GRA
Posts: 12888
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:56 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:50 am
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:28 pm
Toyota RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid is still flying off dealer lots—faster than Mach-E
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... han-mach-e
. . .The RAV4 Prime was the quickest-selling new car in March, second only to the Chevrolet Corvette, according to iSeeCars analysis. It took an average 10.2 days to sell a RAV4 Prime last month, while transaction prices averaged $44,201 (compared to a $39,220 base price), according to the analysis. . . .

With the battery-supply issues that previously limited production sorted, Toyota said that from calendar year 2021 on, it's planning on 20,000 units annually for the United States, up from the 5,000 units allocated during 2020. But Toyota could perhaps sell even more. . . .

Now the question becomes, could Toyota sell many more RAV4 Primes than it's allocating for the U.S.? Based on what we see here, we think so.
Great news. Seriously.

So what fraction of miles will be all electric?

Assuming no change in incentives, presumably 53% in the U.S. I'd love to see a demographic breakdown of % EV vs. age etc.


WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:53 am
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:28 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:34 am


Audi Q4 e-tron has a similar price, far better driving in electric mode, a nicer interior, none of that tinny engine sound and no weekly stop at the gas station.

From my point of view, why would I pick the RAV4? Oh, we know your point of view, but both you and I are not everyone.

So would PHEVs do better? As only 37% of miles are electric, less in Europe with high gas taxes, would that really work better?
See above.
For what, exactly?

Sure, short term a more PHEVs with 37% EMs might be better than fewer BEVs (due to battery shortages), but long term that doesn't work.

Doesn't have to. As batteries get better and cheaper, BEVs will make more sense for more people. Then there's the other possible solution, PHFCEVs.

WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:53 am
More PHEVs cause more need for at home charging. You have spread lots of ah stuff around how hard this is, but to get more EMs at home charging is a requirement. Why is this a problem for BEVs, and not an acknowledged by GRA problem for PHEVs?

Because, of the 56% of U S. households that can charge at home, the lowest common denominator type of at-home charging, usually the only type available without electrical work, is L1. Although inconvenient, even I could charge at L1 for the price of an extension cord, at least outside of the heating months. Same goes for workplace charging, although you'd want more L2 there. A small-battery PHEV with access to only L1 imposes no significant restraints on the owner. The same can't be said for small-battery BEVs, as I learned (actually knew it beforehand, but there's nothing like a practical demonstration) 2 decades ago during the week I spent driving a Think Citi.

None of this implies that we won't need a massive building program for home/workplace charging at existing apartments etc. plus public L2s/QCs and/or H2 stations, it just eases the burden.

WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:53 am
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:28 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:34 am
Personal transport isn't the hard problem.
The problem with "Model Ts" is that competing with horses is easier than competing with ICEs.
Only if you've got roads to drive them on, which mostly wasn't vthe case outside if cities when Model T sales first took off. It was their constantly decreasibg price plus reliability and capability that drove sales. We need lower-priced PEVs now, not later.
Sorry, the world doesn't match your requirements. EVs are going to take over the market starting at the edge of the market where they have an advantage, at the high end, not with at the lower -priced edge of the market.

They've been at the higher end for a decade, and remain too expensive for most people. PHEVs with small battery packs will be several thousand dollars less expensive than BEVs until battery packs are no longer the most expensive component in the car, while providing a greater environmental benefit in practice.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4377
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:12 am

GRA wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:56 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:50 am
Great news. Seriously.

So what fraction of miles will be all electric?

Assuming no change in incentives, presumably 53% in the U.S.
Why do you assume only incentives matter?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 12888
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:25 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:12 am
GRA wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:56 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:50 am


Great news. Seriously.

So what fraction of miles will be all electric?

Assuming no change in incentives, presumably 53% in the U.S.
Why do you assume only incentives matter?

I don't, mandates matter as well, as I've often said, along with infrastructure or lack of it.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4377
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:26 pm

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:25 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:12 am
GRA wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:56 pm



Assuming no change in incentives, presumably 53% in the U.S.
Why do you assume only incentives matter?

I don't, mandates matter as well, as I've often said, along with infrastructure or lack of it.
And the design of the cars.... doesn't???
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

Triggerhappy007
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:08 pm
Delivery Date: 01 Jan 2019

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:31 pm

jjeff wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:03 am
. The same goes for probably the most common PHEV on the road, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, 16a L2 not to mention the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV which at last look(granted it's been a while) was limited to 16a L2.
I have the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid and it's up to 30A L2. I think it has always been that since it was released. Takes exactly 2 hours to charge using my Leaf's L2 EVSE.
2020 Leaf Plus SV Tech & All Weather
2019 Leaf SL - traded in
2020 Pacifica Hybrid Limited AST

GRA
Posts: 12888
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:06 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:26 pm
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:25 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:12 am


Why do you assume only incentives matter?

I don't, mandates matter as well, as I've often said, along with infrastructure or lack of it.
And the design of the cars.... doesn't???

Of course it does, which is why I want to see a continuously lowering cap on car subsidies, if we don't simply get rid of them as I'd prefer. Manufacturers have concentrated on the high end of the market because that's where the most profit is, and they have little incentive to drive the model mix down market as long as they can get the same emission credits at the top of the market. They should be several years ahead of where they are by now, given appropriate incentives and mandates. We need much less attention being paid to Autopilots, glass roofs, Falcon-Wing doors and similar unnecessary glitz, and far more to making the basic tech more affordable and desirable, so more can and will buy it. At least we do in states that can't simply tell the public "Take this and shut up". China can do that, we can't.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

jlsoaz
Posts: 848
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:48 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:29 am
[....]
The time for assessing science fiction scenarios that may work in 30-50 years is long passed. Biofuels like algae-produced gasoline analogs are worth pursuing. Fighting deforestation is worth doing. E-85 tech, though, was always a sop to the North American corn growers and to US auto makers who wanted to kick the can down the road - and get paid for doing so. It is the filtered cigarettes of climate change modification.
[....]
I was re-reading portions of this thread to see if I could catch up with the latest points and so I re-read this point. While the point is a bit old, What I want to say is that I think, basically, this helps us understand some of our disagreement is:

As far as I know (and I need to know more) Zero-Carbon synthetic fuels, including but not limited to hydrogen, and including but not limited to bio-derived processes, have existed for years. They are not "30-50 years" away. Not just E-85, but full-blown honest-to-goodness synthetic fuels. I'm not 100% certain this includes relatively complex hydrocarbon molecules with a net zero carbon footprint that can be used as drop-in replacements for gasoline and diesel, but I suspect it does. I believe the problem is not that the product is "30-50 years" away (the product is already here), but problems include that the cost is high and we are not there yet as to scaling production.
2015 Model S 70 Oct 2020 -
2013 Volt - Oct 2017- Oct 2020
2012 SL Lease Oct 2012-Dec 2015
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
opinions expressed are my own

jlsoaz
Posts: 848
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:56 am

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:20 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:59 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:55 am


Only problem is that in reality, most people with PHEVs drive them like they were HEVs. Almost never plugged in. So far less real GHG reduction.
Can you provide a cite that 'most' PHEVs are never plugged in?
https://theicct.org/publications/phev-r ... e-sept2020

37% of PHEV global miles are electric miles. More in the USA, with low fuel taxes than in Europe with high fuel taxes.

So high fuel taxes are not the answer to getting PHEVs used as mostly EVs.
In my view, there are several moving parts to this -

If good PHEVs continue to be built, then I'm assuming at least some of them will come with bigger batteries. These are such early days in battery pack production, and I'm kind of penciling in that 30-50 kWh (or whatever) on a PHEV could become more standard. If and as that happens, a DCFC port on a PHEV could be more common, and it would be a bit more do-able for a PHEV operator to think in terms of choices that would not inconvenience them overmuch, rather than just saying to heck with it, burning through the battery juice and then switching over to fossil fuel (or low-carbon or zero-carbon synthetic fuel). So, if prices on fossil fuels were raised, in a bigger battery phev example, where it is a bit more doable to conceive of an operator actually trying for higher percentages of EV operation, then they could have some incentive to operate more as an EV.

But another impact of higher fuel taxes would be that lower-carbon and zero-carbon synthetic fuels might be more competitive. I'm not sure how this would impact PHEV operation split between bev/phev (or whether that's entirely an economic equation) but maybe it could also impact (cause to go up) PHEV popularity and sales in a carbon transition economy.
2015 Model S 70 Oct 2020 -
2013 Volt - Oct 2017- Oct 2020
2012 SL Lease Oct 2012-Dec 2015
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
opinions expressed are my own

WetEV
Posts: 4377
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:22 pm

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:06 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:26 pm
And the design of the cars.... doesn't???
Of course it does
Then why not discuss how the design of PHEVs does matter, rather than gull wing doors?

https://www.hybridcars.com/study-shows- ... ther-phev/

Compare EV mode performance and EV range, for example. A car with a tiny electric motor isn't going to provide many EV only miles.


With a low ratio of EV motor : gas engine power, you end up with 0-60 in minutes if ever. See PIP. Top speed in EV, 62 MPH. On a good day, with ideal conditions.

200 HP gas and 50 HP EV? Looking at 15 second or more EV only.

Image

The current Federal tax incentive means at a 18kWh battery gets the full tax credit. And there is no incentive for going to a higher EV motor power vs gas engine power.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 12888
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:36 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:22 pm
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:06 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:26 pm
And the design of the cars.... doesn't???
Of course it does
Then why not discuss how the design of PHEVs does matter, rather than gull wing doors?

Because I've already done so, repeatedly and at length, describing both my own preferences as well as how they may differ from others.

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:22 pm
https://www.hybridcars.com/study-shows- ... ther-phev/

Compare EV mode performance and EV range, for example. A car with a tiny electric motor isn't going to provide many EV only miles.


With a low ratio of EV motor : gas engine power, you end up with 0-60 in minutes if ever. See PIP. Top speed in EV, 62 MPH. On a good day, with ideal conditions.

200 HP gas and 50 HP EV? Looking at 15 second or more EV only.

Image

As I've pointed out before, there is no need for 0-60 below about 15 or maybe even 20 seconds for safety reasons, it's a matter of personal taste/desire. The Prius' ca. 10 sec. 0-60 time is considered slow now, in fact anything over 8 sec. is seemingly considered pedestrian these days, but 30 years ago it would have been moderately fast. My '88 Subaru wagon took mid-13 sec. but I never had a problem merging into fast-moving freeway traffic with it. I had to skip some passing opportunities, but that only meant a few minutes delay.

You want slow enough to be dangerous, my dad's '76 Peugeot diesel took over 28 sec., and even that was only occasionally too slow to be safe in a merge, although passing required about 3 miles of clear road and sight.

WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:22 pm
The current Federal tax incentive means at a 18kWh battery gets the full tax credit. And there is no incentive for going to a higher EV motor power vs gas engine power.

The customers are capable of deciding what performance they want and are willing to pay for. The one performance mandate I might impose on PHEVs other than a true hold mode is that they be able to reach and cruise at 80 mph on the battery alone, as that's the highest speed limit on any U.S. public road. But as you're only going to see that speed at times and in areas of low traffic rather than a congested stop and go commute, it's probably unnecessary. People who buy any variety of Prius, i.e. 'People who couldn't care less about cars', will be satisfied by the Prime's performance. Others will demand moret, and manufacturers can provide a broad range of types to suit almost everyone.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Return to “Business / Economy and Politics”