GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 05, 2021 9:52 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 6:38 am
GRA wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 4:17 pm
In order to be seen as a reasonable replacement by most people for liquid fuels, I think the 20-80% charge time has to be no more than 20 minutes, but preferably 10 minutes or less (with adequate range also). To eliminate virtually all extra time spent charging we want to get the 0-100% charge time down to that level, with a battery that can take that without degradation.
It is interesting how someone that has driven an EV for a few days is the source of so much understanding of EVs.

Us long term EV drivers don't know anything.

It's interesting that early adopters think they represent the priorities and outlook of the typical non-ideological drivers of the general public, who see no reason to switch unless the new tech provides them with essentially the same capabilities as the old tech plus something else they value, and does so for a comparable price.

To date, BEVs fail that test. I had plenty of experience selling a new tech (RE) to customers, and am well aware of the very different priorities of those two groups.

Edit: On that point, and getting back directly on topic, the following is from ABG:
I'm not driving an electric car to California. Give me a plug-in hybrid

Electric charging remains a hang-up for road trips. PHEVs deserve more attention
https://www.autoblog.com/2021/05/05/plu ... are-great/

Next week I'm going to drive with my wife, nine-month-old son and two dogs from Portland, Ore., to Los Angeles. It's a journey that's nearly 1,000 miles and will take about 16 hours. There is no scenario in which I'd make the journey in an electric car or SUV.

Even with Tesla's widespread Supercharger network providing free electrons, we'd still be stuck sitting in the parking lot of a Chili's for some interminably long time waiting for the thing to recharge. And that's if a charger was even available. The situation with other cars and other charger networks is worse.

Now, could 800-volt fast charging improve the situation? Could more choices of charger locations make sitting around more appealing? Yes and yes, but that's not the situation right now.

However, I am not here to torpedo electric cars. I am also not here to recommend buying a Suburban for the two long-haul journeys you make every year and then needlessly burning vast amounts of gasoline 355 other days. There is already a smart solution, even if it's a stop-gap one, that isn't getting enough attention as a solution to reducing one's carbon footprint and not sentencing you to an hour waiting around in a parking lot while your baby cries and gas-powered cars zip off after a quick splash at Chevron. . . .

. . . should you need to go further [than a PHEV's AER], you don't need to scout out charging locations along the way or worry if your hotel will have one available upon your arrival. Plug-in hybrids can run on gasoline, so recharging along the way would be nice but not necessary. They're also incredibly efficient gasoline-powered vehicles, even with their electric range exhausted. Your bladder is going to run out of space long before the RAV4 Prime exhausts its 600 miles of total range.

Electric car devotees are quick to decry plug-in hybrids since they still burn gasoline. Yet, this all-or-nothing position is counterproductive to the larger cause. Plug-in hybrids can run on gasoline, but in the typical use case, they rarely do. They'll mostly travel around on battery power, which will save a massive amount of CO2 from entering Earth's atmosphere. And in many cases, those savings never would've happened without the presence of that gasoline engine: Most buyers would have instead gone with a pure gasoline vehicle or at best, a traditional hybrid. I'm definitely not alone in my hesitancy to make longer journeys with an electric car.

Now, plug-in hybrids are quite obviously more complex than either strictly gas or strictly electric vehicles. There are packaging issues and inefficiencies aplenty, although it's probably not a bad thing that they have fewer batteries requiring the mining of rare metals. A perfect solution they are not, but they ultimately do the job of putting less CO2 in the atmosphere while also requiring less sacrifice and behavioral change from the car owner.

To be sure, sacrifice and behavioral change are an absolute necessity if humanity is to slow climate change, but as the coronavirus pandemic has made abundantly clear, there are vast numbers of humans who have no interest in sacrifice or behavioral change. If people won't wear a mask to go into a Target, they aren't going to wait for 45 minutes in its parking lot while their car recharges.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 2:00 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 5:46 pm
If the Bolt drivetrain is used successfully in future EVs with better bodies, then it will have been a worthwhile effort for GM.
All 55 kW of it. :roll:
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 3:44 am

The onboard charger can be upgraded, obviously.
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knightmb
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 am

Next week I'm going to drive with my wife, nine-month-old son and two dogs from Portland, Ore., to Los Angeles. It's a journey that's nearly 1,000 miles and will take about 16 hours. There is no scenario in which I'd make the journey in an electric car or SUV.
I would argue that it would be easier just to rent a high MPG gas vehicle for the trip then. Why try to make it in a Hybrid or BEV? I wouldn't want to travel to Japan and then insist that I have a boat and should use it. It would be better getting a plane ticket.

Edit: I see now that what I wrote here was already beat to death in their comment section :lol:

Moral: Never buy a car based on an edge case.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 5:39 am

knightmb wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 am
Moral: Never buy a car based on an edge case.
Like people in my state do ALL the time!
I'd guess 1/2+ the people drive large pickups or SUVs all the time, on the off chance they'll need to haul something or need to get through 10" of snow a few times/year :roll: Most of the time these large vehicles are just used to transport one person back and forth to work or after work shopping, crazy really.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 7:45 am

jjeff wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 5:39 am
Like people in my state do ALL the time!
I'd guess 1/2+ the people drive large pickups or SUVs all the time, on the off chance they'll need to haul something or need to get through 10" of snow a few times/year :roll: Most of the time these large vehicles are just used to transport one person back and forth to work or after work shopping, crazy really.
In my area, even when they do buy that big SUV and the snow *does* get here, they just crash it :lol:
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jlv
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 8:12 am

Next week I'm going to drive with my wife, nine-month-old son and two dogs from Portland, Ore., to Los Angeles. It's a journey that's nearly 1,000 miles and will take about 16 hours. There is no scenario in which I'd make the journey in an electric car or SUV.

Even with Tesla's widespread Supercharger network providing free electrons, we'd still be stuck sitting in the parking lot of a Chili's for some interminably long time waiting for the thing to recharge. And that's if a charger was even available. The situation with other cars and other charger networks is worse.
Well, that just skews the facts.

A friend just drove 1300 miles from MA=>FL (and back) to watch the Crew-2 launch in person. Their family of 4 used their Model Y for the trip and hit all v3 SuperChargers most of the way. No "interminably long time waiting".

I really want to a $2/gal "pollution tax" on gasoline. Then you can keep your PHEVs all you want.
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 8:17 am

GRA wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:52 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 6:38 am
It is interesting how someone that has driven an EV for a few days is the source of so much understanding of EVs.

Us long term EV drivers don't know anything.
It's interesting that early adopters think they represent the priorities and outlook of the typical non-ideological drivers of the general public, who see no reason to switch unless the new tech provides them with essentially the same capabilities as the old tech plus something else they value, and does so for a comparable price.
LOL. Are you claiming that you are a "typical non-ideological driver"?

Once again, the general public isn't a lump, it is a distribution. Horses had capabilities that cars didn't, like full self driving, so the automobile was doomed in GRA world.

While I do pitch PHEVs to some people, I find that the "Trump crowd" used to be totally against them. They would listen to BEVs on two levels: speed and acceleration, like results of Pikes Peak hill climb, and low cost for electric trucks for local delivery. After the Texas freeze, I've sent some stuff on people that plugged their house into a Ford F150 with "Pro Power Onboard generator", 7.2 kW. If they weren't Chevy Truck people, they might have been interested. Instead, they asked the local Chevy dealer when Chevy was getting something like this. Which I think is a win.

GRA wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:52 pm
To date, BEVs fail that test. I had plenty of experience selling a new tech (RE) to customers, and am well aware of the very different priorities of those two groups.
Exponential growth isn't good enough for you? Or is a doubling time of 2.5 years is just too long for your quarterly mindset?

Why are you using your considerable sales skills to try to unsell LEAF and other BEV owners? What is your goal?

GRA wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:52 pm

Edit: On that point, and getting back directly on topic, the following is from ABG:
I'm not driving an electric car to California. Give me a plug-in hybrid

Electric car devotees are quick to decry plug-in hybrids since they still burn gasoline. Yet, this all-or-nothing position is counterproductive to the larger cause. Plug-in hybrids can run on gasoline, but in the typical use case, they rarely do. They'll mostly travel around on battery power, which will save a massive amount of CO2 from entering Earth's atmosphere. And in many cases, those savings never would've happened without the presence of that gasoline engine: Most buyers would have instead gone with a pure gasoline vehicle or at best, a traditional hybrid. I'm definitely not alone in my hesitancy to make longer journeys with an electric car.
The amusing thing is I have and will continue to suggest PHEVs and even HEVs or ICEs to people with a use case that fits best into. Do notice about half of the miles in the typical PHEV are electric, unlike the claim above. Most buyers will go with an ICE or hybrid for years into the future. Will not be PHEVs or BEVs due to the manufacturing capacity, the infrastructure or the distribution of knowledge needed. Doubling time of roughly 2-3 years. Everything takes time.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 9:49 am

SageBrush wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 4:05 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 7:34 am
SageBrush wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 6:55 am
The only bottom-up approach I can think of from a car manufacturer is GM with the moderately expensive Bolt, and that has been a failure.
Failure is too strong of word.
Failure, as in unprofitable to GM at market prices and therefore relegated to compliance car status.
I looked in the Tesla to English dictionary and found this:
Compliance car : any electric car that is not a Tesla
:roll:
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
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SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 06, 2021 4:34 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu May 06, 2021 9:49 am
I looked in the Tesla to English dictionary and found this:
Compliance car : any electric car that is not a Tesla
LOL !

VW may be breaking out of the mold, at least in Europe.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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