Zythryn
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:03 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:22 pm
By that logic, China has also abandoned their goal for BEVs: as the article notes they've already reduced the subsidies for those.
From the article:
China will reportedly eliminate hydrogen fuel-cell car subsidies at the end of 2020, raising questions about Beijing's goal to have a million of the vehicles on the road by 2030.
China is scaling down its subsidies for electric cars and plug-in hybrids...
There is a big difference between "eliminate" and "scaling down".
Likewise, EVs are reaching a point where they are preferable to many without subsidies. Will the market grow faster with subsidies, absolutely. But without them, the EV market will continue to grow.
The same can't be said for hydrogen passenger cars.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
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GRA
Posts: 11211
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Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:06 pm

Zythryn wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:03 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:22 pm
By that logic, China has also abandoned their goal for BEVs: as the article notes they've already reduced the subsidies for those.
From the article:
China will reportedly eliminate hydrogen fuel-cell car subsidies at the end of 2020, raising questions about Beijing's goal to have a million of the vehicles on the road by 2030.
China is scaling down its subsidies for electric cars and plug-in hybrids...
There is a big difference between "eliminate" and "scaling down".
Likewise, EVs are reaching a point where they are preferable to many without subsidies. Will the market grow faster with subsidies, absolutely. But without them, the EV market will continue to grow.
The same can't be said for hydrogen passenger cars.

But will the market for BEVs continue to grow, in a country like China where most urban residents don't live in detached, single family homes with garages, so are dependent on public charging which so far has been subsidized? Is anyone building public chargers and operating them profitably yet, in China or elsewhere, or are they all still dependent on subsidies?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:28 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:55 pm
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:29 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:22 pm



By that logic, China has also abandoned their goal for BEVs: as the article notes they've already reduced the subsidies for those.
Logic requires deduction with all the information, not just a subset. Remember, they did this with the solar industry as well. It's the grown up thing to do, subsidize the industry until it can stand on its own two feet. Ending the subsidies prematurely is a clear sign of killing the industry. But you knew that right?

Who says that BEVs are capable of standing on their own feet in China yet? It's not just subsidies, it's also mandates. The main thing driving BEV sales there, aside from the subsidies, is the fact that the government has made it almost impossible to get a license for an ICE in many major Chinese cities, but getting one for a ZEV is easy. Similarly, here in California, I've always contended (and surveys have backed this up) that especially for the higher end cars, the HOV perk is the most valuable selling point.

The way to show that BEVs are fully capable of standing on their own is to remove all direct to the customer subsidies, perks and mandates, and see what happens.
That's a rather constrained interpretation. The ZEV mandate is inclusive of BEV's and FCEV's. So which form will survive is pretty obvious.

And "you're talking from both sides of your mouth" (chinese idiom) when you complain about ZEV mandates, while advocating for H2 over fossil fuels (in a past-life discussion).

As soon as the fossil fuel subsidies are removed (tax breaks, funding for naval battle groups to protect middle east oil interests), then I'm all for removal of the ZEV subsidies. Until then, the mandate is just a crude means to level the playing field with our children's lungs at stake.

You have a quip in your signature. Practice what you preach and turn in your ICE vehicle and get a used Chevy Volt.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
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GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:19 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:28 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:55 pm
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:29 pm


Logic requires deduction with all the information, not just a subset. Remember, they did this with the solar industry as well. It's the grown up thing to do, subsidize the industry until it can stand on its own two feet. Ending the subsidies prematurely is a clear sign of killing the industry. But you knew that right?

Who says that BEVs are capable of standing on their own feet in China yet? It's not just subsidies, it's also mandates. The main thing driving BEV sales there, aside from the subsidies, is the fact that the government has made it almost impossible to get a license for an ICE in many major Chinese cities, but getting one for a ZEV is easy. Similarly, here in California, I've always contended (and surveys have backed this up) that especially for the higher end cars, the HOV perk is the most valuable selling point.

The way to show that BEVs are fully capable of standing on their own is to remove all direct to the customer subsidies, perks and mandates, and see what happens.
That's a rather constrained interpretation. The ZEV mandate is inclusive of BEV's and FCEV's. So which form will survive is pretty obvious.

At the moment, there's no evidence that either can survive without government help. Every time that subsidies are reduced anywhere, PEV sales plunge.


Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:28 pm
And "you're talking from both sides of your mouth" (chinese idiom) when you complain about ZEV mandates, while advocating for H2 over fossil fuels (in a past-life discussion).

Nope, what I'm for and what the political reality is are two different things.

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:28 pm
As soon as the fossil fuel subsidies are removed (tax breaks, funding for naval battle groups to protect middle east oil interests), then I'm all for removal of the ZEV subsidies. Until then, the mandate is just a crude means to level the playing field with our children's lungs at stake.

Certainly, but you'll notice I mentioned "direct to the customer subsidies", i.e. not indirect ones such as you mention. I'm all for including those externalities in the price of oil, and have said so many times in this forum. But until that happens, the average customer remains ignorant of those factors, or simply doesn't consider them, because everyone is paying for them. What they do consider is money or time directly benefiting them through subsidies and perks, or the ability to drive a car vs. not being able to do so through mandates.

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:28 pm
You have a quip in your signature. Practice what you preach and turn in your ICE vehicle and get a used Chevy Volt.

I considered doing so, but no Volt is AWD and that's a requirement for me. I also thought about a Prime, whose price/AER/fuel efficiency is a better match for my usage, but again no AWD, mediocre driving dynamics and poor controls plus a lack of cargo space rules it out. The Prius AWD has the cargo space, but suffers from the other Prius issues as well as being a pure fossil-fuel burner. The Outlander is too big, too clumsy and gets worse mpg than my current car, and the Crosstrek falls short on cargo space ala' the Prime. The Niro comes closest to my needs, but again no AWD. Sadly, GM didn't make the 2nd Gen Volt an AWD CUV despite numerous requests from customers (me too) for them to do that.

Then there's the desire on my part not to buy another car that burns any fossil fuels. As I expect my next car to be the last car I'll ever buy (by the time that one reaches the end of its life, I'll probably be at an age where it'll be safer for all concerned if the car does all the driving, and it'll be car-shared), I really want it be a ZEV, so it makes more sense to save my money for when one of those meets my needs. Depending on the RAV4 PHEV specs, I may well be on the horns of a dilemma. Ford's already ruled themselves out by saying that the Escape PHEV won't be available AWD, only the HEV will be.

I practice what I preach in the other ways noted in my sig, using my car as little as possible, nor have I flown anywhere in almost two decades. My feet, bike, and public (electrified) rapid transit use far less energy and resources than any car.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:54 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:19 pm
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:28 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:55 pm



Who says that BEVs are capable of standing on their own feet in China yet? It's not just subsidies, it's also mandates. The main thing driving BEV sales there, aside from the subsidies, is the fact that the government has made it almost impossible to get a license for an ICE in many major Chinese cities, but getting one for a ZEV is easy. Similarly, here in California, I've always contended (and surveys have backed this up) that especially for the higher end cars, the HOV perk is the most valuable selling point.

The way to show that BEVs are fully capable of standing on their own is to remove all direct to the customer subsidies, perks and mandates, and see what happens.
That's a rather constrained interpretation. The ZEV mandate is inclusive of BEV's and FCEV's. So which form will survive is pretty obvious.

At the moment, there's no evidence that either can survive without government help. Every time that subsidies are reduced anywhere, PEV sales plunge.

Not going to bother responding to the other points since we've been around this block multiple times. Just wanted to point out that you're being obtuse. Sales plunge and then recover ... why? Could it be that the plunging of sales after a great quarter is just a gaming of the subsidy and not an indicator of actual demand? That's just consumer behavior. For someone so well read about human behavior, this would've been obvious no?
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
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Zythryn
Posts: 1112
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Oct 18, 2019 5:14 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:06 pm
Zythryn wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:03 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:22 pm
By that logic, China has also abandoned their goal for BEVs: as the article notes they've already reduced the subsidies for those.
From the article:
China will reportedly eliminate hydrogen fuel-cell car subsidies at the end of 2020, raising questions about Beijing's goal to have a million of the vehicles on the road by 2030.
China is scaling down its subsidies for electric cars and plug-in hybrids...
There is a big difference between "eliminate" and "scaling down".
Likewise, EVs are reaching a point where they are preferable to many without subsidies. Will the market grow faster with subsidies, absolutely. But without them, the EV market will continue to grow.
The same can't be said for hydrogen passenger cars.

But will the market for BEVs continue to grow, in a country like China where most urban residents don't live in detached, single family homes with garages, so are dependent on public charging which so far has been subsidized? Is anyone building public chargers and operating them profitably yet, in China or elsewhere, or are they all still dependent on subsidies?
Yes, the market for BEVs will continue to grow. Not as fast, but it will as they are simply better vehicles for people for whom the range requirements work.
I am not sure about China, but in the USA Tesla superchargers received no subsidies.

If you want a comparison of EV growth with and without subsidies, compare the market share EVs have taken in Norway as compared with Finland. Norway has very generous subsidies for electric cars. Finland has none.
The take up rate of EVs in Finland is about 6 years behind that of Norway, but it is following the same curve. The growth is there, just delayed.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
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GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:36 am

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:54 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:19 pm
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:28 pm


That's a rather constrained interpretation. The ZEV mandate is inclusive of BEV's and FCEV's. So which form will survive is pretty obvious.

At the moment, there's no evidence that either can survive without government help. Every time that subsidies are reduced anywhere, PEV sales plunge.

Not going to bother responding to the other points since we've been around this block multiple times. Just wanted to point out that you're being obtuse. Sales plunge and then recover ... why? Could it be that the plunging of sales after a great quarter is just a gaming of the subsidy and not an indicator of actual demand? That's just consumer behavior. For someone so well read about human behavior, this would've been obvious no?

Who says they recover? I'm not talking about end of quarter type drop-offs, I'm talking about plunges and doesn't recover, such as what happened in Georgia when they ended their subsidies. PEVs remain dependent on subsidies or mandates everywhere for now, other than at the high end of the price range where customers are much less price sensitive, and even they respond in the short term (as you describe above).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 11211
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:51 am

Zythryn wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 5:14 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:06 pm
Zythryn wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:03 pm


From the article:


There is a big difference between "eliminate" and "scaling down".
Likewise, EVs are reaching a point where they are preferable to many without subsidies. Will the market grow faster with subsidies, absolutely. But without them, the EV market will continue to grow.
The same can't be said for hydrogen passenger cars.

But will the market for BEVs continue to grow, in a country like China where most urban residents don't live in detached, single family homes with garages, so are dependent on public charging which so far has been subsidized? Is anyone building public chargers and operating them profitably yet, in China or elsewhere, or are they all still dependent on subsidies?
Yes, the market for BEVs will continue to grow. Not as fast, but it will as they are simply better vehicles for people for whom the range requirements work.
I am not sure about China, but in the USA Tesla superchargers received no subsidies.

Superchargers are subsidized by Tesla as a marketing expense, and they're losing money on them. After all, the last time they tried to raise the prices (for the second or was it the third time in a year), the customer outcry forced them to drop the prices back down some. According to Tesla, Superchargers aren't supposed to be a profit center, so the fact that they thought it was necessary to raise them higher shows that they are subsidizing them. Either that, their accountants are incompetent (remember the first round of SC price hikes, where e.g. the price/kWh in Washington State went from IIRR $0.11/kWh to $0.26/kWh in less than a year? The price of electricity didn't suddenly increase by 136%), or else Tesla's lying and is making a profit off SC electricity.

Zythryn wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 5:14 pm
If you want a comparison of EV growth with and without subsidies, compare the market share EVs have taken in Norway as compared with Finland. Norway has very generous subsidies for electric cars. Finland has none.
The take up rate of EVs in Finland is about 6 years behind that of Norway, but it is following the same curve. The growth is there, just delayed.
Or in other places, essentially stalled:
Georgia electric vehicle sales shrink 80% in wake of tax credit repeal
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/georgi ... al/434092/


There will always be a niche market, and as BEVs continue to improve in capability of course their market will slowly grow, with sloooow being the operative word, barring some outside influence (subsidies, mandates) that favors them. That is, until they provide similar capability at a comparable price to ICEs. Same goes for any AFV.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:15 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:09 pm
Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:35 pm
SageBrush wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:57 pm
Bjorn Nyland posted a video on youtube outlining the costs and ability of a hydrogen fueling station:

$2 Million for a station that accepts liquid hydrogen;
$3 Million for a station that makes hydrogen via electrolysis
Both are limited to fueling ~ 4000 miles of driving range a day.

Compare that to Tesla Superchargers: 100 - 150 stations for the same installation cost that pump out 150 - 250 kW. Every hour of operation then moves cars ~ 125*200*4 = 100,000 miles.

At 1/3 utilization the Superchargers provide 200x more miles.
Any word on how much the hydrogen will cost at these hydrogen making refill joints?
The vendor decides, but for now $10 - $20 a kg paid for by the manufacturer since very few people would agree to pay for it out of pocket.

The arithmetic is fairly straightforward: figure 70 Kg H2 a day production for free at an electrolysis plant that costs $3M and is subsidized 50% by CARB. If the loan APR is ~ 10% then $150,00/365 = $410 a day in loan charges spread across 70 Kg production ... $6 a Kg to cover the loan interest. If the investor wants to pay-off the loan in 10 years it works out to $9.3 a Kg. No profit during those 10 years, and O+M yet to be covered ... that also presumes FULL utilization of the pumping station LOL
I was unaware carb was going to cover half.
Figuring no major parts break, it has no consumables, ect. Yeah its dead on arrival as soon as people have to pay for their own hydrogen.

If we figure a hydrogen/air fuel cell has a real world driving efficiency of 40%. 33kwh per kg of H. 4 miles per kwh gives us 53 miles per kg. If it's only $10 per kg it will cost about 19 cents per mile. So it's safe to say it will really cost at least 20 cents per mile.

Which is sad since my 2011 leaf and it's almost obsolete tech costs me a little over 2 cents a mile.
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
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SageBrush
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:53 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:15 pm
Which is sad since my 2011 leaf and it's almost obsolete tech costs me a little over 2 cents a mile.
Which is sad, since you can put up some PV and pay ~ 0.5 cents a mile
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
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2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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