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RegGuheert
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:18 am

The government "climate scientists" have been working overtime to lower the recorded temperatures from less than two decades ago while simultaneously raising today's temperatures to allow true believers to continue in their faith:

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You don't have to wonder why the data tampering is going on, you can read about it from the data tamperers yourself:

Image

(Just in case anyone is wondering, the above is not science, even though it is done by "scientists". Rather, the above is the corruption of scientific data in order to try to convince people to believe a lie. It's working, as the post immediately above proves.)

What blip are they talking about? This blip:

Image

When the temperatures of the entire globe are averaged, you get the true picture of how temperatures are evolving. What you learn is that the global temperature has experienced the largest 10-month drop ever recorded by instruments and it is the same or even slightly lower than it was during the same point in the previous super El Niño of 1998:

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The bottom line is that the instruments cannot distinguish the average temperature of 2016 from that of 1998:

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Not to worry. [ur=https://realclimatescience.com/2017/01/ ... ediction/l]RSS temperatures are about to be "fixed," as well[/url].
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:50 am

Ice doesn't care.

Not in the slightest.

Not about the blogs you read.

Not about your politics. Not about you. Not about anything... Gets above 0C, 32F it melts.

Image

I visited Columbia Icefields in 1970 and in 2005. My dad had been there in 1952. Difference for me was disquieting. This picture doesn't give the scale. You really need to walk the trail that used to be covered by ice. Past all the markers giving the year that the ice tip was there.

Image

It was a lot shorter walk in 1970.

Not just Columbia Icefields. Most of the glaciers all round the world are melting away. The few that are not melting are special cases of various sorts.

Ice doesn't care.

Image

Larsen B had been there since the last interglacial, over 100,000 years ago. But ice doesn't care. It got too warm. It collapsed into the ocean and melted.

Ice doesn't care.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:58 pm

Not my area of expertise, but doesn't it seem likely that a "warming blip" in the 1940s would be due to WWII? And Wet is right about results: whatever errors have been made in recording climate temps over the last century, the ice is clearly melting now. Maybe Reg thinks that climate scientists have been stealing and hiding it.
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NeilBlanchard
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:03 pm

The Arctic and Antarctic ice cap area is now about 2.4 Million square Kilometers SMALLER than the next lowest year.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

GRA
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:28 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:Not my area of expertise, but doesn't it seem likely that a "warming blip" in the 1940s would be due to WWII? And Wet is right about results: whatever errors have been made in recording climate temps over the last century, the ice is clearly melting now. Maybe Reg thinks that climate scientists have been stealing and hiding it.
I'd think that if anything a cooling blip would have been more likely for WW2, what with all the extra aerosol particles from fires, but don't know if the amounts were significant enough to have the same effect as say Pinatubo or Krakatoa. I do remember that the winter of 1941-42 was the coldest of the 20th Century in Europe, but that happened well before the worst of the bombing raids, so is almost certainly unrelated. See http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... 2.0.CO%3B2

Meanwhile:
News Wrap: Global temperatures hit record high in 2016
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/news-wra ... high-2016/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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WetEV
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:50 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:16 pm
Which doesn't help us for the next 20-30 years, when the need to reduce GHGs is most critical.
Greenhouse gas reductions are necessary. Things get bad eventually. Important, not urgent.

There isn't any specific known threshold we need to avoid. The next 20 to 30 years isn't any more or less critical than the past 20 or 30 years.

The oceans provide about 50 years of thermal inertia. To be more precise, the "mixed layer" of the ocean. So in about 50 years, we will know what we have done to the climate today. Right now, we see about what we were committed to in 1970, about when I heard about this issue first, from a high school physics teacher.

With the GHG's already released or very likely to be released, Greenland will melt to bare rock over thousands of years. A big chunk of West Antarctic Ice shelf might collapse over hundreds to tens of thousands of years.

Climate change is slow. However, it is a beast, and we need to stop whacking it over the head. Sooner rather than later, if we can. But years or even decades do not change the outcome all that much.

Humans just don't deal well with important but not urgent issues.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:10 am

I think that you are expressing an argument that has already been proven mistaken. We are just about to exit the far/late side of the tipping point, not just approaching it from the near/early side, or experiencing it from the "middle." Optimistically, we have maybe 10 years to make radical reductions in our contributions to global warming. Pessimistically, we are too late even in the best case for our response to stop the worst effects from occurring, and from doing it in this century. I've never supported the idea of blanketing the atmosphere with artificial (or natural) dirt, but at this point it may be the only way left to prevent runaway warming. Of course, if it is implemented, and begins to succeed, then victory will be declared, carbon emission limits will be ignored, and we'll be right back in the same sinking boat.
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WetEV
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:46 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:10 am
I think that you are expressing an argument that has already been proven mistaken. We are just about to exit the far/late side of the tipping point, not just approaching it from the near/early side, or experiencing it from the "middle."
Which exact tipping point? Scientific journal reference, please.

LeftieBiker wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:10 am
Optimistically, we have maybe 10 years to make radical reductions in our contributions to global warming. Pessimistically, we are too late even in the best case for our response to stop the worst effects from occurring, and from doing it in this century.
Notice again the roughly 50 year thermal lag in the climate system caused by the ocean's mixed layer. A few hundred meters of water takes a huge amount of heat to warm, and it just can't happen fast.

So there is a real chance that we passed some key point 40 years ago. And we are going to find out about it in the next decade or so. That's the pessimistic view.

The optimistic view is that we stop releasing CO2 fast enough, the climate sensitivity is on the low side of estimates and the changes are small enough we can cope with them.

The optimistic and the pessimistic views are equally likely. Roll them dice.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:48 pm

:arrow:
WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:50 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:16 pm
Which doesn't help us for the next 20-30 years, when the need to reduce GHGs is most critical.
Greenhouse gas reductions are necessary. Things get bad eventually. Important, not urgent.

There isn't any specific known threshold we need to avoid. The next 20 to 30 years isn't any more or less critical than the past 20 or 30 years.

The oceans provide about 50 years of thermal inertia. To be more precise, the "mixed layer" of the ocean. So in about 50 years, we will know what we have done to the climate today. Right now, we see about what we were committed to in 1970, about when I heard about this issue first, from a high school physics teacher.

With the GHG's already released or very likely to be released, Greenland will melt to bare rock over thousands of years. A big chunk of West Antarctic Ice shelf might collapse over hundreds to tens of thousands of years.

Climate change is slow. However, it is a beast, and we need to stop whacking it over the head. Sooner rather than later, if we can. But years or even decades do not change the outcome all that much.

Humans just don't deal well with important but not urgent issues.

You are far more sanguine about the pace of needed change than I, or most climate scientists FTM. Personally, I figure we've probably already lost the chance to hold to a 1.5 deg. C increase, as most countries failed to meet their goals under both Kyoto and Paris. We apparently hit +1 deg. C (range 0.8-1.2) human-induced temp change above pre-industrial temps in 2017, with a predicted rate of increase of 0.2 deg. C/decade (high confidence in a range of 0.1-0.3 deg. C); see the 2nd paragraph of the Executive Summary here: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

Like Leftie,I suspect even holding it to 2.0 deg. C will probably require massive atmospheric intervention via CCS and/or aerosol injection. Naturally, I hope I'm wrong, and we still have time for less radical and expensive measures.

Of course, I'm unlikely to be around long enough to see the worst effects and I don't have kids, so I could just say it's not my problem, the earth will survive with or without us (hopefully without turning into Venus), and go on my merry way.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Climate Change Discussion

Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:36 am

GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:48 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:50 am
Greenhouse gas reductions are necessary. Things get bad eventually. Important, not urgent.

There isn't any specific known threshold we need to avoid. The next 20 to 30 years isn't any more or less critical than the past 20 or 30 years.

The oceans provide about 50 years of thermal inertia. To be more precise, the "mixed layer" of the ocean. So in about 50 years, we will know what we have done to the climate today. Right now, we see about what we were committed to in 1970, about when I heard about this issue first, from a high school physics teacher.

With the GHG's already released or very likely to be released, Greenland will melt to bare rock over thousands of years. A big chunk of West Antarctic Ice shelf might collapse over hundreds to tens of thousands of years.

Climate change is slow. However, it is a beast, and we need to stop whacking it over the head. Sooner rather than later, if we can. But years or even decades do not change the outcome all that much.

Humans just don't deal well with important but not urgent issues.

You are far more sanguine about the pace of needed change than I, or most climate scientists FTM.
Sanguine? An interesting word. And probably not correctly applied. Remember the driving with the rearview mirror we are doing, seeing the impact of what we did 50 years ago. What have we already done??

Consider the WAIS and some similar ice elsewhere. A pile of ice resting on the ocean floor. Piled up so high and deep that it is dynamically unstable. If it starts to melt in a serious way it will collapse into a huge number of burgy bits. If we warm up the climate enough, it goes crack splash kerplunk and the oceans rise by over 1 meter/3 feet and as much as 3 meter/10 feet in a matter of a few decades at most. What holds it together is ice shelves limiting flow from exit glaciers such as the Pine Island Glacier, aka the PIG. These should delay the collapse by decades to a century or more. We are making the PIG unhappy now. 50 years of warming are more or less locked in. Feeling sanguine yet?

So how much warming is too much? Fine question. Might be too late already. Might take another 2C. If this was D&D, time to roll some dice. We don't and can't know how much warming is too much, as there are too many unknowns. We might be able to provide a decade or more of warning once the process starts. The above statement could have been written in 1970, back when I first started to follow CO2 climate change. The dynamics of ice collapse are too hard to model, the geologic record shows they happen and these facts both haven't changed and are unlikely to change until we see an example in real time. Which might be in my lifetime. Feeling sanguine yet?

So how much does a decade matter? At 0.2C/decade, very roughly 10% on the odds eventual collapse, and some unknown number of decades more delay.

There are other issues like this, most are regional in impact, such as the drying of California. Areas becoming too hot for human survival. And so on.

Personal transportation isn't the big problem in CO2. Even without subsidies/mandates/incentives, most driving will likely be electric in 50 years or so. And electric power can be mostly non-fossil fueled in 40 years or so. And while we could and have already speed this up, the other problems that need more attention will likely suffer if there is too much governmental focus on this.

Steel? Concrete? Home heating, especially in colder areas? These are harder to solve.

GRA wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:48 pm
Personally, I figure we've probably already lost the chance to hold to a 1.5 deg. C increase,
We lost the chance for 1.5C increase 30 years ago, or more. When announced as a goal, it was already impossible. Without magic CCS and/or sulfate injection into the stratosphere or other drastic and risky climate interventions.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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