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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:32 pm
by SageBrush
California has been installing ~ 4 H2 locations a year recently and each location typically has the ability to service 2 cars at a time.
For context, California has ~ 8,000 fossil 'stations.' I *think* that a station serves one vehicle at a time and many stations serve up more than one type of fossil.

At current rates and costs, 1000 years and $3*10^6*4000 = $12 Billion should do the trick ... unless the car is driven outside of CA.

And if the above is not convincing :shock: remember that the Mirai is $56k for Prius level performance, 20+ cents a mile fuel, and 2/3 of source fuel from fossils when operated in CA.

It is insanity. Something Trumpers or AGW denialists could love.

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:51 pm
by WetEV
GRA wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:51 am
There will always be a niche market, and as BEVs continue to improve in capability of course their market will slowly grow, with sloooow being the operative word, barring some outside influence (subsidies, mandates) that favors them. That is, until they provide similar capability at a comparable price to ICEs. Same goes for any AFV.
"Slow" meaning doubling every three years or so. Looks slow for a while...

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:17 am
by SageBrush
WetEV wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:51 pm
GRA wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:51 am
There will always be a niche market, and as BEVs continue to improve in capability of course their market will slowly grow, with sloooow being the operative word, barring some outside influence (subsidies, mandates) that favors them. That is, until they provide similar capability at a comparable price to ICEs. Same goes for any AFV.
"Slow" meaning doubling every three years or so. Looks slow for a while...
Exactly right, and upheaval of the ICE industry will happen way before even a 1/10 of the new car market switches to EV. ICE is a commodity industry that covers its fixed costs with the first ~ 95% of sales and is profitable from the final 5% of sales. The strength of the industry is their price point but once a competitor is near it with a superior product the old industry collapse is just around the corner.

From 1%:
2%
4%
8%

2-3 doubling times away. IIRC EV is closing in on 2% worldwide already

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:06 am
by Oilpan4
$56k for the mirage!
Minimum 20 cent a mile operating cost?

What exactly is convincing people these things aren't any thing but dead on arrival?

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:28 am
by WetEV
Oilpan4 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:06 am
$56k for the mirage!
Minimum 20 cent a mile operating cost?

What exactly is convincing people these things aren't any thing but dead on arrival?
Not everyone is interested in the exactly minimum cost per mile.

Suppose you were driving CA => NYC and back often. You might care a lot more about minimizing time rather than cost. Time is money, and all that.

The main transportation use might not be in cars, but rather medium range aircraft. It is much safer to debug and develop systems on the grounds...

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:33 am
by SageBrush
WetEV wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:28 am
Suppose you were driving CA => NYC and back often. You might care a lot more about minimizing time rather than cost. Time is money, and all that.
You could drive to ~ the NV border, and then push the car to NYC. Is that your idea for saving time ?

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:40 am
by WetEV
SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:33 am
WetEV wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:28 am
Suppose you were driving CA => NYC and back often. You might care a lot more about minimizing time rather than cost. Time is money, and all that.
You could drive to ~ the NV border, and then push the car to NYC.
I'm not a hydrogen backer.

Hydrogen would need (Oh Duh) more fueling stations before such a trip would be possible. And yes, the cost per mile subsidized would be rather higher than the same trip in a BEV.

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:13 am
by Oilpan4
Do any of the hydrogen fan boys know how much hydrogen is going to cost?
The only way I can figure people are going for this is they have to think hydrogen is going to be free or so cheap it's almost free.

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:24 am
by SageBrush
Oilpan4 wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:13 am
Do any of the hydrogen fan boys know how much hydrogen is going to cost?
The only way I can figure people are going for this is they have to think hydrogen is going to be free or so cheap it's almost free.
.
There are lots of people like myself who think hydrogen might have a future -- just not in passenger cars.

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:55 am
by Oilpan4
Hydrogen definitely has a place, just not in passenger vehicles.