SageBrush
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Wed May 19, 2021 8:42 am

The problem with using use cases to identify where PHEV will be superior to BEV is that it ignores scale. If only a few percent of the car market perceive PHEV as the preferred choice, it will price itself out of market, perhaps even before stricter regulations add to its value burden.
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 20, 2021 4:47 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 6:38 am
PHEVs are a more expensive technology.

One or both of the following statements is true, depending on the relative cost of ICE and batteries. A PHEV is:

More expensive than ICE, as needs a battery, inverter and electric motor. (Subsidies are higher on a percentage basis)

More expensive than BEV, as needs gasoline engine, transmission and such. More maintenance. And it pollutes.

So why would anyone want own one?

Third try at this; the previous two got timed out on two separate days. PHEVs using fossil-fueled ICEs are obviously a transitional tech, as fossil-fuels will ultimately be banned. What will determine if PHEVs are a long-lasting option are the relative improvements of batteries, FCs/H2, syn/biofuels and their support infrastructure in the areas of price, capability, volume & weight, longevity/durability, reliability, and complexity. Complexity by itself is rarely enough to eliminate a given tech - if it were, BEVs would have been the product of choice over ICEs for the last century +, and we'd still be doing trans-oceanic trips in sailing ships instead of jet airliners. And if we were able to provide the necessary volumes of syn/biofuels at affordable prices to use in current ICEs, almost no one would care about BEVs.

WetEV wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 6:38 am
Infrastructure.

In 2010, GM drove a Volt across the USA. This would have been difficult and much slower for an EV at that time. There was almost no public charging.

The same route would be easy for many EVs today. Yes, a little slower. But not much. Not all routes would be, however.

Look forward to the 12 year or so life of a car bought today. Twelve years from now the following is likely:

As BEVs will be cheaper and nicer than both PHEVs and ICEs, BEVs will be the majority of cars sold.

A DCQC station with low utilization can't hope be profitable due to fixed costs including demand charges. As the number of EVs on the road increases, the utilization increases. As the utilization of DCQC stations improve, they become profitable. Major routes, big cities first, then spreading out.

The issue with QC is demand charges, and that won't be solved until cheap energy storage is available. Economies of scale probably benefit H2 storage more, as doubling the capacity of a tank doesn't double the surface area of that tank. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see H2/FCs being used to reduce demand charges at QCs and/or provide H2 fueling, if the lower storage costs are enough to overcome the higher round-trip efficiency of a battery. For now, this is all too immature to say.

WetEV wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 6:38 am
The question then is "will PHEVs continue"?


Yes, for some in the past a PHEV is a was better choice, assuming they could live in the limitations of the few choices. As such, it was a worthwhile transitional technology then, and for some even now. That's not the question, please stay on topic.

Capability and convenience matter, as does price. As all three of the above techs but especially the latter two are early in their development curves, we don't know where they'll end up, so speculation on the ultimate future of PHEVs is kind of pointless. In five years we should be able to make a better guess, and in ten years have a high likelihood of being correct.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Thu May 20, 2021 7:56 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 4:47 pm
The issue with QC is demand charges, and that won't be solved until cheap energy storage is available.
John McCarthy wrote:He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Fri May 21, 2021 7:22 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 7:56 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 4:47 pm
The issue with QC is demand charges, and that won't be solved until cheap energy storage is available.
John McCarthy wrote:He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense

Uh huh, and he who does arithmetic and reaches conclusions while having no idea what the actual values will be in the future is talking even more nonsense.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Fri May 21, 2021 8:28 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 7:22 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 7:56 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 4:47 pm
The issue with QC is demand charges, and that won't be solved until cheap energy storage is available.
John McCarthy wrote:He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense

Uh huh, and he who does arithmetic and reaches conclusions while having no idea what the actual values will be in the future is talking even more nonsense.
Use today's numbers.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 22, 2021 6:43 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 8:28 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 7:22 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu May 20, 2021 7:56 pm



Uh huh, and he who does arithmetic and reaches conclusions while having no idea what the actual values will be in the future is talking even more nonsense.
Use today's numbers.

Which would only tell us what the situation is today, and we already know the answer to that; that's not the question being asked. The future numbers are projections or predictions, with no certainty as to the timeframe or even if this or that improvement will even happen. Some are more likely than others, being further along the RD&D curve, but they're not guaranteed, so GIGO applies for now.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sat May 22, 2021 8:06 pm

GRA wrote:
Sat May 22, 2021 6:43 pm
we already know the answer to that
Only if we have done the math.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 23, 2021 6:38 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sat May 22, 2021 8:06 pm
GRA wrote:
Sat May 22, 2021 6:43 pm
we already know the answer to that
Only if we have done the math.
Which we have done repeatedly for the current situation, in this and other topics.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Sun May 23, 2021 8:11 pm

GRA wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 6:38 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sat May 22, 2021 8:06 pm
GRA wrote:
Sat May 22, 2021 6:43 pm
we already know the answer to that
Only if we have done the math.
Which we have done repeatedly for the current situation, in this and other topics.
Oh? Where?
The issue with QC is demand charges, and that won't be solved until cheap energy storage is available.
Demand charges are significant for locations with very little traffic. Not for busy locations.

Batteries are cheap energy storage available now. Far cheaper than demand charges for underutilized locations.

Show the math on either, if you disagree.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: Are PHEVs a transitional technology? Or a long lasting use case?

Tue May 25, 2021 4:39 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 8:11 pm
GRA wrote:
Sun May 23, 2021 6:38 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sat May 22, 2021 8:06 pm


Only if we have done the math.
Which we have done repeatedly for the current situation, in this and other topics.
Oh? Where?
The issue with QC is demand charges, and that won't be solved until cheap energy storage is available.
Demand charges are significant for locations with very little traffic. Not for busy locations.

Batteries are cheap energy storage available now. Far cheaper than demand charges for underutilized locations.

Show the math on either, if you disagree.

Why repeat what's already been done numerous times? Refueling or recharging demand is sporadic, with wide variations by the hour and day, unlike say industrial processes where the demand is continuous. Do you think Tesla could make a profit off their 20-stallard stations on say I-5 in the San Joaquin Valley, when they're overwhelmed by holiday traffic and then see very little traffic the rest of the time? According to Tesla, they must be losing money on SCs even though they're supposed to be non-profit, because they tried to raise SC prices even more but had to lower them after customer outcry. Either that, or they're simply lying about them being non-profit. Everyone else (other than EA in California and a few other states) is charging more during peak hours, well over what gas costs. Why do you suppose that is?

Remote areas may be better or worse, because while they may be extremely sporadic, they're also often at a much lower usage, allowing a smaller battery pack and a week or more to recharge. But we still don't see anyone making a profit off QCs yet, or anyone building them sans subsidies. Why do you think that is? As we shift more and more supply to VR, cheap long-term storage becomes even more critical - see
Long Duration Energy Storage for
California’s Clean, Reliable Grid
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... .2020.pdf

What's true for the grid is even more true fordedicated on-site storage.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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