WetEV
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:32 pm

GRA wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:55 pm
As I've previously mentioned, the city of San Francisco alone has something over 200k curbside parking spaces, but let's call it 200k to make the math easy, and round the cost per EVSE up to $5,000 for the same reason (x2 per station = $10k). So, to cover every curbside parking space in San Francisco, that's $1 billion in current-year dollars. As San Francisco's annual budget for this (Covid) fiscal year is $13.7 billion, and is forecast to be $12.6 billion next fiscal year, as you can see we're talking an extremely hefty chunk of change even spread over a period of years, and that's for one wealthy U.S. city (with a very high take rate of PEVs).
So over 12 years, the average lifetime on the road of a car in the USA, $1,000 million /12 or $80 million a year. Or 0.6% of the budget. That's the absolute maximum needed capital expenditure. More likely would take longer, and costs would reduce with time

There would also be yearly expenses such as electric power and maintenance, and yearly revenue from charging fees.

Somehow I'm missing the problem here.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:32 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:55 pm
As I've previously mentioned, the city of San Francisco alone has something over 200k curbside parking spaces, but let's call it 200k to make the math easy, and round the cost per EVSE up to $5,000 for the same reason (x2 per station = $10k). So, to cover every curbside parking space in San Francisco, that's $1 billion in current-year dollars. As San Francisco's annual budget for this (Covid) fiscal year is $13.7 billion, and is forecast to be $12.6 billion next fiscal year, as you can see we're talking an extremely hefty chunk of change even spread over a period of years, and that's for one wealthy U.S. city (with a very high take rate of PEVs).
So over 12 years, the average lifetime on the road of a car in the USA, $1,000 million /12 or $80 million a year. Or 0.6% of the budget. That's the absolute maximum needed capital expenditure. More likely would take longer, and costs would reduce with time

There would also be yearly expenses such as electric power and maintenance, and yearly revenue from charging fees.

Somehow I'm missing the problem here.
Have you forgotten that's just half of the publicly available spaces (i.e. you also have the public parking lots and garages, plus you also need to provide charging at all the MUDs with off-street parking? And that's for a wealthy city, with an already very clean energy supply. Oh, and that assumes that there's private capital to cover the rest of the cost.

BTW, 12 years isn't the average lifetime, it's the average age currently. Quebec's minimum wage is currently $11.14 U.S., while California's is $14 currently, and will increase to $15 next year. I doubt that electricians are making minimum wage. Now try doing the same thing is say Fresno (5th most populous California city; S.F. is #4), with a lot of low-wage farmworkers rather than high-wage techies.

Let's see, if you were to build 500k L2 chargers annually nationwide, rather than over 8 years (i.e. 62.5k/yr) as Biden's plan calls for, then to cover the 57.2 million households in existing housing without access to charging with a single charger each would take 114 years. Since housing lasts an average of 100 years, we'll assume that you only need to retrofit half that many (and that all new housing is built with charging, although only a few jurisdictions have required that in their building codes yet), it will only take 57 years to accomplish, or the end of 2079, assuming absolutely no population growth; at the planned rate it would take eight times longer or 456 years, minus whatever is done locally. Do you think we can wait until 2079?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:38 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:32 pm
Somehow I'm missing the problem here.
Have you forgotten that's just half of the publicly available spaces (i.e. you also have the public parking lots and garages, plus you also need to provide charging at all the MUDs with off-street parking?
""You" need to"? Who is this "you"?

Lots with rates $3 per hour? At the hourly rate that's $26,280 per year. Seems likely that such a business can afford capital improvements to improve revenue.

https://www.sfmta.com/garages-lots/pierce-street-lot

Or a $44 per day parking garage? Or $7 per hour during the day? Gotta be kidding me. Somehow I'm missing the problem here.

GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
And that's for a wealthy city, with an already very clean energy supply. Oh, and that assumes that there's private capital to cover the rest of the cost.
Charging stations are a small cost for a wealthy city. Somehow I'm missing the problem here.

GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
BTW, 12 years isn't the average lifetime, it's the average age currently.
Good point. Average age will be roughly about half of average lifetime. So I've estimated twice as much capital as actually required. 24 years, and 0.3% of city government spending. A smaller fraction of total spending and total wealth.

Somehow I'm missing the problem here.

GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
Now try doing the same thing is say Fresno (5th most populous California city; S.F. is #4), with a lot of low-wage farmworkers rather than high-wage techies.
Gasoline is a higher fraction of low-wage earners cost of living. Electric power is cheaper. I suspect that there might be a solution that makes things better for low-wage earners.

GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
Do you think we can wait until 2079?
Issue isn't linear, so linear projection of end date is meaningless.
WetEV
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:31 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:38 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:32 pm
Somehow I'm missing the problem here.
Have you forgotten that's just half of the publicly available spaces (i.e. you also have the public parking lots and garages, plus you also need to provide charging at all the MUDs with off-street parking?
""You" need to"? Who is this "you"?
The City and County of San Francisco, of course.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:38 pm
Lots with rates $3 per hour? At the hourly rate that's $26,280 per year. Seems likely that such a business can afford capital improvements to improve revenue.

https://www.sfmta.com/garages-lots/pierce-street-lot

Or a $44 per day parking garage? Or $7 per hour during the day? Gotta be kidding me. Somehow I'm missing the problem here.

Then you're unaware of real estate prices in S.F.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:38 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
And that's for a wealthy city, with an already very clean energy supply. Oh, and that assumes that there's private capital to cover the rest of the cost.
Charging stations are a small cost for a wealthy city. Somehow I'm missing the problem here.

GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
BTW, 12 years isn't the average lifetime, it's the average age currently.
Good point. Average age will be roughly about half of average lifetime. So I've estimated twice as much capital as actually required. 24 years, and 0.3% of city government spending. A smaller fraction of total spending and total wealth.

Somehow I'm missing the problem here.

Yes you are. If the government were free to spend money on a single thing, it wouldn't be a problem, but of course there are many other areas with constituencies demanding that more money be spent in their area of concern. Oh, and don't forget that we'll simultaneously need to increase renewable electricity production greatly, plus upgrade transmission and distribution lines. S.F. has it's own electric utility (Hetch Hetchy), so they'll be paying for most of that themselves.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:38 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
Now try doing the same thing is say Fresno (5th most populous California city; S.F. is #4), with a lot of low-wage farmworkers rather than high-wage techies.
Gasoline is a higher fraction of low-wage earners cost of living. Electric power is cheaper. I suspect that there might be a solution that makes things better for low-wage earners.

Except electricity isn't cheaper at public charging stations, which is where most of those workers will be charging for the next several decades. It sure as hell isn't around here, and the Bay Area has the highest gas prices of any metro area in the country. Fuel prices in the central valley are a lot lower.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:38 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:34 pm
Do you think we can wait until 2079?
Issue isn't linear, so linear projection of end date is meaningless.

Except that according to most forecasts, we'll be in a world of hurt if we don't get to net-zero carbon by 2050, and maybe even that won't be enough.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:24 pm

GRA wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:31 pm
Yes you are. If the government were free to spend money on a single thing, it wouldn't be a problem, but of course there are many other areas with constituencies demanding that more money be spent in their area of concern. Oh, and don't forget that we'll simultaneously need to increase renewable electricity production greatly, plus upgrade transmission and distribution lines. S.F. has it's own electric utility (Hetch Hetchy), so they'll be paying for most of that themselves.
0.3% of current spending. That's a insurmountable problem. I'm done.
WetEV
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:27 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:24 pm
GRA wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:31 pm
Yes you are. If the government were free to spend money on a single thing, it wouldn't be a problem, but of course there are many other areas with constituencies demanding that more money be spent in their area of concern. Oh, and don't forget that we'll simultaneously need to increase renewable electricity production greatly, plus upgrade transmission and distribution lines. S.F. has it's own electric utility (Hetch Hetchy), so they'll be paying for most of that themselves.
0.3% of current spending. That's a insurmountable problem. I'm done.

Insurmountable, no, but difficult given all the other calls for the money, plus all the extra required expenses in other areas, absolutely.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

danrjones
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Thu Jun 24, 2021 2:38 pm

According to CNN (linked below) the bipartisan infrastructure agreement plan DOES include 7.5 billion for EV infrastructure, chargers
Some quick math to check that sanity, if a DC Fast charger is costing 40k each, then 7.5 billion would give you:
187,500 chargers.

The article mentions 500k chargers, but doesn't mention cost per charger, Lvl2 or whatnot. I went with 40k because that's what I've heard before for chargepoint.

So the cost isn't exponentially off but still seems optimistic.

That equates to 3750 chargers on average per state. That's not bad if they are DC Fast chargers.




https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/politics ... index.html
Last edited by danrjones on Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Thu Jun 24, 2021 2:58 pm

What we need is about 3/4 DCFC and 1/4 L-2, with the latter in places where people will stay at least an hour.
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:20 pm

The 500k will mostly be L2. California's recent analysis showed we needed far more L2 than DCFC:
In 2018, Executive Order B-48-18 set a goal of having 250,000 chargers (including 10,000
direct current fast chargers) by 2025. As of January 4, 2021, California has installed more than
70,000 public and shared chargers, including nearly 6,000 direct current fast chargers. This
report finds that an additional 123,000 are planned, of which about 13,600 are fast chargers,
which leaves a gap of about 57,000 installations, including 430 fast chargers, from
the 250,000 chargers goal.

For passenger vehicle charging in 2030, this report projects over 700,000 public and shared
private chargers are needed to support 5 million ZEVs, and nearly 1.2 million to support about
8 million ZEVs anticipated under Executive Order N-79-20
. . . .
  • Table 7: Projected Chargers Needed to Support Intraregional Travel for 8 Million Light-Duty ZEVs in 2030

    Plug Type Staff Report (Draft) Results (1000 plugs) Revised Staff Report Results (1000 plugs)
    -------------------------Low Average High- Low Average High
    MUDs (Level 1+2) ---- 258 287 316 ------ 265 330 395
    Work (Level 2) -------- 556 572 588 ------ 324 327 330
    Public (Level 2) --------600 617.5 635 ---- 466 470 474
    All L1 and 2 ---------- 1,414 1,476.5 1,539- 1,055 1,127 1,199
    Public (DC FC) ---------- 53.1 54.5 55.9 ------- 30.2 30.6 31
    Total Chargers ----- 1,467.1 1,531 1,594.9 1,085.2 1,157.6 1,230
. . . .

Modeling Results

Table 9 shows the number of needed DC fast chargers and stations in 2030 to support the
BEV fleet of more than 5 million vehicles per CARB’s Draft 2020 Mobile Source Strategy.54
These results show that California will need between 2,108 and 7,408 DC fast chargers
(average of 4,758) located at 1,039 to 1,338 stations (average of 1,189) to support electric
interregional travel. These numbers assume drivers will unplug their vehicle from DC fast
chargers when the battery reaches around 80 percent state of charge, as charging power (in
other words, charging speed) diminishes significantly once the battery reaches higher states of
charge.

53 Wood, Eric, Dong-Yeon (D-Y) Lee, Nicholas Reinicke, Yanbo Ge, and Erin Burnell (National Renewable Energy
Laboratory). 2020. “Presentation — Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection Tool (EVI-Pro).” Integrated Energy
Policy Report August 6, 2020, Workshop. https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/getdocume ... ?tn=234215.
54 CARB’s Draft 2020 Mobile Source Strategy calls for nearly 8 million ZEVs in 2030. Of this total, more than 5.2
million are BEVs, and EVI-RoadTrip models only the DC fast charging needs to enable long-distance interregional
travel for these BEVs.

41
Table 9: DC Fast Charging Infrastructure Needed to Support 2030 Interregional
  • Electric Travel for BEVs
    Result Low Average High
    DC Fast Charge Stations 1,039 1,189 1,338
    DC Fast Chargers --------- 2,108 4,758 7,408
    Source: CEC and National Renewable Energy Laboratory
[url]file:///C:/Users/CSVAPUB10/Downloads/TN238032_20210528T105427_Assembly%20Bill%202127%20Electric%20Vehicle%20Charging%20Infrastructure%20Assessment%20(Rev.pdf[/url]

See the map on page 42 which shows the existing DCFC stations and the needed locations to meet the projected 2030 need - we can dream of the day when the number of DCFC stations is that widespread and dense.
That being said, given the length of time it will take to install the needed number of L2s at MUDs etc., urban DCFCs should be front-loaded to allow apartment dwellers to use BEVs.

Note, the CEC uses DC "FC" rather than "QC", and uses "charger" for both individual L1/2 EVSEs and DCFCs, with "charging stations" used in the same sense as "gas stations". I'm going to conform to their usage from here on out. They know the difference between an EVSE and a DC charger, but to the average user they're effectively all chargers and there's no sense being pedantic about it in general usage. When it's necessary to be specific that's one thing, but for most people most of the time it isn't.

"DCFC" and "Fast Charger(s)" are the terms used by the DOE's Alternative Fuels Data Center and IIRR the SAE.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Government subsidies/perks/mandates for EVs

Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:30 pm

GCC:
Government of Canada sets mandatory target of 100% zero-emission car and passenger truck sales by 2035 in Canada
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/0 ... anada.html

The Government of Canada is setting a mandatory target for all new light-duty cars and passenger trucks sales to be zero-emission by 2035, accelerating Canada’s previous goal of 100% sales by 2040.

The Government of Canada will pursue a combination of investments and regulations to help Canadians and industry transition to achieve the 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035. It will work also with partners to develop interim 2025 and 2030 targets, and additional mandatory measures that may be needed beyond Canada’s light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emissions regulations.

The announcement is coupled with existing measures to support increased zero-emission vehicle adoption—from incentives that help with the upfront costs of zero-emission vehicles, to investments in zero-emission charging infrastructure, to partnerships with auto manufacturers which are helping them re-tool and produce zero-emission vehicles in Canada.

The Government of Canada says it also remains committed to aligning with the most ambitious light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emission regulations in the United States.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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