Stoaty
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:32 pm

craig wrote:I will readily agree that we are going through a period of climate change: I just don't buy the leftist line that we are the cause of it. This is a manufactured lie being pushed with the ultimate goal an elitist group gaining control over the mass of mankind.
Time to take off that tinfoil hat and see the rest of the world. Conspiracy theories not needed here.
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craig
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:58 pm

Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you. :)
Follow the money, friend: just who is profiting from this manufactured hysteria? Who is gaining money and control?
I would suggest, though, that there is far more evidence to support the existence of a 'control conspiracy' than there is to support the theory of man caused climate change.
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wwhitney
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:03 pm

craig wrote: 1. Actually, for the last ten years, the earth's surface has been in a cooling trend.
Unfortunately, that's not true. Statements of this form come about by cherry picking a recent year that was really unusually hot, and starting your time period at that point. By picking an unusually hot starting year, the drop in average temperature from year 1 to year 2 shifts the trend over the whole time interval. But if you look over any other time period, like 15 years, or 5 years, or 20 years, the underlying warming trend is obvious. See, for example, the graph of Global Mean Surface Temperature at:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Featur ... /page2.php
craig wrote: 3. Humanity has been breathing out for eons, as has every other living creature.
Yes, but the burning of fossil fuels has caused a sharp spike in CO2 output, compared to geologic time scales.
craig wrote: 5. The earth is a 'living' thing, and goes through cycles in tectonic activity, weather activity, etc. These changes have been dated back hundreds of centuries, and cannot be exclusively blamed on mankind.
Agreed.
craig wrote: The Little Ice Age, the Medieval warming Period, etc, are well documented changes in our climate, none of which can be linked to human activity as a causative factor.
The Medieval Warming Period was primarily a North Atlantic phenomenon, global average temperatures did not rise much (the rest of the planet was cooler than average).

The cause of the Little Ice Age is unclear, but it apparently does correspond with a small decrease in incoming solar radiation. There is no corresponding increase in solar radiation during the last few decades that could explain the current warming trend.
craig wrote: A single major volcanic eruption puts more greenhouse gasses in the air than all of mankinds activities for the last three hundred years.
You're off about about 4-5 orders of magnitude, volcanoes are producing on the order of 1% of the CO2 that humankind's activities are. See, for example,

https://www.skepticalscience.com/volcan ... arming.htm

BTW, increased volcanic activity actually cools the planet, as it puts aerosols into the upper atmosphere that reflect incoming solar radiation before it can reach the surface. Increased volcanic activity is another possible cause for the Little Ice Age.

So as I say, there are no other plausible explanations for the current observed increase in heat trapping by the atmosphere. Many people have looked at this and failed to find any other explanation that holds up scientifically.

Cheers, Wayne
Last edited by wwhitney on Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:04 pm

Follow the money, friend: just who is profiting from this manufactured hysteria?
The Chinese, by lagging behind in reducing carbon emissions.

Who is gaining money and control?
The Chinese are "gaining money" and no one is "gaining control" as international standards are voluntary, and national regulation remains the province of the EPA. So I guess that, by your reasoning, this is a joint conspiracy between the Chinese government and the US EPA. Nice work.
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Stoaty
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:33 pm

craig wrote:Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you. :)
As someone who treats people with serious paranoia, I think this discussion has about run its course. You have made your position clear, others can decide for themselves whether to stick with science or join the conspiracy theory bandwagon.
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GRA
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:23 pm

Just to add some historical perspective, i.e. "we've been here before": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Gors ... inistrator

And here's James Watt v. 2: http://thehill.com/policy/energy-enviro ... ary-report

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_G._ ... e_Interior

I had hoped that the environmental fights of the Reagan years would be once and done, but I guess the time's come for a sequel.
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:35 pm

The thread that causes the "masks" to come off.
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craig
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 8:38 pm

Most folks have made up their minds on this issue, and an internet forum discussion is not going to convert anyone who does not want to be converted.
Thanks for a civil discussion, and continue to enjoy going electric!.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:34 pm

I don't know how much it will affect opinions, but I see a major gap what the climate change deniers know about carbon dioxide, aka CO2, and would like to try to explain its importance. (Please keep in mind that the following isn't disputed by any scientists other than 'Biblical Literalists'. I may have made a few unintended factual errors, which I would like corrected as needed.)

* The Earth's atmosphere was, when life on Earth was entirely microbial, originally very high in CO2. It was also very hot then, because of the Greenhouse Effect, and from residual heat from the formation of the planet. Microbes ingested nutrients like sulfur, and gave off carbon dioxide and methane.

* As plants evolved into existence from bacteria with masses of chlorophyl, taking in CO2 when exposed to sunlight, and producing oxygen as a waste product, two major things happened, according to the geologic and bacterial fossil records:

1. Most of the then-existing life on Earth died off, because it was not able to tolerate oxygen (aka "anaerobic life"). Oxygen, being highly reactive (think "rust") was toxic to organisms that didn't evolve to use it in their metabolisms.

2. The atmosphere cooled, because oxygen lets heat escape into space much more readily than does CO2 or methane. This began the first of many cycles in which atmospheric CO2 rose and fell, with the global temperatures, most easily measured by sea levels, rising and falling along with or slightly behind CO2 levels.

* During periods of higher oxygen levels, plants were large, densely populated, and were found everywhere on the planet - including the poles. As they 'sucked up' CO2 from the atmosphere, the temperatures gradually cooled, many of the plants died, and their dead "bodies" trapped carbon taken from the atmosphere below the surface of the ground and the floors of the oceans. This dead plant matter (not, for the most part, dead animals like dinosaurs as commonly imagined) was changed, by heat, pressure and time, into fossil fuels, most commonly coal near the surface and oil deeper down, with natural gas mixed in. As this happened, the atmosphere cooled because CO2 levels fell.

* As a result of the explosion in plant life, and the accumulation of dead plant matter below the surface, a substantial portion of the CO2 became locked into subsurface carbon deposits (coal, oil, natural gas) and the wild swings in atmospheric temperatures stabilized somewhat, because they no longer had such large amounts of easily-released carbon to produce carbon dioxide.

* Enter humanity. Actually, nothing much happened as a result of our hunter-gatherer phase. When we started engaging in large-scale agriculture we had modest effects on the climate, but they tended to somewhat cancel out, as we both trapped carbon in fields of plants and released it by burning plants and clearing trees.

* The Industrial Age arrives. Now we are beginning to mine and drill for that trapped carbon, and are beginning to burn it in large amounts. Even now, at this stage, there is a certain mitigating effect on atmospheric temperatures, as our burning of coal tends to block some solar radiation from reaching Earth's surface even as we are releasing carbon dioxide. The atmosphere does start to warm, but it's gradual and uneven.

* The Twentieth Century arrives. The industrialization of the Western world goes into high gear, the deforestation of the surface accelerates, and with the widespread adoption of petroleum as fuel for both vehicles and homes, the production of sun-blocking soot begins to fall well behind the release of carbon dioxide into the air. Still, there are some planetary processes and systems that tend to slow the speed of changes in atmospheric temps. One very big one is the oceans, which can absorb huge amounts of CO2. The changes are still happening, but they seem to be centuries-slow, and not an immediate threat.

* The Twenty-First Century dawns. Fossil fuel consumption is enormous and still growing. The modest air pollution control measures adopted at the end of the Twentieth Century have made the air relatively clear, allowing in more sunlight from space. The oceans are still absorbing CO2, but the process is making them increasingly acidic, resulting in dying coral reefs and an increasing threat to the vast number of sea creatures that rely on shells, which are made from calcium in sea water and don't fare well in acidic water. Humanity is both destroying large areas of forest and making large areas of the oceans nearly empty of life. Storms, which are fueled by heat, become more intense on average...

Speaking of averages, the best way to understand global climate change (and the actual reason it is no longer called "global warming") is to picture a pair of dice. Better yet, make it one large "die" (the singular of dice) with, say, ten sides. In the early Twentieth Century, six of those sides would read "NORMAL WEATHER". Two would read "HOTTER WEATHER" and two would read "COLDER WEATHER". Cast that die in 1900 and the odds would be very much in favor of a normal/average year. In the year 2000, though, picture the same die having four "NORMAL" sides, four 'HOT" sides and two "COLD" sides. As you roll it now, the most likely outcome is a hot year. It's important to note, though, that cold years are still possible, just less likely than in the past. And as more years are Hot and fewer are Cold, the average temperature increases, even with the occasional colder year. By the mid Twenty-First Century, the Die will have 8 HOT sides, one NORMAL and one COLD. Even in otherwise "normal" years, storms will continue to increase in strength and in some cases duration. Disruption of the polar (especially the North polar) wind patterns will result in more frequent "polar vortexes" that bring down cold weather farther South than in centuries past, even as the overall climate continues to warm.

OK, I quit. My fingers are killing me.
Last edited by LeftieBiker on Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Firetruck41
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Re: Let The Dismantling Begin: Climate-Change Denier Scott Pruitt Trump’s Pick For New EPA Chief

Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:02 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:I don't know how much it will affect opinions, but I see a major gap what the climate change deniers know about carbon dioxide, aka CO2, and would like to try to explain its importance. (Please keep in mind that the following isn't disputed by any scientists other than 'Biblical Literalists'. I may have made a few unintended factual errors, which I would like corrected as needed.)

* The Earth's atmosphere was, when life on Earth was entirely microbial, originally very high in CO2. It was also very hot then, because of the Greenhouse Effect. Microbes ingested things like sulfur, and gave off carbon dioxide and methane.

* As plants evolved into being, taking in CO2 when exposed to sunlight, and producing oxygen as a waste product, two major things happened, according to the geologic and bacterial fossil records:

1. Most of the life on Earth died off, because it was not able to tolerate oxygen (aka "anaerobic"). Oxygen, being highly reactive (think "rust") was toxic to organisms that didn't evolve to use it in their metabolisms.

2. The atmosphere cooled, because oxygen lets heat escape into space much more readily than does CO2 or methane. This began the first of many cycles in which atmospheric CO2 rose and fell, with the global temperatures, most easily measured by sea levels, rising and falling along with or slightly behind CO2 levels.

* During periods of higher oxygen levels, plants were large, densely populated, and were found everywhere on the planet. As they 'sucked up' CO2 from the atmosphere, the temperatures gradually cooled, many of the plants died, and their dead "bodies" trapped carbon taken from the atmosphere below the surface of the ground and the floors of the oceans. This dead plant matter (not, for the most part, dead animals like dinosaurs) was changed, by heat, pressure and time, into fossil fuels, most commonly coal near the surface and oil deeper down. As this happened, the atmosphere cooled because CO2 levels fell.

* As a result of the explosion in plant life, a substantial portion of the CO2 became locked into subsurface carbon deposits (coal, oil, natural gas) and the wild swings in atmospheric temperatures stabilized somewhat, because they no longer had large amounts of easily-released carbon to produce carbon dioxide.

* Enter humanity. Actually, nothing much happened as a result of our hunter-gatherer phase. When we started engaging in large-scale agriculture we had modest effects on the climate, but they tended to somewhat cancel out, as we both trapped carbon in fields of plants and released it by burning plants and clearing trees.

* The Industrial Age arrives. Now we are beginning to mine and drill for that trapped carbon, and are beginning to burn it in large amounts. Even now, there is a certain mitigating effect on atmospheric temperatures, as our burning of coal tends to block some solar radiation from reaching Earth's surface even as we are releasing carbon dioxide. The atmosphere does start to warm, but it's gradual and uneven.

* The Twentieth Century arrives. The industrialization of the Western world goes into high gear, the deforestation of the surface accelerates, and with the widespread adoption of petroleum as fuel for both vehicles and homes, the production of sun-blocking soot begins to fall well behind the release of carbon dioxide into the air. Still, there are some planetary processes that tend to slow the speed of changes in atmospheric temps. One big one is the oceans, which can absorb huge amounts of CO2. The changes are still happening, but they seem to be centuries-slow, and not an immediate threat.

* The Twenty-First Century dawns. Fossil fuel consumption is enormous and still growing. The modest air pollution control measures adopted at the end of the Twentieth Century have made the air relatively clear, allowing in more sunlight from space. The oceans are still absorbing CO2, but the process is making them increasingly acidic, resulting in dying coral reefs and an increasing threat to the vast number of sea creatures that rely on shells, which are made from sea water and don't fare well in acidic water. Humanity is both destroying large areas of forest and making large areas of the oceans nearly empty of life. Storms, which are fueled by heat, become more intense on average...

Speaking of averages, the best way to understand global climate change (and the actual reason it is no longer called "global warming") is to picture a pair of dice. Better yet, make it one large "die" (the singular of dice) with, say, ten sides. In the early Twentieth Century, six of those sides would read "NORMAL WEATHER". Two would read "HOTTER WEATHER" and two would read "COLDER WEATHER". Cast that die in 1900 and the odds would be very much in favor of a normal/average year. In the year 2000, though, picture the same die having four "NORMAL" sides, four 'HOT" sides and two "COLD" sides. As you roll it now, the most likely outcome if a hot year. It's important to note, though, that cold years are still possible, just less likely than in the past. And as more years are Hot and fewer are Cold, the average temperature increases, even with the occasional colder year. By the mid Twenty-First Century, the Die will have 8 HOT sides, one NORMAL and one COLD...

OK, I quit. My fingers are killing me.
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