The "ultimate" target for a fuel cell cost is $30/kW, which already covers 36 kWh of a battery in a Tesla with a 150 kW motor TODAY
Then there is that trifling issue of fuel costs differences, currently up to > 30x fold and the cost of infrastructure, at 100x fold difference.
I'm inclined to speculate that FC costs have not dropped like the battery due to scale differences, and basic research advances will help both in somewhat equal measures. But even that rosy approach to FCV implies that they will never close the gap with EVs, and of course does nothing when it comes to infrastructure and fuel costs.
By the way, GM reported that their 2016/2017 battery cell costs from LG are $145/kWh and projected to be $100/kWh by 2022. In that context the Tesla cost pronouncements are if anything conservative, since LG lacks the GF scale, is shipping from Asia, and is tacking on a profit margin.
Consistent with that assessment is the VP of investor relations at Tesla's statement in mid 2016 that Tesla pack
prices are already below $190 per kWh. That is before GF pricing kicks in. Fwiw, packaging costs are about $70 a kWh at GM. Given Tesla's scale advantage, I'll presume packing costs are $50 a kWh. That implies 2016 cell costs at Tesla of $140/kWh. When GF is operating at capacity in 2019 a 35% reduction in costs is expected, that works out to $90 a kWh cell cost and then $140/kWh pack cost. About $7,300 production cost for the SR Model 3 battery, and about $11,200 for the LR Model 3 (52 and 80 kWh, respectively)
Pretty soon the battery cost curve will be mostly a story of packaging costs -- soft costs, if you will, similar to PV today.
https://insideevs.com/gm-chevrolet-bolt ... oves-3500/