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RegGuheert
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:06 pm

WetEV wrote:I'm sure you already are working on an explanation for a blue water North Pole. It will be GREAT, right?
Why should I do that? Do you think the North Pole will be blue anytime soon? Like virtually every prediction made regarding climate doom, a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong. (Not that there would be ANYTHING bad about a blue North Pole.) You should look again at the GIF above. This time look carefully. Unlike in March 2016 and some earlier years, the North Pole is now completely socked in with multi-year ice for hundreds of miles in ALL directions. The prospects of blue water at the North Pole is getting more remote, NOT more likely.

Would you like to go on record and tell us when YOU think the North Pole will be blue?
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
Posts: 3202
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Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:44 pm

RegGuheert wrote:a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong.
What do you mean by "virtually certain"?

So would that be 1:10,000?

More? Less?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:22 pm

My prediction:
RegGuheert wrote:Like virtually every prediction made regarding climate doom, a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong.
My request for your prediction:
RegGuheert wrote:Would you like to go on record and tell us when YOU think the North Pole will be blue?
Your response:
WetEV wrote:What do you mean by "virtually certain"?

So would that be 1:10,000?

More? Less?
Priceless.

Given your utter lack of knowledge of the processes which affect sea ice, I don't blame you for shying away from putting your name behind a prediction.

Basically, you are here to tell everyone how bad things are gonna get, but you really are just continually parroting the nonsense with no understanding of what is going on.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
Posts: 3202
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Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:30 pm

RegGuheert wrote:My prediction:
RegGuheert wrote:Like virtually every prediction made regarding climate doom, a blue North Pole in two years is virtually certain to be wrong.
So would that be 1:10,000?

More? Less?

Do tell.

I want to know what "virtually certain" means.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:39 pm

It's clear, WetEV: You don't even believe your own nonsense. If you did, you could commit to a prediction. But you won't.

Sad.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 3:58 pm

RegGuheert wrote:It's clear, WetEV: You don't even believe your own nonsense. If you did, you could commit to a prediction. But you won't.

Sad.
So please help educate me.

What odds are "virtually certain"?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

WetEV
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Re: Climate Change: What Do We Know and When Did We Know It?

Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:43 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:I'm sure you already are working on an explanation for a blue water North Pole. It will be GREAT, right?
Why should I do that? Do you think the North Pole will be blue anytime soon?
Consider this:

Image

Then ask questions.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
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User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:32 am

Fortunately, the knowledge of science precludes one from coming to the nonsensical conclusions which would result from interpreting data from one-half of a cycle to be a linear trend. Instead, it is recognized to simply be a part of a cycle which repeats itself.

As I have clearly shown, the conditions in the arctic today are very close to those experienced in the first half of the 21st century. But note that after the 1950s, the trend reversed itself, just as it will do this time. How do we know this? We know it because we have studied what happens when the ice melts in the Arctic Sea. Simply put, as the fresh water volume gets beyond a certain tipping point, it flows out into the Atlantic Ocean and covers the Gulf Stream with cold, fresh water. Note that this is different than shutting down the gulf stream. In fact it is still there and flowing, but it is the temperature of the SURFACE of the global oceans which control the temperature of our atmosphere. The cold water now flowing from the Arctic is above the warmer waters of the gulf stream. The result is colder surface temperatures in the Atlantic, as is seen in the plot I provided yesterday. This cold surface water in the far North Atlantic is the primary reason for the extreme cold which has been experienced across much of eastern Europe and most of Russia this winter. Expect more of this going forward.

Those making linear projections from very limited observational periods clearly are not aware of the science involved in our planet's climate.

The more important trend that we face is that our nearest star is in the process of going to sleep. This portends extremely cold climate in the not-so-distant future. While warming is good for civilization, cold is extremely dangerous. If we are not prepared for the cold when it comes, the death toll will be immense.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

WetEV
Posts: 3202
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:58 am

RegGuheert wrote:Fortunately, the knowledge of science precludes one from coming to the nonsensical conclusions which would result from interpreting data from one-half of a cycle to be a linear trend. Instead, it is recognized to simply be a part of a cycle which repeats itself.

As I have clearly shown, the conditions in the arctic today are very close to those experienced in the first half of the 21st century. But note that after the 1950s, the trend reversed itself, just as it will do this time. How do we know this? We know it because we have studied what happens when the ice melts in the Arctic Sea. Simply put, as the fresh water volume gets beyond a certain tipping point, it flows out into the Atlantic Ocean and covers the Gulf Stream with cold, fresh water. Note that this is different than shutting down the gulf stream. In fact it is still there and flowing, but it is the temperature of the SURFACE of the global oceans which control the temperature of our atmosphere. The cold water now flowing from the Arctic is above the warmer waters of the gulf stream. The result is colder surface temperatures in the Atlantic, as is seen in the plot I provided yesterday. This cold surface water in the far North Atlantic is the primary reason for the extreme cold which has been experienced across much of eastern Europe and most of Russia this winter. Expect more of this going forward.

Those making linear projections from very limited observational periods clearly are not aware of the science involved in our planet's climate.

The more important trend that we face is that our nearest star is in the process of going to sleep. This portends extremely cold climate in the not-so-distant future. While warming is good for civilization, cold is extremely dangerous. If we are not prepared for the cold when it comes, the death toll will be immense.
So did a blue water North Pole happened in the first half of the 21st century?

How are you going to explain a blue water North Pole with cycles?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:38 am

WetEV wrote:So did a blue water North Pole happened in the first half of the 21st century?
Do you mean in the 20th century? If so, I don't know. Do you? One thing is for sure: it cannot be proven that blue water over the North Pole did NOT occur in the 20th century since there was not continuous monitoring.

What I DO know is that there has never been a blue water North Pole in the 21st century.
WetEV wrote:How are you going to explain a blue water North Pole with cycles?
What is this ridiculous "blue North Pole goose chase" that you are on? It seems you uncritically accept any proclamation of climate doom which comes your way. I don't need to explain it since it didn't happen. It's just another wild-eye prognostication from those who have yet to make an accurate prediction.

In fact, this prediction is following the pattern of so many others: IMMEDIATELY following the prediction, the conditions go in the opposite direction of the prediction. Now, just six month later we see that multiyear ice has encapsulated the North Pole in all directions. I'm not talking about the difference between the peak melt and the peak freeze but the difference between March 2017 and previous Marches. In 2016, the conditions were completely different than they are today.

Are you predicting that there will be blue water over the North Pole someday? If so, when?
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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