LeftieBiker
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Re: General EV sales topic

Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:37 pm

I think that jjeff missed the part about it being California only.
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jjeff
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Re: General EV sales topic

Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:44 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:37 pm
I think that jjeff missed the part about it being California only.
Ah yes, that makes more sense then. As I've seen maybe a total of 6? Model 3's in MN since they came out but can't drive a mile without seeing an F-150, that explains it :idea:
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Zythryn
Posts: 1128
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Re: General EV sales topic

Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:07 am

jjeff wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:44 am
LeftieBiker wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:37 pm
I think that jjeff missed the part about it being California only.
Ah yes, that makes more sense then. As I've seen maybe a total of 6? Model 3's in MN since they came out but can't drive a mile without seeing an F-150, that explains it :idea:
Personal perceptions of how many of a vehicle are on the road is troubling.
As another example, I see another Tesla virtually every time I go out. However, that is mainly because I am looking for EVs on the road.
I am sure I have passed scores of F-150s for every EV I see, however I really don’t notice them beyond being a moving obstruction. So I can’t recall seeing a Ford pickup truck in the last week.
That certainly doesn’t mean they aren’t there ;)
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
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DougWantsALeaf
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Re: General EV sales topic

Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:35 am

I do miss my early ev days (for us it was 2013), when we would virtual high 5 other Leaf drivers as we passed each other.
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GRA
Posts: 12916
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Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: General EV sales topic

Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:52 pm

GCC:
Data show California BEVs at 6.7% new vehicle marketshare in Q3
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/1 ... -ccje.html

. . . The data show total new light vehicle registrations in the third quarter were down 19.6% from the same period in the prior year, an improvement over the 48.9% drop in the second quarter but still lagging well behind the overall national decline of 8.4%.

In an indication of the disparate income effects of the ongoing reopening/shutdown cycle in the state, sales of the higher cost alternative fuel vehicles held up better as higher wage workers have been more able to retain their jobs and incomes through telecommuting, according to the California Center for Jobs & The Economy.

BEV (battery electric vehicles) registrations saw a slight increase from the 3rd quarter of 2019 (from 26,210 to 27,565 units), reaching a 6.7% market share in Q3 as registrations of traditional fuel vehicles were down more sharply. YTD 2020 new vehicle marketshare for full electrics is 6.1%, up from 5.1% in 2019, according to the CNCDA.

Total PEVs (plug-in electric vehicles) however were down as the PHEV (plug-in hybrid) component continued to show its high variability over the past several quarters, dropping from 12,992 units in Q3 2019 to 5,866 in Q3 2020.

Reflecting their now consistent trend of recovery following a drop at the beginning of the year, HEVs comprised 49% of the alternative fuel registrations, up from 42% in the same period in 2019. The combustion vehicle component of this market segment—PHEVs and HEVs—overall comprised 58% of the new registrations, again indicating a continuing hesitance on the part of consumers to shift to fully electric vehicles, either because of concerns over refueling and range or due to the remaining high bump in cost.

Tesla remained the dominant producer of BEVs and consequently the primary beneficiary of the incentives and subsidies enacted by the regulatory agencies. However, Tesla sales in the quarter were down to 62% of all BEV registrations, a drop from its previous near monopoly over this segment. Future quarters will provide additional insight into whether this becomes a trend and whether the market is now evolving to a broader range of producers offering models that appeal to a larger share of consumers beyond the higher income segment targeted to date by Tesla.

While the maintenance of higher wage households has been more secure under the state’s restrictions, lower wage households have instead turned to the used vehicle market as transit use has collapsed throughout the state. The need for workers to secure alternative means to get to their jobs has seen an upsurge in prices for used vehicles both in California and the US. . . .

Currently, ZEVs comprise 6.7% of new light vehicle registrations as measured against the diminished sales base in the third quarter. The current trendline estimated from a regression of the data to date shows sales are currently on track to reach the 100% market share target sometime in 2045, according to the California Center for Jobs & The Economy. In 2035, sales would be only half of vehicles under current trends.

Substantial deviation from trend would have to begin prior to 2025 in order to meet the 2035 goal, meaning sales over the next 4 years will be a critical measure of how viable this new goal is and an indication of the costs to workers and consumers required to meet it
. Policy makers do not have to wait 15 years to determine whether the Order’s goal is viable or not, the Center observed in its report.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12916
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Re: General EV sales topic

Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:34 pm

Both IEVS:
Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales October 2020: Near Record Level
https://insideevs.com/news/457755/globa ... ober-2020/

Already more than 2.1 million plug-in electric cars were sold globally during the first ten months of 2020.
The global sales of plug-in electric cars are accelerating. In October, over 341,500 plug-ins were sold, which is 127% more than a year ago. . . .

According to EV Sales Blog, it's the highest growth rate since over eight years ago and the second-best monthly result ever (just 3,000 below September).

The plug-in car market share was 4.9% (same as in September), which means that one in 20 new cars are already rechargeable.

More than two-thirds of plug-in sales falls on all-electric cars:

BEVs: roughly 230,000 (up 125% year-over-year)
PHEVs: roughly 111,000 (up 131% year-over-year)

After ten months of this year, the total volume is above 2,126,500 (up 21% year-over-year), while the average market share is 3.5% (2.4% BEVs). . . .

were:

Tesla Model 3 - 22,755 (#1 YTD: 260,927)

Wuling's Hong Guang MINI EV - 20,631 (#3 YTD: 52,672)

Tesla Model Y - 10,602 (#4 YTD: 52,294)

Volkswagen ID.3 - 10,584 (soon to join top 20 YTD)

Renault ZOE - 9,987 (#2 YTD: 74,124)

Hyundai Kona Electric - 6,502 (#5 YTD: 45,693). . . .

Europe: Plug-In Electric Car Sales Tripled In October 2020
https://insideevs.com/news/457575/europ ... ober-2020/

. . . In total, some 146,606 new plug-in passenger cars were registered during the period (up 195% year-over-year), which represents roughly 13% of the market.

It was also a month of parity between BEVs and PHEVs:

BEVs: 73,257 (up 192% year-over-year) and 6.5% of the market

PHEVs: 73,349 (up 198% year-over-year) and 6.5% of the market.

After ten months of 2020, close to 919,000 new plug-in passenger cars were registered in Europe, which is 9.5% of the total volume (5.1% falls on BEVs)!

With two more months to be added, Europe might end at over 1.2 million and over 10% market share. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: General EV sales topic

Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:11 pm

GCC:
IHS Markit: EV registrations reached 1.8% market share in US in 2020
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/0 ... ihsev.html

Electric vehicle (EV) registrations in the US in 2020 reached record market share of 1.8%, demonstrating increased consumer interest for electric vehicles, according to new analysis from IHS Markit.

December 2020 also represented the highest monthly share for EV new registrations, at 2.5% of the industry—a record monthly level since IHS Markit began tracking new vehicle registration data by fuel type. For the purposes of this analysis, EVs reflect those vehicles only powered by electricity and no other power source.

While overall registration volumes were down across the industry for the year due to COVID-19 impacts, the fact that EVs experienced such increased share indicates rising consumer acceptance of EVs, says IHS Markit.

While I don't doubt that consumer acceptance is increasing, the above claim ignores the fact that in a serious recession sales percentages inevitably increase towards higher-priced vehicles, as the people who still have jobs tend to be those with higher incomes, and they're the people who are still buying cars. Teslas aren't mass-market priced.

From a retail perspective, EVs accounted for 2.8% of new vehicle registrations in December, according to the analysis, more than tripling EV retail share three years ago. This rising EV acceptance coincides with recent OEM announcements of substantial investments in electrification.

Further development of EV share in the US in 2021 is nearly guaranteed. IHS Markit forecasts EV sales in 2021 will surpass 3.5% nationally, and continue to increase to more than 10% in 2025. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12916
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: General EV sales topic

Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:46 pm

GCR:
EVs will be 10% of the US market by 2025—but San Francisco is already past that
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... -past-that

. . . EVs reached 1.8% of U.S. new-vehicle registrations in 2020—a new record—rising to 2.8% in December, according to the study. Analysts predict that will increase to 3.5% in 2021, and reach double digits by 2025, helped by an influx of new all-electric models.

EV registrations vary widely by region, though. They're already at 4.8% in the West, and 11% in San Francisco, according to the study. On the other hand, EVs represented just 0.8% of the market in the Midwest in 2020, and 0.9% in the Southwest.

In the Northeast—where most states have adopted California's stricter emissions standards, but not its zero-emission vehicle mandate—EVs attained 1.6% market share. That wasn't much higher than the Southeast, where electric cars represented 1.1% of new-vehicle registrations.

EVs gained significant global market share in 2020 despite losses due to the coronavirus pandemic and resulting economic woes. Globally, EV sales are anticipated to pass sales of gas-powered models sometime in the mid to late 2030s, according to recent analysis.

As the IHS Markit study indicated, though, some regions had more robust sales growth than others. In California, EV sales surged, growing from 4.6% in 2018 to 6.2% in 2020, according to the California New Car Dealers Association. Hybrids also saw a sales increase in 2020, but plug-in hybrid sales fell, according to the same data.

California has been the leader of electric-car adoption in the U.S., thanks to strict emissions standards, supportive policies, and incentives. The new question is whether the rest of the nation can catch up. . . .

Much as I'd like to be encouraged by the growth in market share, I expect it's mainly an artifact of reduced overall sales due to the pandemic, and the resulting shift towards a higher percentage of sales being more expensive cars generally, including BEVs.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: General EV sales topic

Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:13 am

GRA wrote:
Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:46 pm
Much as I'd like to be encouraged by the growth in market share, I expect it's mainly an artifact if reduced overall sales due to the pandemic, and the resulting shift towards a higher percentage of sales being more expensive cars generally, including BEVs.
Change happen. "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

By focusing on the noise, you are ignoring the signal.
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
Posts: 12916
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: General EV sales topic

Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:24 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:13 am
GRA wrote:
Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:46 pm
Much as I'd like to be encouraged by the growth in market share, I expect it's mainly an artifact if reduced overall sales due to the pandemic, and the resulting shift towards a higher percentage of sales being more expensive cars generally, including BEVs.
Change happen. "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

By focusing on the noise, you are ignoring the signal.

We disagree on which currently constitutes the signal, and which the noise.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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