NeilBlanchard
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:33 am

The data continues to surprise - in that we have seen more melting much sooner than we thought. We have seen more ocean rise quicker and sooner than we thought, recently. We have seen more melting "permafrost" that we thought. We have set a record warm year - several years in a row.

The deniers have their opinions - and science has data.

downeykp
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Wed Jul 05, 2017 7:09 pm

NeilBlanchard wrote:The data continues to surprise - in that we have seen more melting much sooner than we thought. We have seen more ocean rise quicker and sooner than we thought, recently. We have seen more melting "permafrost" that we thought. We have set a record warm year - several years in a row.

The deniers have their opinions - and science has data.
Agreed. Since when do scientists know anything.
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GRA
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:01 pm

Resurrecting an old topic, to recommend a book:
Brave New Arctic: The Untold Story of the Melting North
https://www.amazon.com/Brave-New-Arctic ... 0691173990

The author is the head of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado-Boulder, and has been involved in arctic research since the early '80s. Some reviews: "[A] fascinating book about how researchers came to understand Arctic warming and its causes. . . . As he documents this process, Serreze doesn’t shy away from the failures of the Arctic research community, including his own. Particularly interesting are the mea culpas from Serreze and fellow scientists who chased scientific red herrings or, deafened by the din of natural climate variability, misread the data. The Arctic, Serreze writes, ‘tells no lies.’ But its truth can be hard to discern."---Ashley Shelby, New York Times Book Review

"[Serreze] has also written a farewell to ice. In Brave New Arctic, he relates that when he first started out in polar research, in the early eighties, he was taken with the idea of global cooling. ‘Deep down I was hoping for an ice age,’ he confesses. . . . Years passed, the ice continued to melt, and Serreze came to favor fire. ‘The weight of evidence turned me,’ he observes. ‘And then I turned hard.’ He gives the perennial sea ice until 2030 or so. ‘That the Arctic Ocean will become free of sea ice in late summer and early autumn is a given,’ he writes."---Elizabeth Kolbert, New Yorker

"[Brave New Arctic] delves into the recent history of Arctic research, following a trail of scientific breadcrumbs from the late 1970s to the present day to show how our understanding of the region’s response to climate and climate change has evolved over time. . . . Serreze succeeds on one important front: humanizing Arctic science. He tells anecdotes about his research and the people he’s worked with. He portrays scientists whose work he discusses as regular people." (Science)
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:48 am

WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Learjet
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:11 am

just prove to me its man-made and not a normal earth cycle...also that we can actually stop the normal earth cycle.
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WetEV
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:39 am

Learjet wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:11 am
just prove to me its man-made and not a normal earth cycle...also that we can actually stop the normal earth cycle.
I can't prove that warming isn't green meanies from Mars. If you believe in crazy stuff, reason is hopeless.
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:48 am

Learjet wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:11 am
just prove to me its man-made and not a normal earth cycle...also that we can actually stop the normal earth cycle.
Aristotle wrote: It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision to which the nature of the subject admits and not to seek exactness when only an approximation of the truth is possible.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:41 am

Learjet wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:11 am
just prove to me its man-made and not a normal earth cycle...also that we can actually stop the normal earth cycle.
The evidence from ice core drilling establishes the link to industrial activity. As for proving we can stop it: this is the first time we've had to try. Do you suggest we just give up and let runaway global warming occur? Do you by any chance have a backup planet to which you can go when it does...? Or are you sure that the planet will stay habitable long enough for you to die of old age? Do you by any chance have or know any children? Because they will very likely not die of old age.
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GRA
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Re: Denial...was CC- What do we know, when did we know it?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:13 pm

FWIW, the arctic scientist and author of "Brave New Arctic", referenced above, remained unconvinced that the polar warming being recorded couldn't be explained by a natural cycle for many years, IIRR from the late '70s/early '80s until 2003. He explains the accumulating evidence over the years that caused him to change his mind and conclude the cause was anthropogenic. He also describes some of the theories that were advanced that proved to be wrong, or only partly right.

This assumes that people who say they want to be convinced are actually willing to be, as opposed to those who will reject any evidence that contradicts their existing beliefs. Not that anyone has to reach the same conclusion as Serreze, but he does lay out the evidence pro and con, and unlike we laypersons he has been working in that field all this time and knows the research.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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