WetEV
Posts: 4376
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:13 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:33 pm
But I'm glad to see that you want to spend resources on what makes the largest impact, as that clearly implies eliminating subsidies for buying BEVs here and instead incentivizing ZEV VMT, freeing up money and resources for other areas.
Take your words out of my mouth.

Thank you.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 12881
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:46 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:33 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:37 am
Nine women can't make a baby in a month.
How is that relevant to deciding which cars to build, mandate and incentivize for the near term?
Regardless of mandates and incentivizes, there are limits to how fast things can get done. I'm fairly sure this quote is older than WB.

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/172818 ... by-getting


Or older than Brooks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks%27s_law



How old the quote is is irrelevant, as you're comparing two totally different systems, one natural which is grown as a whole, one industrial which is assembled from numerous parts often sourced from multiple locations.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:33 pm
That equation is 7 Niro PHEV battery packs or 1 Niro BEV pack. If the PHEVs each drive 20 mi./day EV and the BEV does 40 miles, that's 140/40. Since the PHEV is priced $9,500 less than the BEV, and the size of the potential market doubles for every $5k price reduction, somewhere around 3.5-3.8 times as many people could afford the PHEV, which is still at least a 70/40 EV advantage.
Bad math and shaky assumptions.

PHEV batteries are different than BEV batteries. Optimized for power rather than energy. Can't just swap them out one for one.

PHEV battery packs are, depending on their size, further along the spectrum towards power than energy compared to BEV batteries, hut they are still deep-cycle energy batteries, especially when compared to say a starter battery which is all power, lots of thin plates for max. current vs. fewer, thicker ones for max. energy. As PHEV packs get larger the difference between them and BEV batteries shrinks; at some point there isn't one. Where that point is for the various Li-ion chemistries I couldn't say, but it's hardly likely to present a serious production bottleneck, as most of the big battery manufacturers make both and can adjust the production mix as needed.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
Car price difference isn't equal to cost difference. BEV and PHEV are probably similar cost. Sure, less battery in the PHEV, but no engine in the BEV. At the $100/kWh rate, cost difference would be 54kWh*100 - gas engine cost - complexity cost (more assembly required). The BEV might be cheaper to produce.
Not even close. One recent study I read said that BEV packs were currently making up 70% of the car's production cost. For ICEs, production costs make up about 1/2 of the MSRP, so if about the same ratio holds for a BEV there's no way they cost the same as a PHEV yet. ICEs are cheap by comparison, and while the analysts say BEVs will get to cost competitiveness at $100/kWh, that's at the pack not cell level, and we're still several years away from that.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
Car price difference might be closer to driver valuation, however. BEVs are just nicer to drive.

That's an opinion based on your personal priorities. Even if it were universally agreed on, it still doesn't outweigh a liquid-fueled ICEs many operational and price advantages, which is why customers aren't rushing to buy them.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
That's also 7 sets of power electronics rather than. How the availability and lead time on electronics right now?

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021 ... -shortage/

Which industry already exists on a large scale, and which is easier to scale up, electronics or batteries? Both are currently experiencing shortages, but one tech is mature and the other isn't. One's products are also far heavier and bulkier than the other, so shipping energy and cost is higher too.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
With the PHEV having 26 miles of electric range, exactly why do you expect 20 mi/day of EV? If US average, would be 13 miles. As this is a small battery PHEV, probably less.
Because the average daily mileage is about 37 miles, and I was being conservative in favor of the BEV, and allowing for some degradation. If they're all driving just13 miles a day, the price advantage for an even smaller-battery PHEV grows even larger.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:33 pm


Oh please. The people will be working in the same factories they do now, they're just changing the production mix. And since BEVs require fewer humans to build, the workforce would have to shrink anyway, so better to do it through natural attrition over a period of years than all at once.
Read carefully. Average life of a car is well over a decade. Want to replace all the cars in 6 years? Then you need more than twice as many cars made. That takes roughly twice as many factories with twice as many people. After 6 years, both are made redundant. And as PHEVs are more complex to assemble than BEVs, that would be more all at once.

There is a natural rhythm to change. Halving the CO2 from transportation in 20 years is very realistic. Doing so in 10 isn't.

When have I ever suggested that we can or will replace all the existing fleet in six years? Never. I've said that we need at least one and probably two car generations of PHEVs before it will be practical to go all-ZEV. In fact, I've said repeatedly that I expect it to take 15 years or more to replace the majority of the existing fleet absent an outright ban, which would be a measure of last resort and show just how desperate the situation was. So please stop making straw man arguments based on things I've never said and opinions I don't hold.
Last edited by GRA on Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12881
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:00 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:13 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:33 pm
But I'm glad to see that you want to spend resources on what makes the largest impact, as that clearly implies eliminating subsidies for buying BEVs here and instead incentivizing ZEV VMT, freeing up money and resources for other areas.
Take your words out of my mouth.

Thank you.

You've got to admit the logic does follow. After all, every $ of tax credit/rebate spent subsidizing ZEV purchases is a $ that can't be spent elsewhere, whether on charging infrastructure or reducing Industrial/ag/electricity GHGs it whichever area YOU think is most important - we know that it's not transportation, because you've said so repeatedly.

And if we are going to spend money on cleaning up transportation, then clearly you'd agree that we should be trying to get the most bang for the buck so as not to waste any more than we have to. Right now, the most LDV bang for the buck is, as I've shown, PHEVs and public charging infrastructure. It sure as hell isn't helping people buy cars costing $40k+.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 16928
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:06 am

I used to not only read these arguments back in the Usenet days - I used to participate. Based on far too many years of doing that, I'd like to suggest that you two take a long, hot shower (singly, not together) and then filter each other's posts. Because if you don't, one day you'll go to type yet another multiple-quoted response, and will discover that you can't - because you will be dead, having died of old age while failing to even make the Guinness Book of Records for longest-running argument.

This is, of course, only a suggestion. It will, of course, be ignored...
Brilliant Silver 2021 Leaf SV40 W/ Pro Pilot & Protection
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 2 lithium E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

WetEV
Posts: 4376
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:55 am

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:46 pm
How old the quote is is irrelevant, as you're comparing two totally different systems, one natural which is grown as a whole, one industrial which is assembled from numerous parts often sourced from multiple locations.
Read the Mythical Man Month. Come back once you have comprehended it.

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:46 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
Bad math and shaky assumptions.
PHEV batteries are different than BEV batteries. Optimized for power rather than energy. Can't just swap them out one for one.
but it's hardly likely to present a serious production bottleneck
You assume.

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:46 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
Car price difference isn't equal to cost difference. BEV and PHEV are probably similar cost. Sure, less battery in the PHEV, but no engine in the BEV. At the $100/kWh rate, cost difference would be 54kWh*100 - gas engine cost - complexity cost (more assembly required). The BEV might be cheaper to produce.
Not even close. One recent study I read said that BEV packs we're currently making up 70% of the car's production cost. For ICEs, production costs make up about 1/2 of the MSRP, so if about the same ratio holds for a BEV there's no way they cost the same as a PHEV yet. ICEs are cheap by comparison, and while the analysts say BEVs will get to cost competitiveness at $100/kWh, that's at the pack not cell level, and we're still several years away from that.


https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pac ... t-137-kwh/

GRA wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:46 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:49 pm
With the PHEV having 26 miles of electric range, exactly why do you expect 20 mi/day of EV? If US average, would be 13 miles. As this is a small battery PHEV, probably less.
Because the average daily mileage is about 37 miles, and I was being conservative in favor of the BEV, and allowing for some degradation. If they're all driving just13 miles a day, the price advantage for an even smaller-battery PHEV grows even larger.
Your "because" fails to parse.

At $100/kWh, not much savings from smaller battery.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

frontrangeleaf
Posts: 175
Joined: Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:07 am
Delivery Date: 08 Jul 2019
Location: Denver Area

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:15 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:06 am
I used to not only read these arguments back in the Usenet days - I used to participate. Based on far too many years of doing that, I'd like to suggest that you two take a long, hot shower (singly, not together) and then filter each other's posts. Because if you don't, one day you'll go to type yet another multiple-quoted response, and will discover that you can't - because you will be dead, having died of old age while failing to even make the Guinness Book of Records for longest-running argument.

This is, of course, only a suggestion. It will, of course, be ignored...
Perhaps a pair of cold showers might help more....
Empty-nesters - NW Denver-Boulder Area

2019 Leaf SL Plus
2015 Audi Q5 TDI
2007 BMW Z4 3.0Si
2012 VW GTI: SOLD

GRA
Posts: 12881
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:42 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:06 am
I used to not only read these arguments back in the Usenet days - I used to participate. Based on far too many years of doing that, I'd like to suggest that you two take a long, hot shower (singly, not together) and then filter each other's posts. Because if you don't, one day you'll go to type yet another multiple-quoted response, and will discover that you can't - because you will be dead, having died of old age while failing to even make the Guinness Book of Records for longest-running argument.

This is, of course, only a suggestion. It will, of course, be ignored...

You do realize the effect of eliminating from the internet repetitive arguments with little hope of changing the opinions of anyone reading them, and with absolutely no influence on the people and organizations actually making decisions on the subjects under discussion? At least 90% of the remaining internet traffic will consist of conspiracy theories about Jewish space lasers and the like, and cat videos :lol:

However, I'm going to surprise you. As this particular round of argument, like most of those between WetEV and myself, has long since entered the Ouroboros stage, I'll end my part in the current cycle here.

I have no doubt that Wet and I will soon stumble into the next cycle - it's the internet equivalent of soap opera story lines. :D
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 16928
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:55 pm

Are you going to argue for space lases, or for cat videos? In either case, thanks.
Brilliant Silver 2021 Leaf SV40 W/ Pro Pilot & Protection
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 2 lithium E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GRA
Posts: 12881
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Climate Change Discussion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:27 am

    LeftieBiker wrote:
    Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:55 pm
    Are you going to argue for space lases, or for cat videos? In either case, thanks.
    The most cost-effective option in the near term is (are?) videos of Plug-in Hybrid, Jewish space lasers operated by cats ;)
    Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

    The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

    Return to “Politics & Other Controversial Topics”