GCR: global interest in Electric cars surging, autonomous tech stalling

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...lectric-cars-surging-autonomous-tech-stalling

Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.

GRA said:

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...lectric-cars-surging-autonomous-tech-stalling

Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.

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Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.

WetEV said:

GRA said:

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...lectric-cars-surging-autonomous-tech-stalling

Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.

Click to expand...

Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.

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Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now. Whenever BEVs have achieved price/performance parity, no one's going to pay more for an ICE unless there's simply no charging infrastructure for them to use. As it is, 59% (worldwide) said they'd prefer a non-hybrid ICE for their next car, which is down from 71% last year - U.S. consumers were less enthusiastic at 65% non-hybrid ICE/35% AFV. Course, that doesn't mean the 41% or 35% are actually going to buy an AFV.

GRA said:

WetEV said:

GRA said:

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...lectric-cars-surging-autonomous-tech-stalling

Lots of good data. Gas prices remain the major factor for interest in BEVs, and Germany leads the U.S. in range demanded.

Click to expand...

Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.

Click to expand...

Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now.

Click to expand...

It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.

What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?

GRA said:

Whenever BEVs have achieved price/performance parity, no one's going to pay more for an ICE unless there's simply no charging infrastructure for them to use.

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For some people, TCO price/performance parity has happened. Some corner cases will stay with ICE as long as they can. Some for price/performance, some for Tradition.

WetEV said:

GRA said:

WetEV said:

Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.

Click to expand...

Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now.

Click to expand...

It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.

What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?

Click to expand...

Then BEVs will make up just 4% of the market. How does this significantly change things?

WetEV said:

GRA said:

Whenever BEVs have achieved price/performance parity, no one's going to pay more for an ICE unless there's simply no charging infrastructure for them to use.

Click to expand...

For some people, TCO price/performance parity has happened. Some corner cases will stay with ICE as long as they can. Some for price/performance, some for Tradition.

Click to expand...

The number who will stay with them for tradition is likely to be a very small niche, especially as the boomers stop driving, whether entirely, or due to switching to AVs. As for the rest, most people aren't into cars enough to care - they just want to get where they're going, quickly and conveniently as possible at a reasonable cost, and they'll choose whichever tech allows them to do that in their situation.

GRA said:

WetEV said:

GRA said:

Seems like the correct question to me, as ICEs make up 98% of the market now.

Click to expand...

It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.

What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?

Click to expand...

Then BEVs will make up just 4% of the market. How does this significantly change things?

Click to expand...

What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 92% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 84% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 68% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 36% of the market?

"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

-- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

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Keep dreaming DoE thinks that around 70% of vehicles sold in 2030 will still be straight gas burners. With 10% being hybrids and plug ins and 20% being all electric.

I would like to see more electrics faster, every electric vehicle sold is that much more gasoline and oil that can be exported.

Maybe the government really needs to dump the EV rebates and tax credits and get a realistic carbon tax on gasoline (like $3/gallon or more). That would help swing the market far better.

WetEV said:

GRA said:

WetEV said:

It was even more correct two years ago, when ICEs made up 99% of the market.
Still more correct four years ago, when ICEs made up 99.5% of the market.

What about 2 or 3 years from now, when ICEs make up 96% of the market?

Click to expand...

Then BEVs will make up just 4% of the market. How does this significantly change things?

Click to expand...

What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 92% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 84% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 68% of the market?
What about 2 to 3 years after that, when ICEs make up 36% of the market?

"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

-- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

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Click to expand...

Until we're talking about 50% BEVs the significance is limited, although I suspect we may see an inflection point at around 15%. The question is whether we have enough time for this to happen gradually before we cross the climate tipping point and are stuck with a new one for hundreds of years or more - I hope so, but suspect not.

GRA said:

WetEV said:

"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

-- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Until we're talking about 50% BEVs the significance is limited,

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Limited to whom? If the ICE makers wait for 50% BEVs they are gone. Or even 15% BEVs. Actually, it is already getting close to the time for the ICE makers to panic, considering the lead time needed for development, design and ramping up production. If they get too far behind, they are gone. Oh yes, not right away. Gradually, then suddenly.

GRA said:

although I suspect we may see an inflection point at around 15%.

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What exactly do you mean by an "inflection point"? How about showing what it would look like with an example.

GRA said:

The question is whether we have enough time for this to happen gradually before we cross the climate tipping point and are stuck with the new one for hundreds of years or more - I hope so, but suspect not.

Click to expand...

That's a different question. Electric cars are going to be the cars of the future because they are better as cars, not because of environmental reasons. Even looking at environmental reasons, dirty air in cities is probably a larger reason in many cases. Subsidies and mandates for environmental reasons are just speeding up the transition to EVs, not doing something new or different.

Climate is a slowly reacting beast. Not decades, like major economic changes or hundreds of years, but more likely many thousands of years. The E-folding time of Carbon outside of geologic storage is around 100k years. Better like the new climate.

Oh yes tax everything and every one till it's successful.
If electric vehicles really are better then why all the taxes and credits?

Let's just wait till the next ipcc report comes out in 2022 before making any rash decision.
I hear it's going to be a good one.

Oilpan4 said:

Oh yes tax everything and every one till it's successful.
If electric vehicles really are better then why all the taxes and credits?

Let's just wait till the next ipcc report comes out in 2022 before making any rash decision.
I hear it's going to be a good one.

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What are you going to do when Putin dies?

WetEV said:

GRA said:

Until we're talking about 50% BEVs the significance is limited,

Click to expand...

Limited to whom? If the ICE makers wait for 50% BEVs they are gone. Or even 15% BEVs. Actually, it is already getting close to the time for the ICE makers to panic, considering the lead time needed for development, design and ramping up production. If they get too far behind, they are gone. Oh yes, not right away. Gradually, then suddenly.

Click to expand...

Your original point was that

Didn't ask the correct question, long term.

Not how many people will pay $500 more for an EV, but how many people will pay $1000 or $2000 more for an ICE? That will be the question in another decade.

Click to expand...

Only when ICEs start to seem dumb to a majority of people will your question be the right (significant) one to ask.

WetEV said:

GRA said:

although I suspect we may see an inflection point at around 15%.

Click to expand...

What exactly do you mean by an "inflection point"? How about showing what it would look like with an example.

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The point at which there's a noticeable kink in the adoption line, when the general public suddenly starts to say "okay, a BEV might make sense for me", and then they actually buy one, at a rapidly increasing rate.

WetEV said:

GRA said:

The question is whether we have enough time for this to happen gradually before we cross the climate tipping point and are stuck with the new one for hundreds of years or more - I hope so, but suspect not.

Click to expand...

That's a different question. Electric cars are going to be the cars of the future because they are better as cars, not because of environmental reasons. Even looking at environmental reasons, dirty air in cities is probably a larger reason in many cases. Subsidies and mandates for environmental reasons are just speeding up the transition to EVs, not doing something new or different.

Climate is a slowly reacting beast. Not decades, like major economic changes or hundreds of years, but more likely many thousands of years. The E-folding time of Carbon outside of geologic storage is around 100k years. Better like the new climate.

Click to expand...

The problem is, as always, that until the public thinks they're better cars (or the government gives them no choice in the matter, as is only beginning to happen in few places), adoption growth will remain far too slow to help much.

WetEV said:

Oilpan4 said:

Oh yes tax everything and every one till it's successful.
If electric vehicles really are better then why all the taxes and credits?

Let's just wait till the next ipcc report comes out in 2022 before making any rash decision.
I hear it's going to be a good one.

Click to expand...

What are you going to do when Putin dies?

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Celebrate.
So you can't answer the question?
What are you so worried about?

Oilpan4 said:

WetEV said:

What are you going to do when Putin dies?

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Celebrate.

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But Trump will be so sad... Don't you feel his pain?

I guess you didn't see the last debate, they don't need the Russians this time.