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jlv
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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:24 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:28 pm
Warning: Fox "news" permeates the above video.
IMHO, the Fox news bits are in there to make fun of Fox "news reporting". I thought the whole video made great fun of all those news commentators!
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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:53 pm

For some people - like me - watching Fox "news" is like watching those horrible invented 'gladiator' type TV games. I only find it amusing in tiny doses.
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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:03 pm

Sounds like Poe's law in action.

Fox is just a good parody that some people think they are serious. Some even believe what Fox presents.

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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:15 pm

I found the Lincoln Project videos to be typical political fare for today, and that isn't a compliment. The last one, heavy with the Fox stuff.....I couldn't finish.

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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:38 pm

The last one was from comedy central. Yes it was pretty stupid. Fox news that is and a clip with all of that stupid $hit was very Foxian.
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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:08 pm

They could have intercut video of Republican Presidents doing whatever they were ranting about at the time. They were one or two brief intercuts of still images.
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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:23 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:53 pm
For some people - like me - watching Fox "news" is like watching those horrible invented 'gladiator' type TV games. I only find it amusing in tiny doses.
Next you'll be saying you find all reality TV shows a complete waste of time and an insult to your intelligence. Only a life-long, card-carrying member of the Communist Party could think so. Isn't that right, Leftie, or should I say Comrade? 😂

I did see a car with a bumper sticker I liked a few days ago: https://www.stickershoppe.com/PROD/HB-S ... kBEALw_wcB
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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:27 am

Trump is building his wall.
https://youtu.be/0OdpHtZ1YmQ
Just not the one he promised.
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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:16 pm

I thought it would be interesting to compare how the polls are right now compared to where they ended up in 2016.  Now I realize many people think the polls are wrong, or even faked, but I personally I do not buy that.  There is a lot of misconceptions on what polls actually are, and how to use them.  Many people seem to forget they have a margin of error, and indeed, some sources are more accurate than others.  Margin of error on polls is easily 3% and can be even higher.  Some use Adults, some use Registered voters, some use Likely voters. Some have small sample sizes of less than a thousand, others are bigger.  And no poll will always 100% reflect who actually decided to vote on election day.   Still, one can look at trends.  Of course, polling and trends can change too, so what will be most interesting is the final averages for 2020.  But we don't have those yet.

First, look at the final RCP average for 2016 for a bunch of the swing states and compare to the actual vote.  Real Clear has the standard RCP averages for today as well as for 2016.  Later for current data I will do better and go to Five thirty Eight, who does a better job - they actually rate and eventually will weigh polls based on past performance and biases.  But for now, lets just start with the RCP averages.  I used the final RCP average for 2016 compared to the actual election results.  And if I flubbed a number or a calculation somewhere, apologies.  Lots of numbers.  

2016 Final RCP versus Actual
-----------------------------------------
Overall: 46.8 Clinton  43.6 Trump (Clinton +3.2)  | Clinton 48.18 Trump 46.09 (+2.09)

WI: 46.8 Clinton 40.3 Trump (Clinton +6.5)   |  Trump 47.22 Clinton 46.45 (+0.77)
FL: 47.0 Trump 46.6 Clinton (Trump +0.4)    |  Trump 49.02 Clinton 47.82 (+1.2)
PA: 46.8 Clinton 44.7 Trump (Clinton +2.1)   |  Trump 48.18 Clinton 47.46 (+0.72)
NC: 46.5 Trump 45.7 Clinton (Trump +0.8)   |  Trump 49.83 Clinton 46.17 (+3.66)
MI: 47.0 Clinton 43.4 Trump (Clinton +3.6)    |  Trump 47.50 Clinton 47.27 (+0.23)
AZ: 47.0 Trump 43.0 Clinton (Trump +4.0)    |  Trump 48.67 Clinton 45.13 (+3.54)
OH: 46.2 Trump 44.0 Clinton (Trump +2.2)   |  Trump 51.69 Clinton 43.56 (+8.13)
IA: 44.3 Trump 42.3 Clinton (Trump +3.0)     |  Trump 51.15 Clinton 41.74 (+9.41)

I could do more, but it takes time to look the data up.  So what do we see here when looking at ALL the polls averaged?  A lot of close states, many within the margin of error.  Trump won all of the close states, more or less sweeping the battleground states for the Electoral College system. Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa seems to be the big outliers.  But remember, RCP average does not look at poll rating, bias, past performance or sample type.  What one could do is create bias or offsets given this data to then apply to current RCP averages, or one could go to FivethirtyEight and use only the best polls.  Regardless, we have our RCP baseline.    

So here is the final 2016 offsets (Delta in Poll vs Final)
------------------------------------------
Overall: +1.11 to Trump 
WI: +7.27 Trump
FL: + 0.8 Trump 
PA: + 2.82 Trump
NC: + 2.86 Trump
MI: + 3.83 Trump
AZ: + 0.46 Clinton
OH: + 5.93 Trump
IA: + 6.41 Trump
------------------------------------------

For comparison here are the CURRENT (not final obviously) RCP averages, then adjusted with the 2016 offset:

------------------------------------------
Overall: +9.1 to Biden |  +7.99 Biden
WI: +6.4 Biden            |  +0.84 Trump
FL: +7.8  Biden           |  +7.0 Biden
PA: +7.4  Biden           |  +4.58 Biden
NC: +3.0  Biden          |  +0.14 Biden
MI: +8.4  Biden           |  +4.57 Biden
AZ: +4.0  Biden           | +4.46 Biden
OH: +1.5  Biden          | +4.43 Trump
IA: +  1.5  Trump         | +7.91 Trump 

Note that for some reason both Ohio and Iowa have very little polling right now, so take those current numbers with a big asterisk.
However, we can already see that Biden is currently well ahead of where Clinton was, albeit we are comparing NOW to final RCP 2016 average. Now note that it would only take 3 states flipping from 2016 to change to results for 2020, and currently we see 5 among just this group.    But as I said earlier, we can do better.  Next time I will look at the polling from FiveThirtyEight and use only the Grade A and Grade B polls.  
Nate silver does a great job (my opinion only) in running data.  If you go to his page and look at latest polls, he gives you the source, sample size, type of sample and a grade letter rating.For his overall analysis and predictions he adds and subtracts biases in the polls to create his own average.But for now, I will look into some averaging of his top rated polls.I think my next step will be averaging out only his recent polls that have a B rating and above.  Unfortunately I don't have his final 2016 data at the moment to create offsets, but that would be even more interesting step, if possible.  

So that will all be Part 2 when I get around to it.  

Can we draw any conclusions? That's a tough call, but even with the large 2016 offsets, it does appear Biden is doing well. And one could certainly argue those offsets are actually too large. But why did all the polls end up offset in 2016, even if many are within the error margin? Enthusiasm issue with Clinton voters? Hidden Trump voters? Late swing not seen in the polling averages? Good questions. But even with the rather large offsets from 2016, Biden still is ahead for 2020. And if those offsets turn out to be smaller - or none - right now you would be looking at a landslide. And I think one must remember a poll is just a tiny snapshot at a moment in time with a certain chosen, or random, set of people.

TBD.
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Re: Trump is the Greatest/Lousiest Pres. of All Time

Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:25 pm

One poll I saw is that among Biden voters, 50% are voting against Trump, while only something like 17 or 27% (forget) are voting for him, and the remainder are just voting for the Dem. candidate.

Among Trump voters, IIRR 68% are voting for him, so Biden's lead is not due so much to any qualities he has, it's because he's not Il Duce. We'll have to see if development of a vaccine or something like major clashes/vandalism by protesters can rescue the Dumpster from the hole he's dug for himself. This year really is feeling more than a little like 1968. One difference is that unlike then I don't think there's any major political or social figures around whose assassination would really stun the country, owing to a general loss of respect for public figures.
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