rmay635703
Posts: 586
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2011 7:43 pm

Re: General EV sales topic

Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:19 pm

Zythryn wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:07 am
jjeff wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:44 am
LeftieBiker wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:37 pm
I think that jjeff missed the part about it being California only.
Ah yes, that makes more sense then. As I've seen maybe a total of 6? Model 3's in MN since they came out but can't drive a mile without seeing an F-150, that explains it :idea:
Personal perceptions of how many of a vehicle are on the road is troubling.
As another example, I see another Tesla virtually every time I go out. However, that is mainly because I am looking for EVs on the road.
I am sure I have passed scores of F-150s for every EV I see, however I really don’t notice them beyond being a moving obstruction. So I can’t recall seeing a Ford pickup truck in the last week.
That certainly doesn’t mean they aren’t there ;)
Per the WISDOT there are still around 3500 BEVs registered on Wisconsin roads, growth almost completely stopped in 2017.

PHEVs are becoming more common though

If growth is wanted vehicle specific taxes and infrastructure need to be put in line, federal guidelines / benchmarks likely need to exist in states to prevent anti-ev measures until there are actually a significant number of them (like over 5% on road)

Without federal intervention I fear there will be one half of the country with plug ins and another half without
WetEV wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:13 am
GRA wrote:
Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:46 pm
Much as I'd like to be encouraged by the growth in market share, I expect it's mainly an artifact if reduced overall sales due to the pandemic, and the resulting shift towards a higher percentage of sales being more expensive cars generally, including BEVs.
Change happen. "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

By focusing on the noise, you are ignoring the signal.
The trouble is 90% of this growth is in 5 states

The bottom half of states are downright hostile to plug ins.

12 states have infant mortality in BEV growth while PHEVs make up the bulk of their very small annual plug in sales.

GRA
Posts: 12916
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: General EV sales topic

Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:12 pm

All IEVS:
Europe: Plug-In Car Markeet Expands In January 2021 By 50%
https://insideevs.com/news/491188/europ ... uary-2021/

The car market in Europe was down by 26% year-over-year in January 2021, but that did not stop plug-ins from growing.

112,593 passenger plug-in electric car sales were registered last month (up 50% year-over-year), which represents 14% of the total market. For comparison, a year ago the market share was 6.6%, while the average for 2020 is 11%.

January 2021 was a pretty unusual month for plug-ins in Europe. BEVs were in kind of a rest mode after the rush in 2020, while PHEVs dominated the plug-in segment (58% share, much higher growth rate).

Sales by type:

BEVs: over 47,000 (up 18% year-over-year) and 5.6% of the market
PHEVs: over 65,000 (up 85% year-over-year) and 8.4% of the market.

The most popular models in January
The plug-in hybrid Volvo XC40 PHEV surprised everyone with its first place in January (3,543), ahead of the Renault ZOE (3,520) and the Kia Niro EV (3,123). In fourth was the plug-in hybrid BMW 330e.

The star of December - the Volkswagen ID.3 - was fifth with 2,978, while the Tesla Model 3 is outside top 20. . . .



Renault ZOE Is No Longer The Best Selling Electric Car In France
https://insideevs.com/news/491110/franc ... uary-2021/

In France, passenger car registrations decreased by roughly 6% year-over-year in January, while the plug-in market basically maintained its volume.

In total, some 15,812 plug-in cars were registered (up 2.4% year-over-year). 14,691 of those cars were passenger cars and they account for a 11.6% of the market.

Probably the most striking thing is that the plug-in hybrids more than doubled, while all-electric car registrations are down 41%!

Passenger BEVs: 6,471 - down 40.9% at 5.1% market share
Passenger PHEVs: 8,220 - up 116% at 6.5% market share
Light commercial BEVs: 1,121 - up 66%
Total plug-ins: 15,812 - up 2.4%.

Is France switching to PHEVs? Well, it might have a lot to do with the model allocation (in late 2020 some manufacturers self-registered a lot of BEVs that are now sold to customers).

Another interesting thing is that the Renault ZOE is no longer the most registered passenger plug-in car. It's not even second, as the two top places were taken by the Peugeot e-3008 plug-in hybrid (1,413) and the Peugeot e-208 (1,346). The Renault ZOE noted 1,013 units.

There is no Tesla Model 3 on the list of the most popular models, and the Volkswagen ID.3 was barely 10th BEV with 142 units. . . .



Germany: Plug-In Cars Capture One Fifth Of The Market In January 2021
Germany starts the year 2021 with more than doubling plug-in electric car sales in January, despite that the overall market decreased by 31%

In total, 36,903 passenger plug-ins were registered, which is 129% more than in January 2020, while the market share increased to 21.7%!

Sales of BEVs and PHEVs more than doubled:

BEVs: 16,315 – up 118% at 9.6% market share
PHEVs: 20,588 – up 138% at 12.1% market share

Total: 36,903 – up 129% at 21.7% market share

Sales of brands/models - January 2021

Four German brands - Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi - are the ones with the highest number of plug-in electric car registrations.

Volkswagen is the biggest player in terms of all-electric cars, while Mercedes-Benz is the biggest in the plug-in hybrid segment. . . .





Meanwhile:
China: Plug-In Car Sales More Than Triple In January 2021
https://insideevs.com/news/491182/china ... uary-2021/

January 2020 is a weak base to compare with, but January 2021 was a really strong month for plug-in electric car sales in China - one of the best.

According to EV Sales Blog, close to 173,000 new passenger plug-in cars were sold last month (up 223% year-over-year). The average market share was 8.4% (including 7% for BEVs).

The market is deeply dominated by all-electric cars, which are responsible for 83% of the plug-in volume.

Model rank
It seems that the MIC Tesla Model 3 will not be able to repeat its great success of being the best-selling electric car in China in 2020.

In January, sales of the tiny Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV amounted to 36,762 (manufacturer report), which is a new monthly record.

Tesla Model 3 is still selling great, but with 13,843 units, it's just the best of the rest right now. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4385
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: General EV sales topic

Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:10 pm

rmay635703 wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:19 pm
Zythryn wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:07 am
WetEV wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:13 am
Change happen. "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."
The trouble is 90% of this growth is in 5 states

The bottom half of states are downright hostile to plug ins.

12 states have infant mortality in BEV growth while PHEVs make up the bulk of their very small annual plug in sales.
PHEVs are a better choice for many areas of the country. Lack of charging infrastructure makes longer trips difficult. But most miles are local and can be EV. PHEVs get a bad name in California as they were bought only for carpool lane access only, and never ever plugged in. A total waste. But if I lived in some rural area or smaller city, and there wasn't charging infrastructure I would need for longer trips, I'd buy a PHEV. Almost did, rather than a LEAF, in 2012. But I couldn't stand the Volt, the LEAF was roomy and comfy. And I'd never take the LEAF on a long trip...or so I thought.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 12916
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: General EV sales topic

Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:20 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:10 pm

PHEVs are a better choice for many areas of the country. Lack of charging infrastructure makes longer trips difficult. But most miles are local and can be EV. PHEVs get a bad name in California as they were bought only for carpool lane access only, and never ever plugged in. A total waste. But if I lived in some rural area or smaller city, and there wasn't charging infrastructure I would need for longer trips, I'd buy a PHEV. Almost did, rather than a LEAF, in 2012. But I couldn't stand the Volt, the LEAF was roomy and comfy. And I'd never take the LEAF on a long trip...or so I thought.

While a lot of PiPs were undoubtedly bought mainly for HOV stickers here, I suspect that's not the primary driver here anymore. The second most common PEV I see here these days, after the Model 3, is almost certainly the Prime. It provides a far more useful and usable electric range than the PiP, while benefitting from a very large existing base of satisfied Prius owners in the area. And unlike a BEV, a PHEV doesn't constrain where you live, work or park, now or in the future. I suspect that, along with PHEVs' generally lower price, driving the shift in BEV/PHEV % split in Europe now that the initial wave of BEV buyers has largely been satisfied, as so many people live in flats and have to park curbside in non-dedicated spaces, without charging.

I think what's driving the opposite situation in China is government mandates that make it difficult if not impossible to get a license for a PHEV in many Chinese cities, along with a very strong government push to build charging. That, plus subsidies and 'cheap', small urban BEVs,
Last edited by GRA on Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4385
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: General EV sales topic

Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:55 am

GRA wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:20 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:10 pm

PHEVs are a better choice for many areas of the country. Lack of charging infrastructure makes longer trips difficult.
And unlike a BEV, a PHEV doesn't constrain where you live, work or park, now or in the future. I suspect that, along with PHEVs' generally lower price, driving the shift in BEV/PHEV % split in Europe now that the initial wave of BEV buyers has largely been satisfied, as so many people live in flats and have to park curbside in non-dedicated spaces, without charging.
Longer term, PHEVs are going to be more expensive than both BEVs and ICEs. Two drive trains is just more expensive. Charging points are eventually going to be almost everywhere, so the live, work or park limitation will be almost gone. PHEVs are a solution with a limited shelf life.

There is likely a case for a few users staying on PHEVs or ICEs very long term. Remote places, etc. Driving around at the very edge of the road network. Will likely be far more expensive as limited volume manufacturing.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 12916
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: General EV sales topic

Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:44 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:55 am
GRA wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:20 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:10 pm

PHEVs are a better choice for many areas of the country. Lack of charging infrastructure makes longer trips difficult.
And unlike a BEV, a PHEV doesn't constrain where you live, work or park, now or in the future. I suspect that, along with PHEVs' generally lower price, driving the shift in BEV/PHEV % split in Europe now that the initial wave of BEV buyers has largely been satisfied, as so many people live in flats and have to park curbside in non-dedicated spaces, without charging.
Longer term, PHEVs are going to be more expensive than both BEVs and ICEs. Two drive trains is just more expensive. Charging points are eventually going to be almost everywhere, so the live, work or park limitation will be almost gone. PHEVs are a solution with a limited shelf life.

Sure, eventually, when battery prices have dropped enough and we've been building charging infrastructure for several decades. I've always said they're an interim technology.

WetEV wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:55 am
There is likely a case for a few users staying on PHEVs or ICEs very long term. Remote places, etc. Driving around at the very edge of the road network. Will likely be far more expensive as limited volume manufacturing.
Assuming bio- or synfuels can't be produced in the necessary quantities for widespread use and ICEs are banned, it comes down to FCEVs or PHFCEVs as the only ZEV option when BEVs can't meet requirements.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12916
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: General EV sales topic

Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:22 am

GCC:
Strategy Analytics: Overall UX of BEVs does not match price point
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/0 ... -saux.html

A new report from the Strategy Analytics In-Vehicle UX (IVX) service, “Consumer Interest in EVs: Lingering Concerns Meet a COVID Bump,” surveyed car owners across the US, UK, and China regarding their interest in and concerns with BEV ownership. While interest in BEV and hybrid ownership is relatively strong in China, it was lowest in the US. To meet the goal of transitioning fleets and car buyers to all electric, governments and automakers have a substantial challenge ahead, the market research company said.

Despite a focus from governments and automakers on enviro-conscientiousness and the surge of consumer interest in Battery-Powered Electric Vehicles (BEV) seen by Strategy Analytics since 2019, concerns among the skeptics remain largely the same. The risk of being stranded somewhere without the ability to charge remains high, concerns around charging infrastructure outweigh simple battery range concerns, and the fear of BEV ownership costing more than gasoline car ownership is evermore present. Consumers will not pay more for a vehicle that looks and feels like a less expensive one, simply because it is a BEV. The overall experience needs to match the price point. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
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Re: General EV sales topic

Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:27 am

...concerns among the skeptics remain largely the same. The risk of being stranded somewhere without the ability to charge remains high, concerns around charging infrastructure outweigh simple battery range concerns, and the fear of BEV ownership costing more than gasoline car ownership is evermore present.
A small but roomy CUV or Minivan with a 25 mile range reserve accessed only through a menu (it couldn't be left on) with a price no more than $20k USD would address all of these concerns.
Brilliant Silver 2021 Leaf SV40 W/ Pro Pilot & Protection
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GRA
Posts: 12916
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: General EV sales topic

Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:28 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:27 am
...concerns among the skeptics remain largely the same. The risk of being stranded somewhere without the ability to charge remains high, concerns around charging infrastructure outweigh simple battery range concerns, and the fear of BEV ownership costing more than gasoline car ownership is evermore present.
A small but roomy CUV or Minivan with a 25 mile range reserve accessed only through a menu (it couldn't be left on) with a price no more than $20k USD would address all of these concerns.

It won't until activating a charge is as reliable as 'activating' a gas pump. In 40+ years of doing the latter I've never had a single failure.

By comparison, I was successful in activating a charger just 3 of 11 times, at a total of four different sites on my trip to the east side of the Sierra in a Bolt last October. Being an old boy scout, I'd planned my trip so that I had enough range to reach free L2s that didn't need to be activated within 25 miles of the QC I was otherwise dependent on, but which wouldn't recognize my phone or credit card.
And as a final resort, I'd given myself enough of a range reserve that, if for some reason I couldn't use the above L2s, I could creep at say 30 mph the 75 miles to Yosemite Valley, 6,000 feet down hill after the first 13 miles, and hopefully charge at one of the two free L2s in Yosemite Valley.

The main reason for the difference in reliability is simple When I buy gas, I hand cash to a human, who is responsible for activating the gas dispenser, and then all I have to do is push a button to choose the fuel grade. Aside from the human component, the fact that there's lots of competition also incentivizes high system reliability.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
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Re: General EV sales topic

Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:18 pm

We've had at least a dozen gas pump failures over the years.
Brilliant Silver 2021 Leaf SV40 W/ Pro Pilot & Protection
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 2 lithium E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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