, this wasn't the problem. They problem was that they reused the Camaro show car body for the Volt show car, and then decided to keep a similar look with the production model. This was stupid. Had GM instead gone with a body with more interior space, the Volt would have been a success. Had they gone with such a body PLUS a second, CUV or SUV version using the same drivetrain, it would have been a runaway hit. For whatever reason, GM always finds a way to sabotage their electrified vehicles. The latest example is the Bolt "EUV" with its cramped cargo area and lack of an AWD option. Now that GM has committed - supposedly - to making EV vehicles as their mainstay, they are going to have to stop this crap, and start producing EVs that have the forms and functions that people want. They could learn from Ford in this area, despite Ford's later start.
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SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:56 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 11:48 am
They problem was that they reused the Camaro show car body for the Volt show car, and then decided to keep a similar look with the production model. This was stupid.
I disagree.

GM had the problem of the other legacy USA manufacturers: they had fed their loyal customers a steady diet of fossil fuel propaganda for so long that they had little marketing room to move a large number of them to EV. They decided that a sports-car-ish model with lots of torque would find an early adopter narrow demographic within the base. They followed Lutz, and while I think Lutz is mostly a fool, I don't doubt he knows his customer base.

The early adopters of the Volt did not complain about the interior space; that only popped up years later when used car buyers found the car did not meet their ergo demands and the second wave of buyers failed to materialize.

A re-introduction of PHEV today in a CUV format has merit I think, because the tech is now kinda sorta mainstream in the public eye. The tricky part will be competing against the RAV4 Prime. And no matter what they do, they have an ICE mentality customer base.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:40 pm

The early adopters of the Volt did not complain about the interior space; that only popped up years later when used car buyers found the car did not meet their ergo demands and the second wave of buyers failed to materialize.
The early adopters who bought or leased a Volt are a (small) self-selected group that did not consider the cramped interior a deal breaker because they made the deal. The above is like saying that the 1st gen Leaf was not ugly because the people who bought or leased them did not think so. I followed the development of the Volt closely, and the wave of excitement that forced GM to build the car was quickly followed by a wave of disappointment at the body used for production. There was still excitement at the car's capabilities, but it was despite the cramped interior, and that held back sales.
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jlsoaz
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:06 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:40 pm
The early adopters of the Volt did not complain about the interior space; that only popped up years later when used car buyers found the car did not meet their ergo demands and the second wave of buyers failed to materialize.
The early adopters who bought or leased a Volt are a (small) self-selected group that did not consider the cramped interior a deal breaker because they made the deal. The above is like saying that the 1st gen Leaf was not ugly because the people who bought or leased them did not think so. I followed the development of the Volt closely, and the wave of excitement that forced GM to build the car was quickly followed by a wave of disappointment at the body used for production. There was still excitement at the car's capabilities, but it was despite the cramped interior, and that held back sales.
Your reasoning is good in my opinion. It's been awhile since I thought about it, but in 2012 I went to a Chevy dealer to lease a Volt and sat inside the vehicle and decided against it, called my Nissan dealer and leased a Leaf. There were too many factors that went into my decision (I probably way over-thought it) but the dealbreaker for me was the cramped interior of the Volt. If I had it to do over again, I would definitely lease the Volt, but at the time, that's the decision I made.

Some time later, I was researching the Volt and thought I saw something about the Cruze being roughly the same, but a bit more interior volume, as the PHEV powertrain took up more space?

I'm also remembering now that some years later when I was browsing at a Ford lot, as to the Fusion PHEV, the useable trunk space was smaller because of the battery? Something like that.

Anyway, at this point, onboard real estate use is probably a bit more flexible, with both BEV and PHEV moving into mid- and large- sized vehicle territory without so much fanfare. So, I suppose this factor of it being a slight negative for PHEV versus BEV is not a super big deal, but I'm just throwing it on the table that it's still a factor among many. Automakers do think about the use of space under the hood and throughout the vehicle, and of course many drivers like to take into consideration interior volume specs and nuances.
2015 Model S 70 Oct 2020 -
2013 Volt - Oct 2017- Oct 2020
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:29 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 11:48 am
a) cramped interior (real estate for two powertrain technologies can contribute to this issue)
In the case of the Volt, this wasn't the problem. They problem was that they reused the Camaro show car body for the Volt show car, and then decided to keep a similar look with the production model. This was stupid. Had GM instead gone with a body with more interior space, the Volt would have been a success. Had they gone with such a body PLUS a second, CUV or SUV version using the same drivetrain, it would have been a runaway hit.

Or the CUV alone, but offering AWD. I would have got one if the price were right and it met my other major requirements, accepting anything with at least 20 miles AER but preferably a bit more up to about 2016/17. In reality, the only CUVs in that category prior to the (bit too big) RAV4 Prime in that period were the inefficient Outlander and the space-compromised, low-AER, expensive Crosstrek.

LeftieBiker wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 11:48 am
For whatever reason, GM always finds a way to sabotage their electrified vehicles. The latest example is the Bolt "EUV" with its cramped cargo area and lack of an AWD option. Now that GM has committed - supposedly - to making EV vehicles as their mainstay, they are going to have to stop this crap, and start producing EVs that have the forms and functions that people want. They could learn from Ford in this area, despite Ford's later start.

Well, Ford did make their own version of a "Volt" 2WD CUV along with a roomier sedan, but the C-Max and Fusion Energis were half-assed conversions like the Prius Prime where they just shoved the pack under the cargo bay/trunk, losing a bunch of volume. Totally defeats the purpose if you want a CUV. Less of an issue with the sedan, but still important for many if not most.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:52 pm

GCC:
Toyota Chief Scientist Pratt makes the case for hybrids and plug-ins
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/0 ... pratt.html


Pretty much the same points I've made previously re battery cost/resources to remove x GHGs (i.e. more PHEVs/greater reduction vs. a single BEV/lesser reduction; he's apparently got both a RAV4 Prime and a Model X), so skip if not interested.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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