LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:50 pm

Thanks, but unfortunately I find it physically difficult to read books these days. Having been a reader all my life until age 55 or so it was a big change, but I'm too occupied trying to stay alive to give it a lot of regretful thinking. Fortunately I was still reading the Nation and similar fare weekly when greenwashing took hold, and I still read enough online to keep tabs on it.

Unfortunately, human nature dictates that if someone offers us a painless way to feel that we are doing something to save the planet, that will always be preferred over actually doing things to save the ecosphere. That aspect of our genetic programming - the prioritization of comfort over ethics - is what has, along with the universal drive to procreate no matter what, doomed our species and most of the others here as well.
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goldbrick
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:44 pm

I think the planet will be fine, what is at stake is human civilization as we know it. Since that is what got us to this point, maybe it's no huge loss.

Worst case would be a nuclear holocaust but even then, in a few million years or so I'm sure life of some form will start again.

Sadly, as the book blurb says, the problems are political and cultural and not technological. If it was the other way around I'd have much more hope.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:45 pm

You have a pretty er, broad definition of "fine", Goldbrick! I'd describe an event that even kills a lot of bacteria as at least "pretty bad."
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jlsoaz
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:30 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:29 am
Trying to decide it's one or the other, as to finance for renewables or finance for cleanup, is missing the point. The message of the IPCC reports is that at least some of both need to happen simultaneously.
I'm saying that we need to expend most of the available resources on preventing carbon emissions, while continuing to research, on a much smaller scale, atmospheric capture and various forms of sequestration - NOT including injection into oilfields and mines. We need to do what we can do right now, RIGHT NOW. The time for assessing science fiction scenarios that may work in 30-50 years is long passed. Biofuels like algae-produced gasoline analogs are worth pursuing. Fighting deforestation is worth doing. E-85 tech, though, was always a sop to the North American corn growers and to US auto makers who wanted to kick the can down the road - and get paid for doing so. It is the filtered cigarettes of climate change modification.
I think there may be some disagreement as to what is do-able right now, and what is advisable to finance with some near-term risk.

A few illustrative points. This article from today highlights that at least some of the technological work is already done, and that finance, not innovation is the hurdle, in some respects. And that if the carbon price is there, in effect, this would create greater demand for the supplying of solutions:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles ... -or-mirage
Carbon Capture: Silver Bullet or Mirage?
Carbon capture’s prospects are brighter than ever, but carbon pricing remains a major hurdle.
Jason Deign December 07, 2020

"....For carbon capture to take off in a meaningful way, companies will need to have a clear financial incentive. That means having carbon pricing comfortably above the cost of capture, usage and/or storage. And the cost depends on where the carbon is coming from....."

This IEA report page they link seems also helpful, though I haven't read deeply into it yet.
https://www.iea.org/reports/ccus-in-cle ... ransitions

As well, I had forgotten this about Musk, and I don't hang on or agree with his every word, but on this point, it would be difficult to find anything he's ever done or said with which I agree more strongly:

https://insideevs.com/features/458853/t ... nstration/
Could Tesla CEO Elon Musk's Carbon Tax Vision Become A Reality?
Dec 07, 2020 7h ago
By: EVANNEX

"....Driving a gasoline-powered car is a classic example of an "untaxed negative externality." Fossil fuel powered cars create emissions that accelerate climate change and causes all kinds of damage, without paying any kind of penalty.

Musk argued this situation was costing $5.3 trillion a year, citing International Monetary Funds data. For him, the solution was obvious: "We need to move away from this and have a carbon tax."...."

Now this is not focused on pollution cleanup, but is more of a generic comment on carbon taxes and global climate emergency financial flow, but I think it's pretty clear from other links that a meaningful widespread carbon tax of some sort is important to financing the build-out of co2 cleanup services and technologies.

With that said, we also had this week someone else point up the Chile-based project to manufacture drop-in gasoline replacements, including (it would seem) from ambient CO2 feedstock, so that would seem to be another indicator that the relevant technologies are somewhat further along than has in the past been discussed. I do think there is a phenomenon at play here that discussion itself of this topic has been in many climate emergency discussion quarters very stultified for a very long time, and so it has been difficult to find a toe-hold for discussing the importance of pollution cleanup alongside pollution prevention, with some carbon warriors tenaciously arguing that pollution cleanup technology is way-unrealistic and not ready-for-use and the emergency is too great and prevention should be massively prioritized.

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2020/co ... 23021.html

"....Chile, with its excellent climate conditions for wind power and the associated low cost of electricity, has a very high potential in international terms for producing, exporting and locally using green hydrogen. To generate green hydrogen, electrolysers use wind power to dissociate water into its two components: oxygen and hydrogen. In a second step, plans call for filtering CO2 out of the air and then combining it with the green hydrogen to form synthetic methanol. The result is renewable methanol, which can be converted into climate-friendly fuel using an MTG (methanol to gasoline) technology to be licensed and supported by ExxonMobil....."

In any case, regardless of disagreements or figuring out information relevant to broader climate emergency considerations, I think this last headline was just so welcome, and could have ramifications for the direction of this thread, if indeed it turns out to be legit that drop-in gasoline replacements are coming along.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:41 pm

Musk was arguing - correctly - that we need to stop producing vast amounts CO2 with our vehicles, by switching to EVs. (This of course also benefits him greatly.) The carbon tax would do several things, including drive research into capture, but its primary and immediate effect would be to dis-incentivize the internal combustion engine for personal transportation. To put it another way, it would be a powerful force in preventing carbon emissions. It could possibly also prove to be the assist needed to develop capture technology that is practical, but for now it would be driving down CO2 emissions much, much more than driving their capture.
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DougWantsALeaf
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:55 pm

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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:20 pm

GCR:
Volvo is paying plug-in hybrid drivers for all the electricity they use
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... y-they-use


Also see:
Volvo CEO: Ban on gasoline cars makes more sense than EV credits and subsidies
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... subsidies
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:15 pm

This takes another step in getting at whether we will have "efuels" (apparently the latest word for it), zero-net-carbon (? or low-net-carbon?) synthetic fuels that could in theory help prolong the useful lives of existing ICVs and PHEVs, or even allow a path where new ones could be put on the roads for some time. Note that I doubt the exact carbon calculations being put forth here will hold up that well, but the important thing in my view is not the exact number, but the basic principle of asking to what extent drop-in-replacement zero-net-carbon synthetic fuels, along with zero-net-carbon other synthetic materials, are possible.

https://www.motor1.com/news/489509/pors ... roduction/
Porsche Synthetic Fuel Said To Be As Clean As EVs, Trials Start In 2022
Feb 20, 2021 8h ago
By: Jacob Oliva
Is this the spark of hope that internal combustion engines have been waiting for?
"....Dr. Walliser believes that conventionally-fueled engines that use synthetic fuel will turn ICE-equipped cars into machines that are as clean as EVs. He added that eFuel is important to Porsche to reduce their CO2 output, citing that synthetic fuels are cleaner, have no by-product, have fewer particulates, and less NOx produced than current pump fuel.

"How reduced, you ask? Dr. Walliser said that when Porsche starts full production of eFuel, they expect a CO2 reduction of 85 percent.

""From a 'well to wheel' perspective – and you have to consider the well to wheel impact of all vehicles – this will be the same level of CO2 produced in the manufacture and use of an electric vehicle," Dr. Walliser concluded."
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jlsoaz
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:18 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:41 pm
Musk was arguing - correctly - that we need to stop producing vast amounts CO2 with our vehicles, by switching to EVs. (This of course also benefits him greatly.) The carbon tax would do several things, including drive research into capture, but its primary and immediate effect would be to dis-incentivize the internal combustion engine for personal transportation. To put it another way, it would be a powerful force in preventing carbon emissions. It could possibly also prove to be the assist needed to develop capture technology that is practical, but for now it would be driving down CO2 emissions much, much more than driving their capture.
Regardless of what Mr. Musk said in that particular case, it has become much more apparent he evidently has a very strong interest in both carbon taxes and in carbon cleanup, as he should, in my opinion.
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WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:58 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:57 pm
I tried copying the post I'm replying to here over to the "Mink hole. . ." topic, but having to add all the missing quotes and keep the attributions straight while doing this on my phone and gradually losing feeling in my fingers (it was cool and windy last night) was just too much. A mod should feel free to move this and the next two replies to that topic, if they wish.
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:43 pm
GRA wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:02 pm

As I've pointed out, they're outselling BEVs now in many European countries, for a variety of reasons, much higher fuel prices being one.
For 2020 in Europe, 740,805 BEVs in 2020, and 573,526 PHEVs.

https://carsalesbase.com/european-sales-2020-ev-phev/

Did I miss the week that PHEVs outsold BEVs?
You apparently missed the last couple of months, where PHEVs did, which was the opposite of what had been happening before. Too early to say if it's a long term trend or just a blip. But looking at 2020, what happened in Europe then? Let's see, IIRR the Model 3 (and Y?) arrived, priced for early adopters. Then the pandemic hit, and sales % presumably shifted to the higher end as here, as early adopters had the disposable income to buy cars, and those lower down had either lost their jobs or were worried about doing so.
Europe registrations are the source of sales data, and "preregistration" is allowed. Speculation: Suppose an automaker thought that PHEV subsidies were going to be cut. So then they take orders, preregister the sales of PHEVs now, collect the subsidies, and deliver the cars later. Because of this and other factors, full year data is the only trustable data.
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